基于Logistic回归模型的北京市水库湿地演变驱动力分析

doi:10.11821/xb201203007

Abstract

Abstract: The reservoir wetland of Beijing, constitutes one of the important eco-systems in Beijing. The driving factors index system of Beijing reservoir wetland landscape evolution in the study area was built in the two aspects of the natural environment and socio-economy. Natural driving factors include precipitation, temperature, entry water and groundwater depth; social economic driving factors include the resident population, urbanization rate and per capita GDP. Using TM images from 1984 to 2010 to extract reservoir wetland's spatial distribution information of Beijing, we analyzed the area of reservoir wetland change laws in nearly 30 years. The driving mechanism of reservoir wetland evolution in the study area was explored by the Logistic regression model in different periods. The results indicated that in different phases, the driving factors and their influence on reservoir wetland evolution had certain differences. During 1984-1998, the leading driving factors were annual average precipitation and entry water index with the contribution rate of Logistic regression being 5.78 and 3.50, respectively, which was mainly affected by natural environmental factors; from 1998 to 2004, the impact of human activities intensified and man-made reservoir wetland reduced, and the main driving factors were the number of residents, groundwater depth and urbanization rate with the contribution rate of Logistic regression 9.41, 9.18, and 7.77, respectively. During 2004-2010, reservoir wetland evolution was impacted by both natural and socio-economic factors, and the dominant driving factors were urbanization rate and precipitation with the contribution rate of 6.62 and 4.22, respectively.

Key words: reservoir wetland, driving force, Logistic regression model, Beijing

LI Hong, GONG Zhaoning, ZHAO Wenji, GONG Huili. Driving Forces Analysis of Reservoir Wetland Evolution in Beijing Based on Logistic Regression Model[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(3): 357-367.

References

[1] Gong Zhaoning, Gong Huili, Zhao Wenji. The Ecological Evolution of Beijing Wetland. Beijing: China Environmental Science Press, 2007. [宫兆宁, 宫辉力, 赵文吉. 北京湿地生态演变研究. 北京: 中国环境科学出版社, 2007.]
[2] Gong Zhaoning, Zhang Yiran, Gong Huili et al. Evolution of wetland landscape pattern and its driving factors in Beijing. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(1): 77-88. [宫兆宁, 张翼然, 宫辉力等. 北京湿地景观格局演变特征与驱动机制分析. 地理学报, 2011, 66(1): 77-88.]
[3] Zhou Xinwei, Gong Huili, Zhao Wenji. Dynamic monitoring and analysis of wetland resources in Beijing. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006, 61(6): 654-662. [周昕薇, 宫辉力, 赵文吉. 北京地区湿地资源动态监测与分析. 地理学报, 2006, 61(6): 654-662.]
[4] Gong Zhaoning, Zhao Wenji, Gong Huili et al. Research on change of wetland resource in Beijing based on remote sensing technology. Science in China: Series E, 2006, 36(Suppl.): 94-103. [宫兆宁, 赵文吉, 宫辉力等.基于遥感技术北京湿地资源变化研究. 中国科学: E辑, 2006, 36(增刊): 94-103.]
[5] Ding Jinshui, Lin Jianxin, Gu Nenkai et al. Studies on reservoir wetlands and its hydroecology protection on Qinghai Plateau. Journal of Hydroecology, 2010, 2(2): 9-16. [丁金水, 林建新, 古嫩凯等. 青海高原水库湿地及水生态保护研究. 水生态学杂志, 2010, 2(2): 9-16.]
[6] Zhang Qiuju, Fu Bojie. Several problems about landscape pattern change research. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2003, 23(3): 264-270. [张秋菊, 傅伯杰. 关于景观格局演变研究的几个问题. 地理科学, 2003, 23(3): 264-270.]
[7] Fu Bojie, Chen Liding, Ma Keming et al. Theory and Application of Landscape Ecology. Beijing: Science Press, 2001.[傅伯杰, 陈利顶, 马克明等. 景观生态学原理及应用. 北京: 科学出版社, 2001.]
[8] Zhou Demin, Gong Huili, Wang Yiyong et al. Study of driving forces of wetland degradation in the Honghe National Nature Reserve in the Sanjiang floodplain, Northeast China. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2009, 14: 101-111.
[9] Guo Yuedong, He Yanfen. The dynamics of wetland landscape and its driving forces in Songnen Plain. Wetland Science, 2005, 3(1): 54-59. [郭跃东, 何艳芬. 松嫩平原湿地动态变化及其驱动力研究. 湿地科学, 2005, 3(1): 54-59.]
[10] Hou Wei, Zhang Shuwen, Zhang Yangzhen et al. Analysis on the shrinking process of wetland in Naoli River Basin of Sanjiang Plain since the 1950s and its driving forces. Journal of Natural Resources, 2004, 19(6): 725-731. [侯伟, 张树文, 张养贞等. 三江平原挠力河流域50 年代以来湿地退缩过程及驱动力分析. 自然资源学报, 2004, 19(6): 725-731.]
[11] Long A J, Waller M P, Stupples P. Driving mechanisms of coastal change. Marine Geology, 2006, 225: 63-84.
[12] Li Qianxiang, Yu Xiubo, Li Jiayong. Analysis on wetland use change in Zhangdu watershed, Hubei Province. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2005, 14(5): 600-604. [李黔湘, 于秀波, 李家永. 湖北省涨渡湖流域湿地变化及其动因分析. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(5): 600-604.]
[13] Zhang Zhifeng, Gong Huili, Zhao Wei et al. Research on dynamic change in wetland resource in Peking Widgeon Lake based on 3S techniques. Remote Sensing Technology and Application, 2003, 18(5): 292-296. [张志锋, 宫辉力, 赵微等. 基于3S技术的北京野鸭湖湿地资源的动态变化研究. 遥感技术与应用, 2003, 18(5): 292-296.]
[14] Gao Changjun, Zhou Demin, Luan Zhaoqing et al. Review on researches of wetland landscape pattern change. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2010, 19(4): 460-464. [高常军, 周德民, 栾兆擎等. 湿地景观格局演变研究评述. 长江流域资源与环境, 2010, 19(4): 460-464.]
[15] Shao Jing'an, Li Yangbing, Wei Chaofu et al. The drivers of landuse change at regional dcale: Assessment and prospects. Advances in Earth Science, 2007, 22(8): 798-809. [邵景安, 李阳兵, 魏朝富等. 区域土地利用变化驱动力研究前景展望. 地球科学进展, 2007, 22(8): 798-809.]
[16] Wang Jichuan, Guo Zhigang. Logistic Regression Model: Methods and Applications. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2001. [王济川, 郭志刚. Logistic回归模型: 方法与应用. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2001.]
[17] Xie Hualin, Li Bo. Driving forces analysis of land-use pattern changes based on Logistic regression model in the farming-pastoral zone: A case study of Ongiud Banner, Inner Mongolia. Geographical Research, 2008, 27(2): 294-304.[谢花林, 李波. 基于Logistic回归模型的农牧交错区土地利用变化驱动力分析. 地理研究, 2008, 27(2): 294-304.]
[18] Liu Rui, Zhu Daolin, Zhu Zhanqiang et al. Analysis of the driving forces of urban sprawl in Dezhou City based on a Logistic regression model. Resources Science, 2009, 31(11): 1919-1926. [刘瑞, 朱道林, 朱战强. 基于Logistic 回归模型的德州市城市建设用地扩张驱动力分析. 资源科学, 2009, 31(11): 1919-1926.]
[19] Jiang Guanghui, Zhang Fengrong. Analysis of the driving forces of change of rural residential areas in Beijing mountainous areas based on Logistic regression model. Transactions of the CSAE, 2007, 23(5): 81-87. [姜广辉, 张凤荣. 基于Logistic回归模型的北京山区农村居民点变化的驱动力分析. 农业工程学报, 2007, 23(5): 81-87.]
[20] Ye Zongyu. Choice in indicators of positive and dimensionless method about multivariate indexes’ comprehensive evaluation. Zhejiang Statistics, 2003, (3): 24-25. [叶宗裕. 关于多指标综合评价中指标正向化和无量纲化方法的选择. 浙江统计, 2003, (3): 24-25.]
[21] Zhao Yudong, Liu Rong. Multivariate Logistic regression collinearity diagnosis analysis. Chinese Health Statistics, 2000, 17(5): 259-261. [赵宇东, 刘嵘. 多元Logistic回归的共线性分析. 中国卫生统计, 2000, 17(5): 259-261.]
[22] Lin Zhenyan. Multi-variable Analysis: Operation and Application of SPSS. Beijing: Peking University Press, 2007. [林震岩. 多变量分析: SPSS的操作与应用. 北京: 北京大学出版社, 2007.]
[23] The Statistical Bureau of Beijing. Beijing Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2009. [北京市统计局. 北京统计年鉴. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2009.]
[24] Investigation Report of Groundwater Resources and Environment in Capital Region. Beijing Institute of Geological Survey, 2003. [首都地区地下水资源和环境调查报告. 北京市地质调查研究院, 2003.]
[25] Jiang Wenlai. On Water Resource Value. Beijing: Science Press, 1998. [姜文来. 水资源价值论. 北京: 科学出版社, 1998.]

Driving Forces Analysis of Reservoir Wetland Evolution in Beijing Based on Logistic Regression Model

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	Enpu MA, Jianming CAI, Jing LIN, Yan HAN, Liuwen LIAO, Wei HAN. Explanation of land use/cover change from the perspective of tele-coupling [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(3): 421-431.
[2]	Zhi QIAO, Ningyu HUANG, Xinliang XU, Zongyao SUN, Chen WU, Jun YANG. Spatio-temporal pattern and evolution of the urban thermal landscape in metropolitan Beijing between 2003 and 2017 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(3): 475-489.
[3]	ZHANG Yanji,QIN Bo,ZHU Chunwu. The impact of urban built environment on criminal behavior and residential security in Beijing [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(2): 238-252.
[4]	WANG Liang,LIU Hui. The comprehensive evaluation of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity based on PS-DR-DP theoretical model [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(2): 340-352.
[5]	ZHOU Lin,TIAN Li,ZHANG Zhen,LI Wei. The street networks evolution in Beijing old city since the establishment of the Republic of China: A syntactical view [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(8): 1433-1448.
[6]	ZHAO Meifeng,QI Wei,LIU Shenghe. Spatial differentiation and formation mechanism of floating population communities in Beijing [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(8): 1494-1512.
[7]	QIN Jing,LI Langping,TANG Mingdi,SUN Yan,SONG Xinrui. Exploring the spatial characteristics of Beijing inbound tourist flow based on geotagged photos [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(8): 1556-1570.
[8]	WANG Haijun, ZHANG Bin, LIU Yaolin, LIU Yanfang, XU Shan, DENG Yu, ZHAO Yuntai, CHEN Yuchen, HONG Song. Multi-dimensional analysis of urban expansion patterns and their driving forces based on the center of gravity-GTWR model: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(6): 1076-1092.
[9]	FENG Jian,ZHONG Yichun. Restructuring of social space in Beijing from 2000 to 2010 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(4): 711-737.
[10]	YANG Siqi,XING Xiaoyue,DONG Weihua,LI Shuaipeng,ZHAN Zhicheng,WANG Quanyi,YANG Peng,ZHANG Yi. The spatio-temporal response of influenza A (H1N1) to meteorological factors in Beijing [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(3): 460-473.
[11]	ZHANG Bailin,GAO Jiangbo,GAO Yang,CAI Weimin,ZHANG Fengrong. Land use transition of mountainous rural areas in China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(3): 503-517.
[12]	HAN Huiran,YANG Chengfeng,SONG Jinping. Impact factors of location choice and spatial pattern evolution of wholesale enterprises in Beijing [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(2): 219-231.
[13]	SUN Wei,MAO Lingxiao. Evolution of research on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cooperative development based on CiteSpace method [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(12): 2378-2391.
[14]	SHEN Lifan,WANG Ye,ZHANG Chun,JIANG Dongrui,LI He. Relationship between built environment of rational pedestrian catchment areas and URT commuting ridership: Evidence from 44 URT stations in Beijing [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(12): 2423-2439.
[15]	ZHANG Xuebo,YU Wei,ZHANG Yali,SONG Jinping,WANG Zhenbo. Spatio-temporal differentiation and its influencing factors of regional economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(10): 1985-2000.