Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (1): 3-12.doi: 10.11821/xb201101001

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Spatial Variability of Probability Distribution of Extreme Precipitation in Xinjiang

ZHANG Qiang1,2, LI Jianfeng1,2, CHEN Xiaohong1,2, BAI Yungang3   

  1. 1. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    2. Guangdong University Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Security in South China, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    3. Xinjiang Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Urumqi 830049, China
  • Received:2010-09-12 Revised:2010-10-22 Online:2011-01-25 Published:2011-03-11
  • Supported by:

    Xinjiang Technology Innovative Program, No.200931105; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41071020; Program for Outstanding Young Teachers of the Sun Yat-sen University, No.2009-37000-1132381

Abstract: Daily precipitation of 53 rain stations in Xinjiang during 1957-2009 is analyzed and 8 extreme precipitation indices are defined in this study. We use Kolmogorov-Smimov method to confirm the most fitted probability distributions and evaluate the ten-year return periods values. Based on that, a nonparametric estimation procedure for Copula and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) method are used to calculate joint distribution of 2 precipitation indices. Then we comprehensively analyze the spatial variability of probability distribution of one precipitation index and joint distribution of two indices after 1980. The results show that: (1) North Xinjiang is wetter than South Xinjiang. The probability of extreme heavy precipitation is great in North Xinjiang, while that of extreme slight precipitation is great in South Xinjiang. In addition, the precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains is more than that in plain areas. (2) The spatial distribution of the probability of the event that extreme heavy precipitation and extreme slight precipitation occur in the same year is very complex. In terms of the days of precipitation, the probability in Tianshan Mountains is greater than that in plain areas. In terms of the total extreme precipitation, it is greater in plain areas. In terms of the precipitation intensity, it is greater on the southern slope of Tianshan Mountains. (3) There are relations between probability distribution of drought-flood and terrain: Tianshan Mountains is the dividing line of the occurrence of drought-flood, and the plain areas are prone to drought-flood disasters than the mountain regions. This study is of significance to get a better understanding of the droughtflood and scientific water resources management in arid and semi arid areas.

Key words: extreme precipitation, joint distribution, Copula, arid and semi arid areas, Xinjiang