Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2003, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (4): 584-590.doi: 10.11821/xb200304013

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The Vulnerability of Regional Land Productivity to Global Climatic Change: The Case of the Middle Part of Agricultural-Pastoral Zigzag Zone in Northern China

ZHAO Xinyi, CAI Yunlong   

  1. Department of Geography, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2002-10-09 Revised:2003-03-11 Online:2003-07-25 Published:2003-07-25
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 40201002

Abstract:

The impact of global change, especially the global climatic change on human beings has become one of the most serious problems throughout the world. Because of the uncertainty of climatic change, the assessment of the response to climatic change is more necessary and available than the study on the impact of climatic change, especially on the regional scale, which is concerned with the regional strategies to climatic change and the regional sustainable development. Now the vulnerability is taken as the index to express the response of one region to climatic change, which is the function of both the sensitivity to climate and the adaptability to new conditions. The index will make the research work from different scientists comparable and push ahead the study on the impact of climatic change in the world. The middle part of the agricultural-pastoral zigzag zone in northern China is taken as the case area in the paper, which has changeable climate on the temporal and spatial scales. Both the sensitivity of and the adaptability to climate change of the land production in this area are calculated. The character of this paper lies in: the creation of climate scenario in the future based on the information from different sources, the calculation of sensitivity index by the experiential or statistical relationship of land productivity and climate change, and the assessment of the adaptability using the data from the social and economic yearbooks.

Key words: land productivity, vulnerability, the agricultural-pastoral zigzag zone in China, climate change, regional response