长江源区地表水资源对气候变化的响应及趋势预测

doi:10.11821/xb201207007

Abstract

Abstract: By using the hydrological and meteorological observational data as well as impact data set (version 2.0) about climate change in China published by the National Climate Center in November 2009, the variations of flow and its climate causes are analyzed in this paper. The results indicate that the surface water resources show an increasing trend in the source region of Yangtze River in recent 51 years, especially after 2004, the trend was very obvious, and there were quasi-periods of 9 years and 22 years; Tibetan Plateau heating field enhanced, plateau monsoon went into a strong period, precipitation increased notably, and glacier melt water increased due to the climate change, all of which are the main climate causes of water resource increase in the source region. Based on the global climate model prediction, in the SRESA1B climate change scenarios, the water resources are likely to increase in this region in the next 20 years.

Key words: climate change, surface water resource, temperature heating field, monsoon, climate model, the source region of Yangtze River

LI Lin, DAI Sheng, SHEN Hongyan, LI Hongmei, XIAO Jianshe. Response of Water Resources to Climate Change and Its Future Trend in the Source Region of the Yangtze River[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(7): 941-950.

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Response of Water Resources to Climate Change and Its Future Trend in the Source Region of the Yangtze River

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