Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (6): 643-655.doi: 10.11821/xb201006002

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Form Scenario Analysis Using Constrained Cellular Automata

LONG Ying1, 2, SHEN Zhen-jiang3, MAO Qi-zhi1, DANG An-rong1   

  1. 1. School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
    2. Beijing Institute of City Planning, Beijing 100045, China;
    3. School of Environment Design, Kanazawa University, Kanazawa 920-1192, Japan
  • Received:2009-07-01 Revised:2010-03-11 Online:2010-06-25 Published:2010-08-04
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.50678088; Technical Supporting Programs Funded by Ministry of Science & Technology of China, No.2006BAJ14B08


Scenario analysis has been widely applied in the realm of urban and regionalplanning. In most of current scenario analysis researches of urban growth, developing policiesare set as the input scenario conditions to generate various urban forms, which can bereferenced by policy makers and urban planners. This paper reverses the line of currentscenario analysis for urban growth, in which the term of form scenario analysis (FSA), aspatial explicit approach, is novelly defined, employing the urban form as the scenariocondition and aiming at identifying whether any policies set can be implemented to realizethe predefined form. If yes, what the detailed policy implications are for the scenario formshould be answered. A constrained cellular automata model (CA) is developed for FSA,which borrows the routine model calibration method of constrained CA using historicalobserved forms from existing literatures. Four planned schemes of Beijing Master Plan 2020for the Beijing Metropolitan Area are analyzed using constrained CA to test FSA approach,and the corresponding required policy parameters are generated, together with policyimplications for the study area. FSA is proved to be suitable for urban planning practice.

Key words: cellular automata, urban form, desired future, urban planning, Beijing