Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (9): 1200-1210.doi: 10.11821/xb201109005

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The Trend Analysis and Statistical Distribution of Extreme Rainfall Events in the Huaihe River Basin in the Past 50 Years

SHE Dunxian1,2, XIA Jun1, ZHANG Yongyong1, DU Hong3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related land Surface Processes, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. State key laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
  • Received:2011-05-16 Revised:2011-06-07 Online:2011-09-20 Published:2011-11-04
  • Supported by:

    National Basic Research Program of China, No.2010CB428406; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41071025

Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data from 27 meteorological stations in the Huaihe river basin during 1960-2009, we analyzed the trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in this area. The annual maximum series (AM) and peak over threshold series (POT) are selected to describe the extreme distribution. The results show that positive trend of annual maximum precipitation is detected in most of the stations, only a small number of stations are found to be negative during the past five decades, and neither of the positive or negative trend is significant. The daily maximum precipitation events during a year almost occurred in the flood seasons of the 1960s-1970s. By the L-moments method, the parameters of three extreme distributions, which are GEV, GP and Gamma, are estimated. From the results of goodness of fit test and K-S test, we found that AM series can be better fitted by GEV model and POT series can be better fitted by GP model. In comparison with the precipitation amounts at different return levels, we found that the values obtained from POT series is slightly larger than the values fromAM series, and they can better fit the observed values in the Huaihe River Basin.

Key words: Huaihe River, extreme precipitation, L-moments method, K-S test