Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (5): 515-524.doi: 10.11821/xb201005001

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Identification of the Susceptible Regions to Climate Change Impact on Grain Yield Per Unit Area in China

YIN Pei-hong1,2; FANG Xiuqi2; ZHANG Xue-zhen2,3 QI Fa-quan4   

  1. 1. Policy Research Center for Environment and Economy; Ministry of Environmental Protection; Beijing 100029; China; 
    2. School of Geography; Beijing Normal University; Beijing 100875; China; 
    3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research; CAS; Beijing 100101; China; 
    4. School of Information; Renmin University of China; Beijing 100872; China
  • Received:2009-07-23 Revised:2010-01-31 Online:2010-05-25 Published:2010-05-25
  • Supported by:

    The National Key Technology R&D Program, No.2008BAK50B07-03

Abstract:

Based on the statistic agricultural data with a county resolution and monthly mean temperature and precipitation data at 730 national basic weather stations for the period 1985-2004, it is focused in this paper to identify the susceptible regions to climate change on grain yield per unit. The following main conclusions can be drawn. (1) The linearity trends of grain yield per unit sown-area have increased remarkably in most regions since 1985, especially in northern China. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) reveals that this kind of spatial pattern has high correlation with the change of temperature from April to October (α = 0.01). The impacts of precipitation change are less than those of temperature change in the corresponding period. Most notable yield-increased regions sensitive to the temperature change in April to October are located at the climate transitional zones in China. The fluctuation of temperature, as well as that of precipitation, plays important roles in changes of grain yield per unit sown-area. (2) 137 in 240 districts where the linearity trends of grain yield per unit sown-area are significantly (α = 0.05) subject to the changes of temperature from April to October analyzed by cointergration (EG-test), and most of them are located in the transitional zones of topography and the Changjiang River Valley. (3) There are 41.6% of valid statistic districts where grain yield is subject to both the changes of temperature from April to October and precipitation from May to September analyzed by cointergration (EG-test). Most of them are distributed in the three kinds of regions, with the largest one lying between the borderline of summer monsoon and the sideline of Chinese population geography from the Heihe City in Heilongjiang Province to Tengchong City in Yunnan Province, in which food shortage regions are superior in numbers; grain yield per unit shows high fluctuation with the stable amount of sown-area in Jilin, eastern Liaoning, Henan and Anhui, of which the amount of grain production is susceptible to climate change and are main grain-surplus regions in China. It shows that the stability of food production in China has declined in these regions over recent 20 years due to climate change in the corresponding period.

Key words: susceptibility, climate change, food security, cointergration, China

CLC Number: 

  • S16