Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2007, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (8): 887-896.doi: 10.11821/xb200708011

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Scenar io Analysis on the Replacements of Industr ial Land: The Case Study of Tengfei Economic Development Zone in Changting, Fujian Province

ZONG Yueguang, XU Jiangang, YIN Haiwei   

  1. The Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
  • Received:2006-08-18 Revised:2007-04-20 Online:2007-08-25 Published:2007-08-25
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40471058; National Basic Scientists Training Foundation Project, No. J0630535; The Master Plan of Changting County of Fujian Province


Scenario analyses are usually used for macro-analysis. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. To explore this methodology and make it more suitable for analysis, we use multiple value approach including social, economic, environmental benefits/costs in a decision space and synthesize the land value functions for an actual micro-analysis in the case study. Scenario processes and their characters of industrial land use are compared with that of residential land use by using three scenario patterns namely the best, the worst and the most likely. In the most likely scenario, Tengfei Economic Development Zone, located in Changting County, Fujian Province, would achieve its balance of income and outcome until the end of 16 years. This situation of land use and investment would exceed the budgetary revenue capacity of the local government leading to a serious overdraft scenario. From the curve of the ratio of income and outcome of industrial land use and residential land use, the ratio of residential land use will be 8-10 times over that of industrial land use in the first five years. This ratio will reduce gradually until two folds in the end of 20 years. Accordingly, some parts of industrial land use, such as unused land within two years and used land by those factories which are still in the poor condition within three years in Tengfei Development Zone, should be replaced by residential land use step by step. Therefore, the scale of industrial zone will be reduced from 2.5 km2 to 1-1.5 km2 in order to achieve a high efficiency of land use and a sustainable development further.

Key words: developing zone, industrial land use, scenario analysis approach, land synthesis value, income/outcome ratio