2000-2010年中国不同地区人口密度变化及其影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlxb201412005

Abstract

Abstract:

Studying the change of population distribution and density can provide important basis for regional development and planning. However, the spatial patterns and driving factors of the change of population density in China were not clear yet. Therefore, using the population census data in 2000 and 2010, this study first analyzed the change of population density in China and divided the changes in all 2353 counties into 4 types, consisting of rapid increase, slow increase, slow decrease and rapid decrease. Subsequently, based on the partial least square (PLS) regression method, we recognized the significant influencing factors of population density change among 11 natural and social-economic factors for the whole country and counties with different types of population change. The results showed that: (1) compared to the population density in 2000, the population density in most counties (over 60%) increased by 21 persons per km² on average, while the population density in other counties decreased by 13 persons per km² in 2010. Of all 2353 counties, 860 and 589 counties respectively show rapidly and slowly increasing population density, while 458 and 446 counties show slowly and rapidly decreasing population density, respectively. (2) Among the 11 factors, social-economic factors have impact on population density change more significantly than natural factors. The higher economic development level, better medical condition and stronger communication capability were main pull factors of population increases. The dense population density was the main push factor of population decreases. These conclusions generally clarified the spatial distribution pattern of population change and its influencing factors in China over the past 10 years and could provide reference for the future population planning.

Key words: population density, influencing factors, PLS method, push-pull laws, China

Lu WANG, Zhiming FENG, Yanzhao YANG, Zhen YOU. The change of population density and its influencing factors from 2000 to 2010 in China on county scale[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(12): 1790-1798.

Figures/Tables 6

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References 39

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人口密度变化类型	分级规则
快速增加	F_j> 1
缓慢增加	0 ≤ F_j≤ 1
缓慢降低	-1 ≤ F_j< 0
快速降低	F_j< -1

类型	编号	名称	单位	因子解释	数据来源
自然环境指标	1	地形起伏度	无	分县平均地形起伏度	CGIAR-CSI
	2	单位面积水资源量	10⁴m³/km²	分县单位面积水资源量	统计年鉴^{[27, 28]}
	3	单位面积粮食产量	t/km²	2000年分县单位面积粮食产量	统计年鉴^{[27, 28]}
	4	植被指数	无	2000年分县平均归一化植被指数	GIMMS^{[29, 30]}
	5	多年平均温度	^oC	分县多年平均温度	RESDC
	6	多年平均降水	mm	分县多年平均降水量	RESDC
社会经济指标	7	初始人口密度	人/km²	2000年分县人口密度	统计年鉴^{[27, 28]}
	8	经济密度	10⁴元/km²	2000年分县单位面积国内生产总值 (GDP)	统计年鉴^{[27, 28]}
	9	交通密度	km/km²	2000年分县单位面积交通线长度,包括铁路、公路和内河网道长度	统计年鉴^{[27, 28]}
	10	电话密度	部/km²	2000年分单位面积电话数	统计年鉴^{[27, 28]}
	11	床位密度	张/km²	2000年分县单位面积床位数	统计年鉴^{[27, 28]}

人口密度变化类型	人口密度 (人/km²)	GDP (10⁸元)	电话数 (10⁴部)	床位数 (10⁴张)
快速降低	562.43	23.86	5195.63	941.83
缓慢降低	468.48	27.52	5921.12	1054.13
缓慢增加	541.94	30.42	6731.72	1062.21
快速增加	608.54	62.35	11357.14	1801.03

The change of population density and its influencing factors from 2000 to 2010 in China on county scale

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