中国食物供给能力分析

doi:10.11821/xb201010008

Abstract

Abstract:

The actual food provision of China is calculated by using production data (survey data and statistical data) of cropland, grassland and aquatic ecosystems as well as import and export food data. Through the food-nutrition converting formula, we can calculate the total food nutrition production of China during 1998-2004. Taking the year of 2004 as an example, China can provide 1.601 × 10¹⁵ kcal (kilocalories) of food energy, 6.163 × 10⁴ million kg of protein and 2.717×10⁴ million kg of fat, in which 1.454×10¹⁵ kcal of food energy, 4.996×10⁴ million kg of protein and 2.074×10⁴ million kg of fat are from the terrestrial ecosystems-- cropland, grassland and inland-aquatic ecosystems. Productions of food energy, protein and fat from terrestrial ecosystems amount for 32.46% , 38.33% and 41.12% of their potential respectively, implying that there will be some increasing space of actual food provisions. China could supply food energy, protein and fat for 1912 million persons, 2084 million persons and 1103 million persons respectively under full well-to-do life in 2004. According to the nutrition goal and the forecasted population of 2010 and 2020, provisions of food energy and protein are theoretically sufficient, while food fat is deficient, implying that production of fat and oil food needs enhancement. It is also found that a majority of the total food is supplied by cropland, although the proportion has a decreasing trend, from 84.66% in 1998 to 74.72% in 2004. Food supplied by the grassland and aquatic ecosystem accounts for 4.83%-5.80% and 6.02%-7.51% , respectively. The proportion of net-import food has an increasing trend, from 4.04% in 1998 to 13.82% in 2004. Food-population-provision model and nutrients-balancing model are used to calculate the population that China can support. Results show that if foods on the first trophic level such as grain, beans and oil-crops were appropriately converted into foods on the second trophic level such as meats, China can supply food for 1.534, 1.500 and 1.411 billion people under primary well-to-do life, full well-to-do life and well-off life respectively in 2004. This means that China's food supply is sufficient if food planting and food consumption would be restructured.

Key words: China, food security, food provision, food nutrition, balancing model

WANG Qing, YUE Tianxiang, LU Yimin, DU Zhengping, XIN Xiaoping. An Analysis of the Capacity of China's Food Provision[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(10): 1229-1240.

References

[1] Rosegrant M W, Cline S A. Global food security: challenges and policies. Science, 2003, 302(5652): 1917.

[2] Battisti D. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science, 2009, 323(5911): 240.

[3] Salih M A M. Governance of food security in the 21st century//Hans G B, úrsula O S, John G. Facing Global Environmental Change. New York: Springer-Verlag, 2009: 501-507.

[4] Munns R. Editorial: Food security, climate change and biofuels: Integrative plant biology is now in the spotlight. Functional Plant Biology, 2008, 35(8): iii.

[5] Sandin P. The precautionary principle and food safety. Journal für Verbraucherschutz und Lebensmittelsicherheit, 2006, 1 (1): 2-4.

[6] Macer Darryl R J, Bhardwaj Minakshi, Maekawa Fumi et al. Ethical opportunities in global agriculture, fisheries, and forestry: The role for FAO. Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics, 2003, 16(5): 479-504.

[7] Funk Chris C, Brown Molly E. Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security. Food Security, 2009, 1(3): 271-289.

[8] Zhi Gang, Qing Ying. How much are the real reserve amounts of global food, oil, and coal? Party Forum, 2008, (12) 55-55.

[之刚, 清颖. 全球粮食,石油,煤炭储量到底有多少? 党政论坛, 2008, (12): 55-55.]

[9] FAO. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2009. Rome, 2009.

[10] Xu Shiwei. The study on the food development and regional comparison in China
[D]. Beijing: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 2001.

[许世卫. 中国食物发展与区域比较研究
[D]. 北京: 中国农业科学院, 2001.]

[11] Xu Shiwei. The situation and countermeasures of food security in China. Forum on Science and Technology in China, 2007, (11): 116-119, 131.

[许世卫. 中国食物安全现状与对策. 中国科技论坛, 2007, (11): 116-119, 131.]

[12] Ren Jizhou, Lin Huilong, Hou Xiangyang. Developing the agro-grassland system to insure food security of China. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2007, 40(3): 614-621.

[任继周, 林惠龙, 侯向阳. 发展草地农业确保中国食物安全. 中国农业科学, 2007, 40(3): 614-621.]

[13] Tao Fulu, Yokozawa M, Liu Jiyuan et al. Climate change, land use change, and China's food security in the twenty-first century: An integrated perspective. Climatic Change, 2009, 93(3/4): 433-445.

[14] Lin Yifu. The past and the future of China's grain provision ability. Strategy and Management, 1998, (4): 82-90.

[林毅夫. 中国粮食供给能力的过去与未来. 战略与管理, 1998, (4): 82-90.]

[15] Liu Yansui, Wu Chuanjun. Situation of land-water resources and analysis of sustainable food security in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2005, 17(3): 270-275.

[刘彦随, 吴传钧. 中国水土资源态势与可持续食物安全. 自然资源学报, 2005, 17(3): 270-275.]

[16] Ma Qiang. Study on China's grain production capacity and food security. Agricultural Economy, 2006, (8): 3-5.

[马强. 中国粮食综合生产能力与粮食安全问题研究. 农业经济, 2006, (8): 3-5.]

[17] Tao Fulu, Yokozawa M, Zhang Zhao et al. Remote sensing of crop production in China by production efficiency models: Models comparisons, estimates and uncertainties. Ecological Modelling, 2005, 183(4): 385-396.

[18] Xiong Wei, Lin Erda, Ju Hui et al. Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security. Climatic Change, 2007, 81(2): 205-221.

[19] Ye Liming, Ranst E V. Production scenarios and the effect of soil degradation on long-term food security in China. Global Environmental Change, 2009, 19: 464-481.

[20] Bi Jiye, Zhu Daolin, Wang Xiufen et al. GIS based study on grain productivity and resources utilization efficiency at county level in China. Transactions of the CSAE, 2008, 24(1): 94-100.

[毕继业, 朱道林, 王秀芬等. 基于GIS 的县域粮食生产资源利用效率评价. 农业工程学报, 2008, 24(1): 94-100.]

[21] Cai Yunlong, Fu Zeqiang, Dai Erfu. The minimum area per capita of cultivated land and its implication for the optimization of land resource allocation. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(2): 127-134.

[蔡运龙, 傅泽强, 戴尔阜. 区域最小人均耕地面积与耕地资源调控. 地理学报, 2002, 57(2): 127-134.]

[22] Feng Zhiming, Yang Yanzhao, Zhang Jing. The land carrying capacity of China based on man-grain relationship. Journal of Natural Resources, 2008, 23(5): 865-875.

[封志明, 杨艳昭, 张晶. 中国基于人粮关系的土地资源承载力研究: 从分县到全国. 自然资源学报, 2008, 23(5): 865-875.]

[23] Yin Peihong, Fang Xiuqi. Assessment on vulnerable regions of food security in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 63(10): 1064-1072.

[殷培红, 方修琦. 中国粮食安全脆弱区的识别及空间分异特征. 地理学报, 2008. 63(10): 1064-1072.]

[24] Lv Xinye. The study on food security and early warning system in China
[D]. Beijing: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 2006.

[吕新业. 我国食物安全及预警研究
[D]. 北京: 中国农业科学院, 2006.]

[25] State Council. Outline for the development of food and nutrition in China (2001-2010). Acta Nutrimenta Sinica, 2002, 24(4): 337-341.

[国务院. 中国食物与营养发展纲要(2001-2010 年). 营养学报, 2002, 24(4): 337-341.]

[26] Yue Tianxiang, Tian Yongzhong, Liu Jiyuan et al. Surface modeling of human carrying capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in China. Ecological Modelling, 2008, 214(2/3/4): 168-180.

[27] Tian Yongzhong. Assessment of potential food provisioning services of terrestrial ecosystems in China based on grid-cells
[D]. Beijing: Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2004.

[田永中. 基于栅格的中国陆地生态系统食物供给功能评估
[D]. 北京: 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 2004.]

[28] Lu Liangshu, Liu Zhicheng. Long-term Strategy of China's Food Development. Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 1993.

[卢良恕, 刘志澄. 中国中长期食物发展战略. 北京: 农业出版社, 1993.]

[29] Yue Tiangxiang, Wang Qing, Lu Yimin et al. Change trends of food provisions in China. Global and Planetary Change, 2010 (in Press).

[30] Feng Zhiming, Chen Baiming. Dietary levels of future population in China. Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1992, (3): 21-26.

[封志明, 陈百明. 中国未来人口的膳食营养水平. 中国科学院院刊, 1992, (3): 21-26.

[31] Cao Mingkui, Ma Shijun, Han Chunru. Potential productivity and human carrying capacity of an agro-ecosystem: An analysis of food production potential of China. Agricultural Systems, 1995, 47: 387-414.

[32] Chen Baiming. Comprehensive Productive Capacity and Population-carrying Capacity of Agricultural Resources in China
[D]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2001.

[陈百明. 中国农业资源综合生产能力与人口承载能力
[D]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2001.]

[33] Fan Jiangwen, Zhong Huaping, Harris W et al. Carbon storage in the grasslands of China based on field measurements of above-and below-ground biomass. Climatic Change, 2008, 86(3): 375-396.

[34] Xin Xiaoping, Zhang Baohui, Li Gang et al. Variation in spatial pattern of grassland biomass in China from 1982 to 2003. Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(9): 1582-1592.

[辛晓平, 张保辉, 李刚等. 1982-2003 年中国草地生物量时空格局变化研究. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(9): 1582-1592.]

[35] Lu Bu, Chen Yinjun, Wu Kai et al. Analysis and forecast for the potentiality of grain unit yield in the middle-long term in China. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2005, 26(2): 1-5.

[卢布, 陈印军, 吴凯等. 我国中长期粮食单产潜力的分析预测. 中国农业资源与区划, 2005, 26(2): 1-5.]

An Analysis of the Capacity of China's Food Provision

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

[1]	LI Gang, XUE Shuyan, MA Xueyao, ZHOU Junjun, XU Tingting, WANG Jiaobei. Spatio-temporal pattern evolution and formation mechanism of missing person incidents in China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 310-325.
[2]	GU Hengyu, SHEN Tiyan. Spatial evolution characteristics and driving forces of Chinese highly educated talents [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 326-340.
[3]	ZHU Shengjun, JIN Wenwan. Local export variety, regional institutions and firm related diversification [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 398-414.
[4]	JIN Fengjun, YAO Zuolin, CHEN Zhuo. Development characteristics and construction prospects for an integrated economic zone in the South China Sea Region [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 428-443.
[5]	SUN Hongri, LIU Yanjun, ZHOU Guolei. The spatiotemporal differentiation and mechanisms of traffic dominance in Northeast China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 444-458.
[6]	GE Quansheng, ZHU Huiyi. Changes of the physical and human geographical environment in China during the past 2000 years [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(1): 3-14.
[7]	ZHANG Xinghang, ZHANG Baiping, WANG Jing, YU Fuqin, ZHAO Chao, YAO Yonghui. North-south transect series in vegetation of eastern China's north-south transitional zone and their significance for determining climate dividing line [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(1): 30-43.
[8]	LI Zhe, DING Yongjian, CHEN Aijiao, ZHANG Zhihua, ZHANG Shiqiang. Characteristics of warming hiatus of the climate change in Northwest China from 1960 to 2019 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1845-1859.
[9]	GUO Zecheng, WEI Wei, SHI Peiji, ZHOU Liang, WANG Xufeng, LI Zhenya, PANG Sufei, XIE Binbin. Spatiotemporal changes of land desertification sensitivity in the arid region of Northwest China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1948-1965.
[10]	AO Rongjun, CHANG Liang. Influencing mechanism of regional ageing in China based on the Structural Equation Model [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(8): 1572-1584.
[11]	SONG Zhouying, ZHU Qiaoling. Spatio-temporal pattern and driving forces of urbanization in China's border areas [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(8): 1603-1616.
[12]	MA Chunyue, Mamat Sawut, YAO Jie, Gulnur Isak. Spatio-temporal changes of cotton production in China from 1950 to 2015 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(8): 1699-1710.
[13]	DENG Mingjiang, LONG Aihua, LI Jiang, DENG Xiaoya, ZHANG Pei. Theoretical analysis of "natural-social-trading" ternary water cycle mode in the inland river basin of Northwest China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1333-1345.
[14]	ZHENG Jingyun, ZHANG Xuezhen, LIU Yang, HAO Zhixin. The assessment on hydroclimatic changes of different regions in China at multi-scale during the past millennium [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1432-1450.
[15]	TAO Zexing, GE Quansheng, WANG Huanjiong. Spatio-temporal variations in the thermal requirement of the first flowering dates of Salix babylonica and Ulmus pumila in China during 1963-2018 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1451-1464.