三江源区径流演变及其对气候变化的响应

doi:10.11821/xb201201008

Abstract

Abstract: Runoff in the three time scales (non-flooding season, flooding season and annual period) was simulated and tested from 1958 to 2005 at Tangnaihai (Yellow River source region: YeSR), Zhimenda (Yangtze River source region: YaSR) and Changdu (Lancang River source region: LcSR) by hydrological modeling, trend detection and comparative analysis. Also, future runoff variations from 2010 to 2039 at the three outlets were analyzed in A1B and B1 scenarios of CSIRO and NCAR climate model and the impact of climate change was tested. The results showed that the annual and non-flooding season runoff decreased significantly in the YeSR, which decreased the water discharge to the middle and downstream of the Yellow River, and intensified the water shortage in the Yellow River Basin, but the other two regions were not statistically significant in the last 48 years. Compared with the runoff in the baseline (1990s), the runoff in the YeSR will decrease in the following 30 years (2010-2039), especially in the non-flooding season. Thus the water shortage in the middle and downstream of the Yellow River Basin will be serious continuously. The runoff in the YaSR will increase, especially in the flooding season, thus the flood control situation will be severe. The runoff in the LcSR will also be greater than the current runoff, and the annual and flooding season runoff will not change significantly, while the runoff variation in the non-flooding season is uncertain. It will increase significantly in the B1 scenario of CSIRO model but decrease significantly in B1 scenario of NCAR model. Furthermore, the most sensitive region to climate change is the YaSR, followed by the YeSR and LcSR.

Key words: climate change, runoff , SWAT, Mann-Kendall test, Three Rivers Source Region

ZHANG Yongyong, ZHANG Shifeng, ZHAI Xiaoyan, XIA Jun. Runoff Variation in the Three Rivers Source Region and Its Response to Climate Change[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(1): 71-82.

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Runoff Variation in the Three Rivers Source Region and Its Response to Climate Change

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