中国省区经济增长空间分布动态

doi:10.11821/xb200710005

Abstract

Abstract:

By using the method of MEDD, from two aspects of shape and mobility, this paper explores the evolution of spatial distribution dynamics of provincial economic growth in China from 1978 to 2004. The research results indicate that the shape of provincial economic spatial distribution has changed from stratification to convergence and then to two peaks state in China. Besides the gap among the economic growth levels of provinces within a convergence club has varied from widening to narrowing again, whereas the gap among the economic level of different convergence clubs has varied from narrowing to widening again, indicating that the economic inequities between the two convergence clubs have continue to expand. After the 1990s the regional economic growth became more energetic. Transition matrices, unconditional and space-conditioned dynamic stochastic kernel and contour plots reveal that spatial interactions influence the spatial distribution of provincial economic growth in the future. The spatial context is a very important factor in affecting the distribution of economic growth. It is very likely that spatial proximity stimulates spatial interaction. The economic growth of a region depends on the performance of its neighboring provinces. Provinces with wealthier neighbors have a greater chance to become prosperous. The spatial spillovers from the economic development of provinces having close geographical positions promote provinces with similar economic level to cluster spatially.

Key words: distribution of provincial economic growth, spatial interactions, MEDD, persistence, mobility, China

LI Guoping, CHEN Xiaoling. Spatial Distr ibution Dynamics of Provincial Economic Growth in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2007, 62(10): 1051-1062.

References

[1] Barro R J, Sala-i-Martin X. Convergence across states and regions. Brookings Papers on Economics Activity, 1991, 1: 107-182.

[2] Barro R J, Sala-i-Martin X. Convergence. Journal of Political Economy, 1992, 100: 223-251.

[3] Mankiw, Romer, Weil. A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1992, 107: 407-437.

[4] Wei Houkai. Regional economic growth and convergence in China. China Industrial Economy, 1997, (3): 31-37.
[ 魏后凯. 中国地区经济增长及其收敛. 中国工业经济, 1997, (3): 31-37.]

[5] Cai Fang, Wang Dewen, Du Yang. The impact of a distorted labor market on regional disparities. Social Sciences in China, 2001(2): 4-14.
[蔡昉, 王德文, 都阳. 劳动力市场扭曲对区域差距的影响. 中国社会科学, 2001, (2): 4-14.]

[6] Bernard A B, Durlauf S N. Convergence in international output. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1995, 10: 97-108.

[7] Quah D T. Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth. European Economic Review, 1993, 37: 427-443.

[8] Rey S, Montouri B. US regional income convergence: A spatial econometric perspective. Regional Studies, 1999, 33: 146-156.

[9] Quah D T. Galton's fallacy and tests of the convergence hypothesis. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 1993, 95: 427-443.

[10] Quah D T. Regional convergence clusters across Europe. European Economic Review, 1996, 40: 1951-1958.

[11] Quah D T. Empirics for growth and distribution: Stratification, polarization and convergence clubs. Journal of Economic Growth, 1997, (2): 27-59.

[12] Rey S J. Spatial empirics for economic growth and convergence. Geographical Analysis, 2001, 33: 195-214.

[13] Le Gallo J. Space-time analysis of GDP disparities among European regions: A Markov chains approach. International Regional Science Review, 2004, 27(2): 138-163.

[14] Aroca, Bosch, Maloney. Spatial dimensions of trade liberalization and economic convergence: Mexico 1985-2002. The World Bank Economic Review, 2005, 19: 345-378.

[15] Aziz Jahangir, Christoph Duenwald. China's Provincial Dynamics. IMF working paper WP/01/3. 2001.

[16] Xu Xianxiang, Shu Yuan. Physical capital, human capital and twin peak convergence in China. The Journal of World Economy, 2005, (1): 47-57.
[徐现祥, 舒元. 物质资本、人力资本与中国地区双峰趋同. 世界经济, 2005, (1): 47-57.]

[17] Pu Yingxia1, Ma Ronghua, Ge Ying et al. Spatial-temporal dynamics of Jiangsu regional convergence with spatial Markov Chains approach. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2005, 60(9): 817-826.
[蒲英霞, 马荣华, 葛莹等. 基于空间马尔可夫链的江苏区域趋同时空演变. 地理学报, 2005, 60(9): 817-826.]

[18] Pittau Zelli. Income dynamics across EU regions: Empirical evidence from Kernel Estimation. www.h.scb. se/scb/Projekt/iariw/program/8Amgrz.pdf , 2002. 1-28.

[19] Bickenbach, F.,and E. Bode. Markov or not Markov: This should be a question. Working Paper Series No.1086, Kiel Institute of World Economics, Kiel, Germany, 2001.

[20] Silverman B. Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis. London: Chapman and Hall, 1986.

Spatial Distr ibution Dynamics of Provincial Economic Growth in China

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

[1]	GU Hengyu, SHEN Tiyan. Spatial evolution characteristics and driving forces of Chinese highly educated talents [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 326-340.
[2]	ZHU Shengjun, JIN Wenwan. Local export variety, regional institutions and firm related diversification [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 398-414.
[3]	JIN Fengjun, YAO Zuolin, CHEN Zhuo. Development characteristics and construction prospects for an integrated economic zone in the South China Sea Region [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 428-443.
[4]	SUN Hongri, LIU Yanjun, ZHOU Guolei. The spatiotemporal differentiation and mechanisms of traffic dominance in Northeast China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 444-458.
[5]	LI Gang, XUE Shuyan, MA Xueyao, ZHOU Junjun, XU Tingting, WANG Jiaobei. Spatio-temporal pattern evolution and formation mechanism of missing person incidents in China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 310-325.
[6]	GE Quansheng, ZHU Huiyi. Changes of the physical and human geographical environment in China during the past 2000 years [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(1): 3-14.
[7]	ZHANG Xinghang, ZHANG Baiping, WANG Jing, YU Fuqin, ZHAO Chao, YAO Yonghui. North-south transect series in vegetation of eastern China's north-south transitional zone and their significance for determining climate dividing line [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(1): 30-43.
[8]	LI Zhe, DING Yongjian, CHEN Aijiao, ZHANG Zhihua, ZHANG Shiqiang. Characteristics of warming hiatus of the climate change in Northwest China from 1960 to 2019 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1845-1859.
[9]	GUO Zecheng, WEI Wei, SHI Peiji, ZHOU Liang, WANG Xufeng, LI Zhenya, PANG Sufei, XIE Binbin. Spatiotemporal changes of land desertification sensitivity in the arid region of Northwest China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1948-1965.
[10]	AO Rongjun, CHANG Liang. Influencing mechanism of regional ageing in China based on the Structural Equation Model [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(8): 1572-1584.
[11]	SONG Zhouying, ZHU Qiaoling. Spatio-temporal pattern and driving forces of urbanization in China's border areas [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(8): 1603-1616.
[12]	MA Chunyue, Mamat Sawut, YAO Jie, Gulnur Isak. Spatio-temporal changes of cotton production in China from 1950 to 2015 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(8): 1699-1710.
[13]	ZHENG Jingyun, ZHANG Xuezhen, LIU Yang, HAO Zhixin. The assessment on hydroclimatic changes of different regions in China at multi-scale during the past millennium [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1432-1450.
[14]	TAO Zexing, GE Quansheng, WANG Huanjiong. Spatio-temporal variations in the thermal requirement of the first flowering dates of Salix babylonica and Ulmus pumila in China during 1963-2018 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1451-1464.
[15]	QU Shijin, HU Shougeng, LI Quanfeng. Stages and spatial patterns of urban built-up land transition in China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1539-1553.