Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2012, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (2): 147-156.doi: 10.11821/xb201202001

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Sector-Specific Spatial Statistic Model for Estimating Inter-regional Trade Flows: A Case Study of Agricultural, Chemical and Electronic Sectors in China

LIU Weidong1,2, LIU Hongguang1,2, FAN Xiaomei3, CHEN Jie4, TANG Zhipeng1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
    4. National Bureau of Statistics of China, Beijing 100826, China
  • Received:2011-10-18 Revised:2011-11-29 Online:2012-02-20 Published:2012-02-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41125005, No.41101118;National Project 973, No.2012CB95570002; Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy ofSciences, No.KACX1-YW-1001; China Postdoctor Science Foundation, No.20100480438

Abstract: Based on theories of regional interactions and competition and the gravity model, this paper first develops a sector-specific spatial statistic model to estimate inter-regional trade flows by employing a geographically weighted regression technique. The model takes into consideration sector-specific input-output relationships. That is, in some sectors there exists strong competition between regions while other sectors may need close inter-regional cooperation in terms of supply linkages. The former case results in less inter-regional trade but the latter witnesses more trade. The model also introduces the spatial lag factor of trade flows between regions. Then, the paper applies the model to estimate inter-provincial trade flows of three sample sectors, i.e., agriculture, chemistry and electronics, with data from the 2007 provincial input-output tables of China. The computing result shows that the sector-specific model can significantly increase the reliability of inter-regional trade flow estimation. It also reveals that the bandwidth of weighting function is a key factor in the sector-specific model; that is, the smaller the bandwidth, the more the trade flows. To a certain degree, the bandwidth reflects the degree of geographical concentration of economic activities while the bandwidth itself is different from sector to sector. Different sectors display different features of inter-regional trade flows. For example, agricultural trade flows are mainly from the inland provinces to the coastal ones and show strong intra-sector competition while trade flows of chemical and electronic sectors take place mainly inside the coastal regions and show an intra-sector cooperation relationship.

Key words: sector-specific spatial statistic model, gravity model, geographically weighted regression, intra-sector trade