中国北方近50年温度和降水极端事件变化

doi:10.11821/xb20037s001

Abstract

Abstract:

Study on change of weather and climate extremes has become an important aspect in modern climate change research. Based on the daily surface air temperature data from 200 stations and daily precipitation data from 739 stations during the second half of the 20th century, schemes for analyzing climate extremes were designed mainly according to percentiles of a non-parametric distribution and the gross errors in the daily data were removed based on a newly designed quality control procedure. The spatial and temporal characteristics of change of climate extremes over northern China were studied. The main conclusions are summarized as follows: 1) The number of days with maximum temperatures over 35^oC decreased slightly. The decreasing trends are obvious in the North China Plain and the Hexi Corridor. However, since the 1990s, the extreme hot days increased greatly. Meanwhile, the frost days decreased significantly in northern China, especially in the eastern part of northern China and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Increase trends were found for the 95th percentiles of daily maximum temperatures except in the southern part of North China, while obvious decrease trends were found for the 5th percentiles of daily minimum temperatures. 2) The extreme intense precipitation events obviously increased in much of northwestern China but decreased in the eastern part of northeastern China and most parts of North China. The number of heavy rain days increased in eastern Inner Mongolia and eastern Northeast China, but obviously decreased in the Northeast China Plain and North China.

Key words: intense precipitation, northern China, climate extremes, maximum and minimum temperatures

ZHAI Panmao, PAN Xiaohua. Change in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation over Northern China During the Second Half of the 20th Century[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(7s): 1-10.

References

[1] IPCC, 2001: Climate change 2001: the science of climate change. Houghton J T, Y Ding, D J Griggs et al. (eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 156-159.

[2] Qing Dahe. Evaluation of Environment Evolvement over the Western China: Assessment on Environment Evaluation over Western China. Beijing: Science Press, 2002. 2-10.
[秦大河. 中国西部环境演变评估: 中国西部环境演变评估综合报告. 北京: 科学出版社, 2002. 2-10.]

[3] Easterling D R, Evana J L, Grosman P Ya et al. Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: A brief review. Bull. Amer. Metor. Soc., 2000, 81: 417-425.

[4] Bonsal B R, Zhang X B, Vincent L A et al. Characteristics of daily and extreme temperature over Canada. J. Climate, 2001, 5(14): 1959-1976.

[5] Frich P, Alexander L V, Della-Marta P M et al. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the 20th century. Clim. Res., 2002, 19: 193-212.

[6] Manton M J, Della-Marta P M, Haylock M R et al. Trend in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961-1998. Int. J. Climatol., 2001, 21: 269-284.

[7] Zhai Panmao, Ren Fumin. Change in China's maximum and minimum temperatures in the past 40 years. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1997, 55(4): 418-429.
[翟盘茂, 任福民. 中国近四十年最高最低温度变化.气象学报, 1997, 55(4): 418-492.]

[8] Zhai P M, A J Sun, F M Ren et al. Changes of climate extremes in China. Climate Change, 1999, 42(1): 203-218.

[9] Groisman P, Karl T, Easterling D et al. Changes in the probability of extreme precipitation: important indicators of climate change. Climatic Change, 1999, 42: 243-283.

[10] Zhai Panmao, Ren Fumin, Zhang Qiang. Detection of trends in China's extreme precipitation. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1999, 57(2): 208-216.
[翟盘茂, 任福民, 张强. 中国降水极端值变化趋势检测. 气象学报, 1999, 57(2): 208-216.]

[11] Pan X H, Zhai P M. Analysis of surface air temperature extremum. Meteorological Monthly,The definition of climate extremes over China, Qixiang, 2002, 28(10): 28-31.
[潘晓华, 翟盘茂. 我国极端气候极端事件的确定选取与分析. 气象, 2002, 28(18): 28-31.]

[12] Zhang Yangcai, He Weixun et al. Conspectus of Agricultural Meteorological Disaster. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 1991. 149; 352.
[张养才, 何维勋等. 中国农业气象灾害概论. 北京: 气象出版社, 1991. 149; 352.]

[13] Folland C K, Miller C, Bader D et al. Workshop on Indices and Indicators for Climate Extremes, Asheville, NC, USA, 3-6 June 1997, Breakout Group C: Temperature Indices for Climate Extremes. Clim. Change, 1999, 42: 31-41.

[14] Kendall M G, Gibbons J D. Rank Correlation Methods, 5th. London, UK: Edward Arnold, 1981. 320.

[1]	Wenjiao SHI, Yiting LIU, Xiaoli SHI. Quantitative methods for detecting the impacts of climate change on the fluctuation of farming-pastoral ecotone boundaries in northern China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(3): 407-419.
[2]	XU Jinyong, ZHANG Zengxiang, ZHAO Xiaoli, WEN Qingke, ZUO Lijun, WANG Xiao, YI Ling. Spatial-temporal analysis of coastline changes in northern China from 2000 to 2012 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(5): 651-660.
[3]	JIA Huicong, WANG Jing'ai, PAN Donghua, CAO Chunxiang. Maize Drought Disaster Risk Assessment Based on EPIC Model: A Case Study of Maize Region in Northern China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(5): 643-652.
[4]	HAN Rongqing; LI Weijing; AI Wanxiu; SONG Yanling; YE Dianxiu; HOU Wei. The Climatic Variability and Influence of First Frost Dates in Northern China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(5): 525-532.
[5]	ZHU Hui-yi. Land Pressure and Its Alleviating Approaches for the Mountainous Region of Northern China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(4): 476-484.
[6]	LI Yuecong1, XU Qinghai1, 2, WANG Xueli1, CAO Xianyong1, YANG Xiaolan3. Modern Pollen Assemblages of the Forest Communities and Their Relationships with Vegetation and Climate in Northern China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 63(9): 945-957.
[7]	HUANG Qingxu, SHI Peijun, HE Chunyang,LI Xiaobing. Modelling Land Use Change Dynamics under Different Aridification Scenarios in Northern China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006, 61(12): 1299-1310.
[8]	HE Chunyang, SHI Peijun, LI Jinggang, PAN Yaozhong, CHEN Jin. Scenarios simulation land use change in the northern China by system dynamic model [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(4): 599-607.
[9]	ZHANG Shangyin, SONG Yanling, ZHANG Dekuan, WANG Shourong. The Climatic Characteristics of High Temperature and the Assessment Method in the Large Cities of Northern China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(3): 383-390.
[10]	WANG Tao, WU Wei, XUE Xian, HAN Zhiwen, ZHANG Weimin, SUN Qingwei. Spatial-temporal Changes of Sandy Desertified Land During Last 5 Decades in Northern China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(2): 203-212.
[11]	LI Jinggang, HE Chunyang, SHI Peijun, CHEN Jin, GU Zhihui, XU Wei. Change Process of Cultivated Land and Its Driving Forces in Northern China during 1983-2001 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(2): 274-282.
[12]	QIAN Weihong, LIU Daqing. Relationships between Four Seasonal Rainfall Variability in Nrthern China and Sea Level Pressure Anomalies for the Last Century [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(7s): 49-60.
[13]	ZHU Yafen. The Regional Division of Dryness/Wetness over Eastern China and Variations of Dryness/Wetness in Northern China during the Last 530 Years [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(7s): 100-107.
[14]	GUO Weidong, MA Zhuguo, YAO Yonghong. Regional Characteristics of Soil Moisture Evolution in Northern China over Recent 50 Years [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(7s): 83-90.
[15]	ZHAI Panmao, LI Xiaoyan. On Climate Background of Duststorms over Northern China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(7s): 125-131.

Change in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation over Northern China During the Second Half of the 20th Century

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments