Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (9): 1121-1129.doi: 10.11821/xb201009009

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Scenario Simulation of Urban Land Use Allocation and Scheme Evaluation Based on GIS: A Case Study of Taicang City

QIN Xianhong1,2,3,4, DUAN Xuejun1, YANG Jian4   

  1. 1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. Jiangsu Engineering Consulting Center, Nanjing 210003, China;
    4. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
  • Received:2010-01-18 Revised:2010-04-10 Online:2010-09-20 Published:2010-09-20
  • Supported by:

    Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41071085; Knowledge Innovation Program of CAS, No. kzcx2-yw-321; Previous Researching Program for Taicang City's Strategy Planning, 2007-2030]


Urban land use allocation has been the top concern for city planners in the process of urban strategy planning for a long time. In the past, most of urban land-use layout schemes were formed by city planners' intuition, simply layers-overlapping and limited public participation. These methods just considered very few main factors and neglected many other factors that may also determine the spatial background differences, so schemes were often modified time and time again. With economic and social development, urban planning has become more and more complicated, and previous methods cannot meet our demand now. What's more, China' new urban planning law stresses that the land-use layout scheme should be made scientifically and accurately, so it is very necessary to find a more efficient method for urban land-use layout scenario simulation and scheme evaluation. Taking Taicang City as an example, this study discusses the technical process of this method by exploring the spatial analysis function of GIS: Firstly, based on the existing research of Urban Future Model, it builds a more practical model for urban spatial expansion simulation, considering Chinese characteristics especially the real situation of the study area, Then it generates three land-use layout schemes on the basis of land use evaluation, scenario analysis and urban spatial expansion simulation. Finally, the study evaluates these land-use layout schemes by introducing multiple-target-arrive-matrix method from the aspects of agricultural safety, ecological safety, geological hazards and flood disasters, and then chooses the most optimal plan as the reference scheme of the urban strategy planning. Results show that this method has greatly improved the efficiency of urban land-use layout scheme making, and the outcome of selected reference scheme is very similar to that of the final planning scheme.

Key words: land use arrangement, scenario simulation, scheme evaluation, GIS, Taicang City