Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (3): 301-312.doi: 10.11821/xb201003005

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Assessing the Climate Risk to Citrus in Subtropics of China

DUAN Hai-lai1, 2, QIAN Huai-sui1, DU Yao-dong2   

  1. 1. School of Geographical Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China;
    2. Climate Center of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510080, China
  • Received:2009-12-07 Revised:2010-01-22 Online:2010-03-30 Published:2010-03-30
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Sciences Foundation of China, No.40771033

Abstract:

Based on the citrus temperature, precipitation, sunlight and climate risk degree, the article divides subtropics of China into three types: the low risk region, the medium risk region and the high risk region. The citrus temperature risk increases with increasing latitude (except for west mountainous area of subtropics of China). The citrus precipitation risk in the central part of subtropics of China is higher than that in the northern and western parts. The distributions of citrus sunlight risk are not consistent to those of the citrus precipitation risk. The citrus climate risk is mainly influenced by temperature. There is latitudinal zonal law for the distribution of the climate risk, that is, the climate risk increases with increasing latitude. At the same time the climate risk in mountainous area is high and that in eastern plain area is low. There are differences in the temporal and spatial changes of the citrus climate. In recent 46 years, the citrus climate risk presents a gradual increasing trend in subtropics of China, especially it has been increasing fast since the 1980s. Because of the global warming, the low risk region in the eastern and southern parts has a gradual decreasing trend, however, the high risk region in the northern and western parts has an increasing trend and the high risk region has been extending eastward and southward. The article analyses the distribution of the citrus climate risk degree of reduction rates of >10%, >20% and >30% in subtropics of China, and studies their changes in different time periods. Results show that the risk is increasing from southeast to northwest.

Key words: climate risk degree, climate change, climate risk dynamic assessment model, climate suitability model, citrus, subtropics of China