淮河流域极端径流的时空变化规律及统计模拟

doi:10.11821/xb201203011

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the daily runoff data from 20 hydrological stations during 1956-2010 above the Bengbu Sluice in the Huaihe River Basin, run test, trend test and Mann-Kendall test are used to analyze the variation trend of annual maximum runoff series. The annual maximum series (AM) and peaks over threshold series (POT) are selected to describe the extreme distributions of GEV and GPD. Temporal and spatial variations of extreme runoff in the Huaihe River Basin are analyzed. The results show that during the period 1956-2010 in the Huaihe River Basin, annual maximum runoff at 10 stations have a negative trend, while the other 10 stations have a positive trend which is not significant. The maximum runoff event almost occurred in the flood period during the 1960s and 1970s. The extreme runoff events in the Huaihe River Basin mainly occured in the mainstream of the Huaihe River, Huainan mountain areas, and Funiu mountain areas. Through Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, GEV and GPD distributions can be well fitted with AM and POT series respectively.

Key words: Huaihe River Basin, extreme runoff, extreme distribution, threshold selection

DU Hong, XIA Jun, ZENG Sidong, SHE Dunxian, ZHANG Yongyong, YAN Ziqi. Temporal and Spatial Variations and Statistical Models of Extreme Runoff in Huaihe River Basin[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(3): 398-409.

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Temporal and Spatial Variations and Statistical Models of Extreme Runoff in Huaihe River Basin

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