我国中东部逐时雨强时空分布及重现期的估算

doi:10.11821/xb201003004

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the observed hourly precipitation data over China from 1991 to 2005, thetemporal and spatial distributions of hourly rain intensity and the recurrence periods for 50 or100 years are analyzed by using probability distribution, statistical test and extreme valueanalysis. The results show that for the purposes of the rain intensity more than 4 mmh^-1, themaximum values are mainly distributed in the south coastal areas. The maximum value ofhourly rain intensity is 60-80 mm h^-1 in most parts south of the Yangtze River, and 80-90 mmh^-1 in the coastal areas. The diurnal variation of the rainfall intensity frequency occurred inregions are quite different. Southwest and South China are the regions featured by distinctdiurnal variation of rainfall intensity. All the test results of rain intensity more than 4 mm h^-1reach 0.01 reliability. As for the estimated values of 50- and 100-year recurrence periods ofone-hour maximum rainfall intensity, it seems that spatial distribution of their patterns areconsistent. The maximum value areas are mainly distributed in coastal southeast China, wherethe maximum values of hourly rain intensity occurring once in a century and once in a halfcentury are up to 100-150 mm h^-1 and 80-120 mm h^-1, respectively.

Key words: extreme value distribution, diurnal variation, recurrence period, China, hourly rain intensity, probability distribution

YAO Li1, ZHAO Shengrong1, ZHAO Cuiguang1, ZHOU Bing2, ZHANG Jing3, XUE Feng1. Temporal and Spatial Distributions of Hourly Rain Intensity and Recurrence Periods in Eastern and Central China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(3): 293-300.

References

[1] Hu Haoran, Mao Xiaoliang, Liang Ling. Temporal and spatial variations of extreme precipitation events of flood seasonover Sichuan Basin in last 50 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 64(3): 279-288.
[胡豪然, 毛晓亮, 梁玲近50 年四川盆地汛期极端降水事件的时空演变. 地理学报, 2008, 64(3): 279-288.]

[2] Ferraro R R. SSM/I derived global rainfall estimates for climatological applications. J. Geophys. Res., 1997, 102,16715-16735.

[3] Ferraro R R, Weng F, Grody N C. Precipitation characteristics over land from the NOAA-15 AMSU sensor. Geophys.Res. Ltr., 2000, 27: 2669-2672.

[4] Joyce R J, Janowiak J E, Arkin P A. CMORPH: A method that produces global precipitation estimates from passivemicrowave and infrared data at high spatial and temporal resolution. J. Hydromet., 2004, 5: 487-503.

[5] Wim Klaassen. Determination of rain intensity from Doppler spectra of vertically scanning radar. Journal ofAtmospheric and Oceanic Technology. 1989, 6(4): 552-562.

[6] Hosking J G, Stow C D. Ground-based, high-resolution measurements of the spatial and temporal distribution ofrainfall. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1987, 26(11): 1530-1539.

[7] Frank D Marks Jr. Evolution of the structure of precipitation in hurricane Allen. Monthly Weather Review. 1985, 113(6): 909-930.

[8] Guo Huawen, Wei Daisheng, Chen Jianchang. Evaluating the probability strength of maximum precipitation for longperiods using characteristic coefficient method. Meteorological Monthly, 1997, 23(4): 9-12.
[郭化文, 魏怠生, 陈建昌.应用特征系数法求算长时段最大概率降雨强度. 气象, 1997, 23(4): 9-12.]

[9] Wang Qingchun, Li Lin, Liu Pei. Climate variational characteristics of rain day and rain intensity for the last 40 yearsin Qinghai Province. Meteorological Monthly, 2005, 31(3): 69-72.
[汪青春, 李林, 刘蓓. 青海省近40 年雨日、雨强气候变化特征. 气象, 2005, 31(3): 69-72.]

[10] Sun Xiugui. The Rain Intensity Distribution and Ku Band Rain Attenuation. Beijing: China Meteorological Press,2004: 1-5.
[孙修贵. 中国主要城市降雨雨强分布和Ku波段的降雨衰减, 北京: 气象出版社, 2004: 1-5.]

[11] China Meteorological Administration. Surface Weather Observation Standards. Beijing. China MeteorologicalPress, 2003: 54-59.
[中国气象局. 地面气象观测规范. 北京: 气象出版社, 2003: 54-59.]

[12] Huang Jiayou. Meteorological Statistical Analysis and Forecasting Methods. Beijing: China Meteorological Press,2004: 5-7.
[黄嘉佑. 气象统计分析与预报方法. 北京: 气象出版社, 2004: 5-7.]
[13] Tu Qipu. Meteorology Applied Probability and Statistics. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1984.
[屠其璞. 气象应用概率统计. 北京: 气象出版社, 1984.]

[14] Jin Guangyan. Statistical Principles and Methods in Hydrology. Beijing: China Industry Press, 1964.
[金光炎. 水文统计原理与方法. 北京: 中国工业出版社, 1964.]

[15] Wu Deping, Zhu Ling. An analysis on causation and characteristics of May 9, 2000 torrential rain in Zhanjiang.“5.09”. Journal of Guangdong Meteorology, 2001, (3): 20-21.
[吴德平，朱玲.“5.09”湛江特大暴雨的成因和特点分析. 广东气象, 2001, (3): 20-21.]

[16] Yan Hong, Shen Guoquan, Song Lianchun et al. Climatic Atlas of the People's Republic of China. ChinaMeteorological Press, 2002: 66-67.
[颜宏, 沈国权, 宋连春等. 中华人民共和国气候图集. 北京: 气象出版社, 2002:66-67.]

Temporal and Spatial Distributions of Hourly Rain Intensity and Recurrence Periods in Eastern and Central China

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

[1]	GU Hengyu, SHEN Tiyan. Spatial evolution characteristics and driving forces of Chinese highly educated talents [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 326-340.
[2]	ZHU Shengjun, JIN Wenwan. Local export variety, regional institutions and firm related diversification [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 398-414.
[3]	JIN Fengjun, YAO Zuolin, CHEN Zhuo. Development characteristics and construction prospects for an integrated economic zone in the South China Sea Region [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 428-443.
[4]	SUN Hongri, LIU Yanjun, ZHOU Guolei. The spatiotemporal differentiation and mechanisms of traffic dominance in Northeast China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 444-458.
[5]	LI Gang, XUE Shuyan, MA Xueyao, ZHOU Junjun, XU Tingting, WANG Jiaobei. Spatio-temporal pattern evolution and formation mechanism of missing person incidents in China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 310-325.
[6]	GE Quansheng, ZHU Huiyi. Changes of the physical and human geographical environment in China during the past 2000 years [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(1): 3-14.
[7]	ZHANG Xinghang, ZHANG Baiping, WANG Jing, YU Fuqin, ZHAO Chao, YAO Yonghui. North-south transect series in vegetation of eastern China's north-south transitional zone and their significance for determining climate dividing line [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(1): 30-43.
[8]	LI Zhe, DING Yongjian, CHEN Aijiao, ZHANG Zhihua, ZHANG Shiqiang. Characteristics of warming hiatus of the climate change in Northwest China from 1960 to 2019 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1845-1859.
[9]	GUO Zecheng, WEI Wei, SHI Peiji, ZHOU Liang, WANG Xufeng, LI Zhenya, PANG Sufei, XIE Binbin. Spatiotemporal changes of land desertification sensitivity in the arid region of Northwest China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1948-1965.
[10]	AO Rongjun, CHANG Liang. Influencing mechanism of regional ageing in China based on the Structural Equation Model [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(8): 1572-1584.
[11]	SONG Zhouying, ZHU Qiaoling. Spatio-temporal pattern and driving forces of urbanization in China's border areas [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(8): 1603-1616.
[12]	MA Chunyue, Mamat Sawut, YAO Jie, Gulnur Isak. Spatio-temporal changes of cotton production in China from 1950 to 2015 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(8): 1699-1710.
[13]	ZHENG Jingyun, ZHANG Xuezhen, LIU Yang, HAO Zhixin. The assessment on hydroclimatic changes of different regions in China at multi-scale during the past millennium [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1432-1450.
[14]	TAO Zexing, GE Quansheng, WANG Huanjiong. Spatio-temporal variations in the thermal requirement of the first flowering dates of Salix babylonica and Ulmus pumila in China during 1963-2018 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1451-1464.
[15]	QU Shijin, HU Shougeng, LI Quanfeng. Stages and spatial patterns of urban built-up land transition in China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1539-1553.