Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 1998, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (5): 393-403.doi: 10.11821/xb199805002

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AN ESTIMATION AND ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE IN SHANGHAI REGION

Li Yongping, Qin Zenghao, Duan Yihong   

  1. Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shang hai 200030
  • Received:1996-10-01 Revised:1997-03-01 Online:1998-09-15 Published:1998-09-15
  • Supported by:
    Supported by the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Foundation undert heaus pices of project contract No.933912046

Abstract: Utilizing the historical tide records at seven tide-gauge stations in the Shanghai region,the characteristics of the mean annual Eustatic sea level(MAESL)are analyzed.It is shown that the MAESL in the region has been rising in the last 100 years,at the meanliner rate of 0.1 cm/a.The rising rate was especially rapid in the last 30 years.Those findings are consistent with the results obtained by other scientists who have estimated the magnitude of MAESL rise in the North Pacific and the East China Sea.A statistical model fitting the variation of the MAESL is established to estimate the MAESL rise.It is estimated by extrapolation of data that the MAESL will rise above the 1990 level by 4cm,9cm and 18cm in 2010,2030 and 2050,respectively.Our estimates are similar to those suggested by IPCC in 1992 and 1995 and by the academicians of the Department of Geoscience,Academic Sinica in 1994.According to research by the Shanghai Academy of Geotecnical Engineering&Geology in 1994 and the Shanghai Observatory in 1996,the ground subsidence in the Shanghai region due to compaction of sediments will be 10cm,15cm and 18cm,whereas the regional crust will subside by 2cm,4cm and 6cm below the 1990 level by 2010,2030 and 2050,respectively.Accepting these values and using our own estimated rates of MAESL rise,we further estimated that the mean annual relative sea level would rise above the 1990 level by 16cm,28cm and 42cm in the same three years.However,taking a variety of undetermined factors into consideration,the reasonable values of the relative sea level rise for the same years would be between 15cm and 20cm,25cm,35cm,40cm and 50cm,respectively.

Key words: eustatic sea level,relative sea level,time series analysis,future sea level rise,sea level rise in Shanghai

CLC Number: 

  • P731.23