区域土地生产潜力对全球气候变化的响应评价——以中国北方农牧交错带中段为例

doi:10.11821/xb200304013

Abstract

Abstract:

The impact of global change, especially the global climatic change on human beings has become one of the most serious problems throughout the world. Because of the uncertainty of climatic change, the assessment of the response to climatic change is more necessary and available than the study on the impact of climatic change, especially on the regional scale, which is concerned with the regional strategies to climatic change and the regional sustainable development. Now the vulnerability is taken as the index to express the response of one region to climatic change, which is the function of both the sensitivity to climate and the adaptability to new conditions. The index will make the research work from different scientists comparable and push ahead the study on the impact of climatic change in the world. The middle part of the agricultural-pastoral zigzag zone in northern China is taken as the case area in the paper, which has changeable climate on the temporal and spatial scales. Both the sensitivity of and the adaptability to climate change of the land production in this area are calculated. The character of this paper lies in: the creation of climate scenario in the future based on the information from different sources, the calculation of sensitivity index by the experiential or statistical relationship of land productivity and climate change, and the assessment of the adaptability using the data from the social and economic yearbooks.

Key words: land productivity, vulnerability, the agricultural-pastoral zigzag zone in China, climate change, regional response

ZHAO Xinyi, CAI Yunlong. The Vulnerability of Regional Land Productivity to Global Climatic Change: The Case of the Middle Part of Agricultural-Pastoral Zigzag Zone in Northern China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(4): 584-590.

References

[1] P A Harrison, R E Butterfield, T E Downing. Climate Change and Agriculture in Europe: Assessment of Impacts and Adaptations, Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, 1995.

[2] R B Stewart. Modeling methodology for assessing crop production potentials in Canada. Tech. Bull., 1981, 96: 221-256.

[3] J Houghton. Global Warming: The Complete Briefing. Lion Publishing PLC, 1994

[4] IPCC II, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, 2001

[5] R T Watson, M C Zinyowera, R H Moss (eds.). The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability, A Special Report of IPCC Working Group II. Cambridge University Press, 1998.

[6] IPCC II, Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, 1996.

[7] Zhou Tingru. Environmental Evolution and Prediction of Agricultural-Pastoral Zigzag Zone in Northern China during the Holocene Epoch. Beijing: Geological Press, 1992.
[周廷儒. 中国北方农牧交错带全新世环境演变及预测. 北京: 地质出版社, 1992.]

[8] Zhang Lansheng. Research on Environmental Change. Beijing: Science Press, 1984.
[张兰生. 环境演变研究. 北京: 科学出版社, 1992.]

[9] Zhu Zhihui, Zhang Fuchun. Solar energy utilization efficiency of the land plants in China. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 1985, 5(4): 343-356.
[朱志辉, 张福春. 我国陆地生态系统的植物太阳能利用率. 生态学报, 1985, 5(4): 343-356.]

[10] Zhao Xinyi. Research on the response of regional land use to global climate change. Doctoral Dissertation of Peking University, 2000.
[赵昕奕. 区域土地利用对全球气候变化的响应研究. 北京大学博士学位论文, 2000.]

[11] Zhao Zongci. Influence of climate variation caused by increased carbon dioxide: simulated by five global atmosphere-ocean circulation models on climate change. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica, 1990, 14(1): 118-127.
[赵宗慈. 五个全球大气海洋环流模式模拟二氧化碳增加对气候变化的影响. 大气科学, 1990, 14(1): 118-127.]

[12] FAO. Yield Response to Water. J Doorenbos, A H Kassam. Irrigation and Drainage Paper 33, Rome, 1979.

[13] Meyer W B. Change in Land Use and Land Cover: A Global Perspective. New York: Oxford University Press, 1994.

[14] Zhang Huiyuan, Zhao Xinyi et al. Human driving mechanism of regional land-use change: a case study of karst mountain areas of southern-western China. Chinese Geographical Science, 2000, 10(4): 289-295.

[15] Zhao Xinyi, Zhang Huiyuan et al. The sustainability of agricultural production under the impact of climatic change: a case study of Zhuolu County in northern China. Chinese Journal of Arid Land Research, 1998, 11(3): 58-69.

The Vulnerability of Regional Land Productivity to Global Climatic Change: The Case of the Middle Part of Agricultural-Pastoral Zigzag Zone in Northern China

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

[1]	LI Zhe, DING Yongjian, CHEN Aijiao, ZHANG Zhihua, ZHANG Shiqiang. Characteristics of warming hiatus of the climate change in Northwest China from 1960 to 2019 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1845-1859.
[2]	WANG Cheng, HE Yanzhou. Spatio-temporal differentiation and differentiated regulation of the vulnerability of rural production space system in Chongqing [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(8): 1680-1698.
[3]	LI Shuangshuang, WANG Chengbo, YAN Junping, LIU Xianfeng. Variability of the event-based extreme precipitation in the south and north Qinling Mountains [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(5): 989-1007.
[4]	TIAN Jing, GUO Shenglian, LIU Dedi, CHEN Qihui, WANG Qiang, YIN Jiabo, WU Xushu, HE Shaokun. Impacts of climate and land use/cover changes on runoff in the Hanjiang River basin [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(11): 2307-2318.
[5]	SONG Xiaoqing, SHEN Yajing, WANG Xiong, LI Xinyi. Vulnerability to biological disasters: A novel field of cultivated land use transition research [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(11): 2362-2379.
[6]	LIU Yujie, GE Quansheng, DAI Junhu. Research progress in crop phenology under global climate change [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(1): 14-24.
[7]	XIAO Lingbo, YAN Junhui. Reconstruction of poor/bumper autumn harvest index series based on historical chorography and its relationship with climate change in North China from 1736 to 1911 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(9): 1777-1788.
[8]	LI Shuangshuang, YAN Junping, WU Yaqun, WANG Chengbo. Spatiotemporal variability of actual heating energy efficiency and its influencing factors in areas south and north of Qinling-Huaihe Line [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(9): 1866-1877.
[9]	TONG Biao, DANG Anrong, XU Jian. A historical study on the patterns of spatio-temporal evolution of towns in the Wuding River Basin [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(8): 1508-1524.
[10]	WANG Qun, YIN Mahua, YANG Xingzhu, YAO Zhaozhao. Spatio-temporal evolution and impact mechanism of socio-ecological system vulnerability in poor mountainous tourist distinations: Taking Dabie Mountain Area as example [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(8): 1663-1679.
[11]	LIU Juan,YAO Xiaojun,LIU Shiyin,GUO Wanqin,XU Junli. Glacier changes in the Gangdisê Mountains from 1970 to 2016 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(7): 1333-1344.
[12]	GUO Chao,MENG Hongwei,MA Yuzhen,LI Dandan,HU Caili,LIU Jierui,LUO Congwen,WANG Kai. Environmental variations recorded by chemical element in the sediments of Lake Yamzhog Yumco on the southern Tibetan Plateau over the past 2000 years [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(7): 1345-1362.
[13]	YANG Qingqing,LIU Qian,YIN Sha,ZHANG Jian,YANG Xinjun,GAO Yanhui. Vulnerability and influencing factors of rural transportation environment in Qinling-Daba mountainous areas: A case study of Luonan county in Shaanxi province [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(6): 1236-1251.
[14]	LIU Jun,HUANG Li,SUN Xiaoqian,LI Ningxin,ZHANG Hengjin. Impact of climate change on birdwatching tourism in China:Based on the perspective of bird phenology [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(5): 912-922.
[15]	MA Danyang, YIN Yunhe, WU Shaohong, ZHENG Du. Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under high emission scenario [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(5): 857-874.