Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (3): 396-406.doi: 10.11821/xb201103012

Previous Articles     Next Articles

A Review on Uncertainty Analysis of Large-scale Hydrological Cycle Modeling System

SONG Xiaomeng1, ZHAN Chesheng2, KONG Fanzhe1, XIA Jun2   

  1. 1. School of Resource and Geoscience, China University of Mining & Technology, Xuzhou 221008, Jiangsu, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2010-10-18 Revised:2010-12-07 Online:2011-03-20 Published:2011-03-20
  • Supported by:

    National Key Basic Research Program of China (973 Program), No.2010CB428403; National Grand Science and Technology Special Project of Water Pollution Control and Improvement, No.2009ZX07210-006

Abstract: The uncertainties in hydrological modelling come from four major sources: uncertainties in input data and parameters, uncertainties in model structure, uncertainties in analysis method and the initial and boundary conditions. Much attention has been paid to the uncertainty issues in hydrological modelling due to their great effects on prediction, and also many methods are applied to uncertainty quantification in the hydrological model. In this paper, we reviewed the recent advances on the uncertainty analysis approaches in the large-scale complex hydrological model, such as, large-scale hydrological system coupled with the land-atmosphere model. And then the PSUADE and its uncertainty quantification method were introduced, which will be a useful tool and platform for integration research in uncertainty analysis of large complex hydrological models.

Key words: uncertainty analysis, hydrological cycle modeling, land-atmosphere coupling, large scale, PSUADE