复杂系统理论与Agent模型在土地变化科学中的研究进展

doi:10.11821/xb201111008

Abstract

Abstract: Based on complex system theory and agent-based models (ABMs), the paper summarizes recent progresses in land change science from the perspective of theory and methodology respectively. Complex system theory is the theoretical basis for carrying out researches on the complex land change issues in the "coupled human and natural systems"; while ABMs, one of the key tools for complex system studies, introduces innovating perspective to traditional land change modeling. The integration of ABMs and land use/cover change models (ABM/LUCC) has achieved several important breakthroughs recently; however, some of the crucial issues remain unsolved, such as the problem of "theory divorced from practice" and the deficiency in cross-site comparison studies. As for current problems, the authors finally have discussion and draw a conclusion that firstly, ABMs should be constructed by the support of complex system theory. Moreover, the natural ABM/LUCC are supposed to explore the comprehensive human-natural interactions in land systems, to predict land system dynamics, and to analyze the consequences of land system change.

Key words: agent-based modeling, coupled human and natural systems, land use and land cover change, land systems

YU Qiangyi, WU Wenbin, TANG Huajun, YANG Peng, CHEN Zhongxin, CHEN Youqi. Complex System Theory and Agent-based Modeling: Progresses in Land Change Science[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(11): 1518-1530.

References

[1] Aspinall R. Editorial: Land use science. Journal of Land Use Science, 2006, 1(1): 1-4.

[2] Global Land Project. Science Plan and Implementation Strategy, 2005: 64.

[3] Cai Yunlon, Li Shuangcheng, Fang Xiuqi. The research forefront of physical geography. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009,64(11): 1363-1374. [蔡运龙, 李双成, 方修琦. 自然地理学研究前沿. 地理学报, 2009, 61(11): 1363-1374.]

[4] Foley J A, DeFries R, Asner G P et al. Global consequences of land use. Science, 2005, 309(5734): 570-574.

[5] Lambin E F, Geist H J. Land-use and Land-cover Change. Local Processes and Global Impacts. Berlin: Springer-Verlag,2006: 222.

[6] Lewis G M, Brabec E. Regional land pattern assessment: Development of a resource efficiency measurement method.Landscape and Urban Planning, 2005, 72(4): 281-296.

[7] Johnson D G. The declining importance of natural resources: Lessons from agricultural land. Resource and EnergyEconomics, 2002, 24(1/2): 157-171.

[8] Zhang S, Zhang B, Zhang L et al. Spatiotemporal evolution of urban land uses in modern urbanization of China.Chinese Geographical Science, 2010, 20(2): 132-138.

[9] Yu Qiangyi, Chen Youqi, Xu Xinguo. Concept discrimination on 'Rural-urban Fringe' in land use science. China LandScience, 2010, 24(8): 46-51. [余强毅, 陈佑启, 许新国. 土地利用科学中的“城乡交错带”概念辨析. 中国土地科学,2010, 24(8): 46-51.]

[10] Cruz M K. A living space: The relationship between land and property in the community. Political Geography, 2010,29(8): 420-421.

[11] Bennett R, Wallace J, Williamson I. Organising land information for sustainable land administration. Land Use Policy,2008, 25(1): 126-138.

[12] Janssen R, van Herwijnen M, Stewart T J et al. Multiobjective decision support for land-use planning. Environmentand Planning B: Planning and Design, 2008, 35(4): 740-756.

[13] Chazdon R L. Beyond deforestation: Restoring forests and ecosystem services on degraded lands. Science, 2008, 320(5882): 1458-1460.

[14] Tan Min, Kong Xiangbin, Duan Jiannan et al. Early-warning system for spatial allocation of the rural-urbanconstruction land in terms of ecological security: A case study on Fangshan District, Beijing. China Land Science,2010, 24(2): 31-37. [谭敏, 孔祥斌, 段建南等. 基于生态安全角度的城镇村建设用地空间预警: 以北京市房山区为例. 中国土地科学, 2010, 24(2): 31-37.]

[15] Wu W, Tang H, Yang P et al. Scenario-based assessment of future food security. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2011, 21(1): 3-17.

[16] Yu Qiangyi, Wu Wenbin, Tang Huajun et al. A food security assessment in APEC based on grain productivity. ScientiaAgricultura Sinica, 2011, 44(13): 2838-2848. [余强毅, 吴文斌, 唐华俊等. 基于粮食生产能力的APEC地区粮食安全评价. 中国农业科学, 2011, 44(13): 2838-2848.]

[17] Turner B L, Lambin E F, Reenberg A. The emergence of land change science for global environmental change andsustainability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2007, 104(52): 20666-20671.

[18] Liu J, Dietz T, Carpenter S R et al. Coupled human and natural systems. Ambio, 2007, 36(8): 639-649.

[19] Gutman G, Janetos A C, Justice C O et al. Land Change Science: Observing, Monitoring and UnderstandingTrajectories of Change on the Earth's Surface: Springer Netherlands, 2004: 461.

[20] Rindfuss R R, Walsh S J, Turner B L et al. Developing a science of land change: Challenges and methodologicalissues. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2004, 101(39): 13976-13981.

[21] Wu Wenbin, Yang Peng, Shibasaki Ryosuke et al. Agent-based model for land-use/cover change: A review. ScientiaGeographica Sinica, 2007, 27(4): 573-578. [吴文斌, 杨鹏, 柴崎亮介等. 基于Agent 的土地利用/土地覆盖变化模型的研究进展. 地理科学, 2007, 27(4): 573-578.]

[22] Waldrop M. Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos. New York: Simon and Schuster,1992: 384.

[23] Axelrod R, Cohen M D. Harnessing Complexity: Organizational Implications of a Scientific Frontier. New York: FreePress, 2000: 208.

[24] Vicsek T. Complexity: The bigger picture. Nature, 2002, 418(6894): 131.

[25] Gallagher R, Appenzeller T. Beyond reductionism. Science, 1999, 284(5411): 79.

[26] McKelvey B. Complexity theory in organization science: Seizing the promise or becoming a fad? Emergence, 1999, 1(1): 5-32.

[27] Byrne D. Complexity Theory and the Social Sciences: An Introduction: Routledge, 1998: 224.

[28] Hemaspaandra L A, Ogihara M. The Complexity Theory Companion: Springer, 2002: 363.

[29] McElroy M W. Integrating complexity theory, knowledge management and organizational learning. Journal ofKnowledge Management, 2000, 4(3): 195-203.

[30] Thrift N. The place of complexity. Theory, Culture & Society, 1999, 16(3): 31-69.

[31] Grimm V, Railsback S F. Individual-based Modeling and Ecology. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005: 480.

[32] Lambin E F, Turner B L, Geist H J et al. The causes of land-use and land-cover change: Moving beyond the myths.Global Environmental Change, 2001, 11(4): 261-269.

[33] Sellers P J, Meeson B W, Hall F G et al. Remote sensing of the land surface for studies of global change:Models-algorithms-experiments. Remote Sensing of Environment, 1995, 51(1): 3-26.

[34] Sangermano F, Eastman J R, Zhu H. Similarity weighted instance-based learning for the generation of transitionpotentials in land use change modeling. Transactions in GIS, 2010, 14(5): 569-580.

[35] Veldkamp A, Lambin E F. Predicting land-use change. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2001, 85(1-3): 1-6.

[36] Chen X. Using remote sensing and GIS to analyse land cover change and its impacts on regional sustainabledevelopment. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2002, 23(1): 107-124.

[37] Rebelo L M, Finlayson C M, Nagabhatla N. Remote sensing and GIS for wetland inventory, mapping and changeanalysis. Journal of Environmental Management, 2009, 90(7): 2144-2153.

[38] Tang Huajun, Wu Wenbin, Yang Peng et al. Recent progresses of land use and land cover change (LUCC) models.Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(4): 456-468. [唐华俊, 吴文斌, 杨鹏等. 土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)模型研究进展. 地理学报, 2009, 64(4): 456-468.]

[39] Hersperger A M, Gennaio M, Verburg P H et al. Linking land change with driving forces and actors: Four conceptualmodels. Ecology and Society, 2010, 15(4): 1.

[40] Nagendra H, Munroe D K, Southworth J. From pattern to process: Landscape fragmentation and the analysis of landuse/land cover change. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2004, 101(2/3): 111-115.

[41] Walker R, Solecki W. Theorizing land-cover and land-use change: The case of the Florida everglades and itsdegradation. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2004, 94(2): 311-328.

[42] Overmars K, de Groot W, Huigen M. Comparing inductive and deductive modeling of land use decisions: Principles, amodel and an illustration from the Philippines. Human Ecology, 2007, 35(4): 439-452.

[43] Rudel T K. How do people transform landscapes? A sociological perspective on suburban sprawl and tropicaldeforestation. American Journal of Sociology, 2009, 115(1): 129-154.

[44] Irwin E G, Geoghegan J. Theory, data, methods: Developing spatially explicit economic models of land use change.Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2001, 85(1-3): 7-24.

[45] Liu Yansui. The contributions of academician Wu Chuanjun to modern agricultural geography in China. ScientiaGeographica Sinica, 2008, 28(1): 1-5. [刘彦随. 吴传钧院士对发展中国农业地理学的贡献. 地理科学, 2008, 28(1):1-5.]

[46] Turner B L, Clark W C, Kates R W et al. The Earth as Transformed by Human Action: Global and Regional Changesin the Biosphere over the Past 300 years. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990: 732.

[47] Li Shuangcheng, Wang Yang, Cai Yunlong. The paradigm transformation of geography from the perspective ofcomplexity sciences. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(11): 1315-1324. [李双成, 王羊, 蔡运龙. 复杂性科学视角下的地理学研究范式转型. 地理学报, 2010, 65(11): 1315-1324.]

[48] Rindfuss R R, Entwisle B, Walsh S J et al. Land use change: Complexity and comparisons. Journal of Land Use Science, 2008, 3(1): 1-10.

[49] Manson S, O Sullivan D. Complexity theory in the study of space and place. Environment and Planning A, 2006, 38(4): 677-692.

[50] Turner B L, Matson P A, McCarthy J J et al. Illustrating the coupled human-environment system for vulnerabilityanalysis: Three case studies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2003, 100(14): 8080-8085.

[51] Parker D C, Hessl A, Davis S C. Complexity, land-use modeling, and the human dimension: Fundamental challengesfor mapping unknown outcome spaces. Geoforum, 2008, 39(2): 789-804.

[52] Phillips J D. Methodology, scale, and the field of dreams. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 1999,89(4): 754-760.

[53] Walsh S J, Evans T P, Welsh W F et al. Scale dependent relationships between population and environment innortheast Thailand. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 1999, 65(1): 97-105.

[54] Milne E, Aspinall R, Veldkamp T. Integrated modelling of natural and social systems in land change science.Landscape Ecology, 2009, 24(9): 1145-1147.

[55] Verburg P H. Simulating feedbacks in land use and land cover change models. Landscape Ecology, 2006, 21(8):1171-1183.

[56] Claessens L, Schoorl J M, Verburg P H et al. Modelling interactions and feedback mechanisms between land usechange and landscape processes. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2009, 129(1-3): 157-170.

[57] Crawford T W, Messina J P, Manson S M et al. Complexity science, complex systems, and land-use research.Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 2005, 32(6): 792-798.

[58] Chen Hai, Yang Weige, Liang Xiaoying et al. Multi-scale modeling of land use based on the MAS from field tovillage: A case study for Mengcha Village of Mizhi County of Shaanxi Province. Geographical Research, 2010, 29(8):1519-1527. [陈海, 杨维鸽, 梁小英等. 基于Multi-Agent System 的多尺度土地利用变化模型的构建与模拟. 地理研究, 2010, 29(8): 1519-1527.]

[59] Goldenfeld N, Kadanoff L P. Simple lessons from complexity. Science, 1999, 284(5411): 87-89.

[60] Batty M, Torrens P M. Modelling and prediction in a complex world. Futures, 2005, 37(7): 745-766.

[61] Brown D G, Aspinall R, Bennett D A. Landscape models and explanation in landscape ecology: A space forgenerative landscape science? The Professional Geographer, 2006, 58(4): 369-382.

[62] Vlassis N. A Concise Introduction to Multiagent Systems and Distributed Artificial Intelligence. San Rafael: Morganand Claypool Publishers, 2007, 84.

[63] Ferber J. Multi-agent Systems: An Introduction to Distributed Artificial Intelligence. Boston: Addison-WesleyLongman, 1999: 509.

[64] Jennings N R. On agent-based software engineering. Artificial Intelligence, 2000, 117(2): 277-296.

[65] Wooldridge M, Jennings N R, Kinny D. The Gaia methodology for agent-oriented analysis and design. AutonomousAgents and Multi-Agent Systems, 2000, 3(3): 285-312.

[66] Couclelis H. Cellular worlds: A framework for modeling micro-macro dynamics. Environment and Planning A, 1985,17(5): 585-596.

[67] Berry B J L, Kiel L D, Elliott E. Adaptive agents, intelligence, and emergent human organization: Capturingcomplexity through agent-based modeling. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2002, 99(Suppl. 3):7187-7188.

[68] Verburg P, Overmars K. Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: Exploring the future ofabandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model. Landscape Ecology, 2009, 24(9): 1167-1181.

[69] Liu Shuyan, Yu Xinxiao, Li Qingyun et al. Land use change in loess hilly region based on CA-Markov model.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2010, 26(11): 297-303. [刘淑燕, 余新晓, 李庆云等.基于CA-Markov模型的黄土丘陵区土地利用变化. 农业工程学报, 2010, 26(11): 297-303.]

[70] Parker D C, Manson S M, Janssen M A et al. Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-coverchange: A review. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2003, 93(2): 314-337.

[71] Brown D G, Xie Y. Spatial agent-based modelling. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 2006, 20(9): 941-943.

[72] Evans T P, Manson S. Space, complexity, and agent-based modeling. Environment and Planning B: Planning andDesign, 2007, 34(2): 196-199.

[73] Happe K, Hutchings N J, Dalgaard T et al. Modelling the interactions between regional farming structure, nitrogenlosses and environmental regulation. Agricultural Systems, 2011, 104(3): 281-291.

[74] Schreinemachers P, Berger T. An agent-based simulation model of human-environment interactions in agriculturalsystems. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2011, 26(7): 845-859.

[75] Polhill J G, Sutherland L, Gotts N M. Using qualitative evidence to enhance an agent-based modelling system forstudying land use change. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2010, 13(2): 10.

[76] Miller B, Breckheimer I, McCleary A et al. Using stylized agent-based models for population-environment research: Acase study from the Galápagos Islands. Population & Environment, 2010, 31(6): 401-426.

[77] Mena C F, Walsh S J, Frizzelle B G et al. Land use change on household farms in the Ecuadorian Amazon: Designand implementation of an agent-based model. Applied Geography, 2011, 31(1): 210-222.

[78] Le Q B, Park S J, Vlek P L G. Land Use Dynamic Simulator (LUDAS): A multi-agent system model for simulatingspatio-temporal dynamics of coupled human-landscape system: 2. Scenario-based application for impact assessment ofland-use policies. Ecological Informatics, 2010, 5(3): 203-221.

[79] Valbuena D, Verburg P, Bregt A et al. An agent-based approach to model land-use change at a regional scale.Landscape Ecology, 2010, 25(2): 185-199.

[80] Pan Lihu, Huang Heqing, Jiang Luguang et al. A case study of the effects of wetland restoration policy with anartificial society model. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(12): 2007-2017. [潘理虎, 黄河清, 姜鲁光等. 基于人工社会模型的退田还湖生态补偿机制实例研究. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(12): 2007-2017.]

[81] Gaube V, Kaiser C, Wildenberg M et al. Combining agent-based and stock-flow modelling approaches in aparticipative analysis of the integrated land system in Reichraming, Austria. Landscape Ecology, 2009, 24(9):1149-1165.

[82] Evans T P, Kelley H. Assessing the transition from deforestation to forest regrowth with an agent-based model of landcover change for south-central Indiana (USA). Geoforum, 2008, 39(2): 819-832.

[83] Entwisle B, Malanson G, Rindfuss R R et al. An agent-based model of household dynamics and land use change.Journal of Land Use Science, 2008, 3(1): 73-93.

[84] Bakker M M, van Doorn A M. Farmer-specific relationships between land use change and landscape factors:Introducing agents in empirical land use modelling. Land Use Policy, 2009, 26(3): 809-817.

[85] Feitosa F, Le Q B, Vlek P L G. Multi-agent simulator for urban segregation (MASUS): A tool to explore alternativesfor promoting inclusive cities. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2011, 35(2): 104-115.

[86] Filatova T, Voinov A, van der Veen A. Land market mechanisms for preservation of space for coastal ecosystems: Anagent-based analysis. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2011, 26(2): 179-190.

[87] Magliocca N, Safirova E, McConnell V et al. An economic agent-based model of coupled housing and land markets(CHALMS). Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2011, 35(3): 183-191.

[88] Ligmann-Zielinska A, Jankowski P. Exploring normative scenarios of land use development decisions with anagent-based simulation laboratory. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2010, 34(5): 409-423.

[89] Chen Y, Li X, Liu X et al. An agent-based model for optimal land allocation (AgentLA) with a contiguity constraint.International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 2010, 24(8): 1269-1288.

[90] Zhang H, Zeng Y, Bian L et al. Modelling urban expansion using a multi agent-based model in the city of Changsha.Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2010, 20(4): 540-556.

[91] Zellner M L, Riolo R L, Rand W et al. The problem with zoning: Nonlinear effects of interactions between locationpreferences and externalities on land use and utility. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 2010, 37(3):408-428.

[92] Robinson D T, Brown D G. Evaluating the effects of land-use development policies on ex-urban forest cover: Anintegrated agent-based GIS approach. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 2009, 23(9):1211-1232.

[93] An L, Liu J. Long-term effects of family planning and other determinants of fertility on population and environment:Agent-based modeling evidence from Wolong Nature Reserve, China. Population & Environment, 2010, 31(6):427-459.

[94] Manson S M, Evans T. Agent-based modeling of deforestation in southern Yucatán, Mexico, and reforestation in theMidwest United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2007, 104(52): 20678-20683.

[95] Parker D C, Meretsky V. Measuring pattern outcomes in an agent-based model of edge-effect externalities usingspatial metrics. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2004, 101(2/3): 233-250.

[96] Matthews R, Gilbert N, Roach A et al. Agent-based land-use models: A review of applications. Landscape Ecology,2007, 22(10): 1447-1459.

[97] Polhill J G, Parker D, Brown D et al. Using the ODD protocol for describing three agent-based social simulationmodels of land use change. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2008, 11(2): 30.

[98] Crooks A, Castle C, Batty M. Key challenges in agent-based modelling for geo-spatial simulation. Computers,Environment and Urban Systems, 2008, 32(6): 417-430.

[99] Smajgl A, Brown D G, Valbuena D et al. Empirical characterisation of agent behaviours in socio-ecological systems.Environmental Modelling & Software, 2011, 26(7): 837-844.

[100] Parker D C, Entwisle B, Rindfuss R R et al. Case studies, cross-site comparisons, and the challenge ofgeneralization: Comparing agent-based models of land-use change in frontier regions. Journal of Land Use Science,2008, 3(1): 41-72.

[101] Grimm V, Berger U, Bastiansen F et al. A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models.Ecological Modelling, 2006, 198: 115-126.

[102] Grimm V, Berger U, DeAngelis D L et al. The ODD protocol: A review and first update. Ecological Modelling,2010, 221(23): 2760-2768.

[103] Parker D, Brown D, Polhill J G et al. Illustrating a new 'conceptual design pattern' for agent-based models and landuse via five case studies: The MR POTATOHEAD framework//Paredes A L, Iglesias C H. Agent-based Modellelingin Natural Resource Management. Valladolid: Universidad de Valladolid, 2008: 29-62.

[104] Houet T, Verburg P, Loveland T. Monitoring and modelling landscape dynamics. Landscape Ecology, 2010, 25(2):163-167.

Complex System Theory and Agent-based Modeling: Progresses in Land Change Science

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 9

Metrics

Comments

[1]	GE Quansheng, FANG Chuanglin, JIANG Dong. Geographical missions and coupling ways between human and nature for the Beautiful China Initiative [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(6): 1109-1119.
[2]	SUN Jing, LIU Jianguo, YANG Xinjun, ZHAO Fuqiang, QIN Yuchu, YAO Yingying, WANG Fang, LUN Fei, WANG Jiejing, QIN Bo, LIU Tao, ZHANG Conglin, HUANG Baorong, CHENG Yeqing, SHI Jinlian, ZHANG Jinsong, TANG Huajun, YANG Peng, WU Wenbin. Sustainability in the Anthropocene: Telecoupling framework and its applicationss [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(11): 2408-2416.
[3]	Xuezhen ZHANG, Jiyuan LIU, Zhe XIONG, Hongwen ZHANG. Simulated effects of agricultural development on surface air temperature over Central and Eastern China in the late 20th century [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(9): 1423-1433.
[4]	XUE Ling, WENG Jin. Dynamic Simulation on Spatial Structure of Metropolitan Commerce Based on Monopolistic Competition Model [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(8): 938-948.
[5]	TANG Huajun, WU Wenbin, YANG Peng, CHEN Youqi, Peter H. VERBURG. Recent Progresses of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) Models [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(4): 456-468.
[6]	BIAN Zhengfu, ZHANG Yanping. Land Use Changes in Xuzhou Coal Mining Area [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006, 61(4): 349-358.
[7]	YANG Guishan. Land Use and Land Cover Change and Regional Economic Development: The Revelation of the Change in Cropland Area in the Yangtze River Delta during the Past 50 Years [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(7s): 41-46.
[8]	LIANG Tao, ZHANG Xiumei, ZHANG Shen, YU Xingxiu, WANG Hao. Nitrogen Elements Transferring Processes and Fluxes under Different Land Use in West Tiaoxi Catchment [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(4): 389-396.
[9]	XU Xue-gong, CHEN Xiao-ling, GUO Hong-hai, LIN Hui-ping. A Study on Land Use and Land Cover Quality Change:Taking Yellow River Delta as a Case [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2001, 56(6): 640-648.