Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (3): 293-300.doi: 10.11821/xb201003004

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Temporal and Spatial Distributions of Hourly Rain Intensity and Recurrence Periods in Eastern and Central China

YAO Li1, ZHAO Sheng-rong1, ZHAO Cui-guang1, ZHOU Bing2, ZHANG Jing3, XUE Feng1   

  1. 1. National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China;
    2. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;
    3. The Department of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
  • Received:2009-09-12 Revised:2010-01-20 Online:2010-03-30 Published:2010-03-30
  • Supported by:

    China Meteorological Administration Project for New Technique, No.CMATG2008M03; ChinaMeteorological Administration Infrastructural Project, No.[2008]164


Based on the observed hourly precipitation data over China from 1991 to 2005, thetemporal and spatial distributions of hourly rain intensity and the recurrence periods for 50 or100 years are analyzed by using probability distribution, statistical test and extreme valueanalysis. The results show that for the purposes of the rain intensity more than 4 mmh-1, themaximum values are mainly distributed in the south coastal areas. The maximum value ofhourly rain intensity is 60-80 mm h-1 in most parts south of the Yangtze River, and 80-90 mmh-1 in the coastal areas. The diurnal variation of the rainfall intensity frequency occurred inregions are quite different. Southwest and South China are the regions featured by distinctdiurnal variation of rainfall intensity. All the test results of rain intensity more than 4 mm h-1reach 0.01 reliability. As for the estimated values of 50- and 100-year recurrence periods ofone-hour maximum rainfall intensity, it seems that spatial distribution of their patterns areconsistent. The maximum value areas are mainly distributed in coastal southeast China, wherethe maximum values of hourly rain intensity occurring once in a century and once in a halfcentury are up to 100-150 mm h-1 and 80-120 mm h-1, respectively.

Key words: extreme value distribution, diurnal variation, recurrence period, China, hourly rain intensity, probability distribution