Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2013, Vol. 68 ›› Issue (5): 708-720.

### Responses of characteristic horticulture plant to climate change of Xinjiang

LIU Jingqiang1,2, Wahap HALIK1,3, Hasm ABZ1,2, DANG Jianhua1,2, DENG Baoshan1,2, ZHANG Yuping1,3

1. 1. Key Lab for Oasis Ecosystem of MOE, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
2. College of Resource and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
3. College of Tourism Management, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
• Received:2012-11-28 Revised:2013-03-05 Online:2013-05-20 Published:2013-05-20
• Supported by:

National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41061005; No.41271168; No.U1138303; The Innovation Team Project of the Ministry of Education of China, No.IRT1180

Abstract: Based on the meteorological material of the past 52 years obtained from 54 meteorological stations of Xinjiang, by using univariate regression linear inclination rate, Mann-Kendall abrupt change testing method and inverse distance weighted spatial difference method, we analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of the annual mean temperature, the precipitation above 10oC, and the temperature and precipitation from April to October in Xinjiang and four main horticulture bases. Besides, combined with exponential smoothing and linear trend rate, we analyzed the response of yield and planting area of apple, grape, pear and other kinds of horticulture products to climate change. The results show that there has been a linear growth trend in temperature and precipitation of Xinjiang and four main horticulture bases over the last 52 years. There was an obvious trend of warming and wetting from the mid-to late 1980s and the warm and humid climate trend was more significant in 2000 all over Xinjiang. However, there have been different climate change trends and the spatial and temporal distribution, as the four main horticulture bases are located in different locations. Compared to other horticulture bases, the linear growth rate of precipitation and temperature was the greatest and the precipitation was at its highest level in Yili Valley, the linear trend rate of precipitation was small and the temperature was high in Turpan-Hami Basin. The linear trend rate of temperature and precipitation on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains and Tarim Basin was basically the same, and there was a warming and wetting significant trend in 2000. The warm and humid climate trend was conducive to the improvement of production of characteristic horticulture products, and the effect was more obvious when the climate tended to be warm and wet. Furthermore the temperature increase also promoted the acreage expansion of the thermophile horticulture products, and the horticulture products plant extended from high temperature region to low temperature region. As a result, spatial distribution trends of the horticulture products plant were consistent with those of the four main horticulture bases planned by the local government. However, high temperature and excessive rainfall, especially abrupt changes (increase or decrease) of temperature, precipitation and humidity have a great impact on the horticulture products. Therefore, some concrete measures should be taken to mitigate the impact of extreme climate change on characteristic horticulture products.