Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2004, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (6): 1037-1047.doi: 10.11821/xb200406028

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Construction of a Land-use Change Simulation Model and Its Application in Haidian District, Beijing

DUAN Zengqiang1, P. H. Verburg2, ZHANG Fengrong1, YU Zhenrong1   

  1. 1. Resources and Environment College, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094, China;
    2. Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O.Box 37, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
  • Received:2004-06-10 Revised:2004-08-20 Online:2004-11-25 Published:2004-11-25
  • Supported by:

    Natural Science Foundation of Beijing, No.6031001; No.4022005; China Ministry of Land and Resources LUCC Project, No.2001010102; Science and Technology Commission of Beijing,, No.955421000


CLUE-s (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects in small extent) is a model for simulating spatial changes in land use. The model was applied for regional agriculture and forest land-use system simulations in many countries. The author extended the CLUE-s model with a dynamic neighborhood analysis. The extended model (CLUE-sII) could simulate the self-organizational processes, spontaneous processes and the competition processes of the land-use changes. CLUE-sII can also implement different simulation schemes according to the characteristics of the study area. The local factors and the neighborhood factors play different roles in each scheme. Therefore, the researchers could find the best scheme for the specific study area. Land use change from 1991 to 2001 is simulated using CLUE-sII for Haidian District, Beijing. The results indicate that neighborhood factor analyse is important to simulate urban land-use changes and the scheme that took the neighborhood factor as a magnifying factor to the spontaneous processes obtained the best results, with which the whole map correspondence proportion gained 77% and the Kappa of urban attained 0.754. The case study in this paper showed that CLUE-sII could simulate urban sprawl with multiple land-use types at a high spatial and temporal resolution. Through constructing multiple simulation schemes, one can not only find the best simulation performance, but also could obtain more information on the importance of different land-use drivers.

Key words: CLUE-sII, model, land-use, simulation, Beijing