Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2012, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (11): 1451-1460.doi: 10.11821/xb201211002

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Assessing Climate Change Impact on Seasonal Drought in Main Rice Cropping Regions in the South of China

MA Xin1, WU Shaohong2, LI Yu'e1, ZHANG Xueyan2, GAO Qingzhu1, WU Yang1   

  1. 1. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, CAAS, Beijing 100083, China;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2012-03-12 Revised:2012-07-18 Online:2012-11-20 Published:2013-01-07
  • Supported by:

    National Key Technologies R&D Program, No.2012BAC19B01

Abstract: Impact of climate change on seasonal drought in main rice cropping regions in China is important for adjusting rice planting pattern and improving adaptation ability. By comparing the level and spatial and temporal distribution of available water and seasonal drought during 1981-2030, this paper assesses impact of climate change on seasonal drought in main rice cropping regions in the south of China. The results are shown as follows. (1) The mean available water of early rice and late rice will increase by more than 10% in the growing season, while mean available water of medium rice will keep invariant. Meanwhile, the spatial distribution of available water of early rice and later rice becomes more homogeneous. This means that, due to climate change, available water of main rice cropping regions generally in the growing season will be more abundant, and spatial distribution of available water is more homogeneous, which is conductive to mitigate seasonal drought. (2) The area of seasonal drought of early rice will reduce by 12,500 km2, medium rice by 80,000 km2, and especially later rice will decrease by 250,000 km2, accounting for 20% of the planting area of later rice. This means that, under climate change, the seasonal drought on the whole will tend to weaken, especially seasonal drought of later rice will obviously be weakened. (3) Based on the relationship between available water from hydrologic circulation process and water demands for crop growing season, the Water Supplies and Demands Index (WSDI) is suitable for assessing the impact of climate change on seasonal drought in main rice cropping regions.

Key words: climate change, rice, seasonal drought, WSDI, VIC model