Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (1): 129-141.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201601010

• Climate Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Features of long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation in South China during summer in 1961-2014

HE Hui1(), LIAO Xueping2, LU Hong1, CHEN Sirong1   

  1. 1. Climate Center of Guangxi, Nanning 530022, China
    2. Guangxi Institute of Meteorological Disaster Reduction, Nanning 530022, China
  • Received:2015-08-06 Revised:2015-11-02 Online:2016-01-31 Published:2016-01-15
  • Supported by:
    Project of Scientific Research and Technology Development in Guangxi, No.1598017-14;Southern China Regional Meteorological Center Scientific and Technological Projects, No.GRMC2014Z04


In this study, summer long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation index (LDFAI) is calculated based on the monthly precipitation data from May to August obtained from 110 weather stations in South China from 1961 to 2014. LDFAI, which compares the precipitation amounts under different disaster conditions, can reflect the features of drought-flood abrupt alternation in South China in summer. The spatial-temporal change of summer LDFAI in South China have been studied by rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis, trend coefficient estimation, linear trend analysis, t-test, and Mann-Kendall test. Results show the following: (1) the overall change trend of the average LDFAI in South China was not remarkable, whereas the LDFAI intensity exhibited significant periodic changes, including two strong periods and a weak period. (2) The summer LDFAI can be divided into five main spatial regions. The analysis of the data from the representative stations in different spatial regions showed that the summer LDFAI values in Region 1 (North Guangdong and Northeast Guangxi) and Region 2 (West Guangdong and Southeast Guangxi) demonstrated downward trends. The decline in Region 1 was significant, and an abrupt decline occurred in 1988. The summer LDFAI values in Region 3 (East Guangdong) and Region 5 (Hainan Island) showed significant upward trends. An abrupt rise occurred in Region 3 in 1980. The LDFAI in Region 4 (West Guangxi) exhibited periodic change features. (3) As regards the interdecadal change features of the LDFAI for the study period, the LDFAI values in Region 1 and Region 2 declined, whereas the amount of precipitation in May and June increased over the years. In the 1990s and 2000s, The LDFAI values in Region 3 and Region 4 were high, and the precipitation amount in July and August were higher than that in other months. In Region 5, the LDFAI increased, and the precipitation in July and August increased over the years as well.

Key words: South China, drought-flood abrupt alternation, spatial-temporal change features, abrupt change