2020—2022年COVID-19疫情对中国居民消费及消费结构的影响

doi:10.11821/dlxb202304008

Abstract

Abstract:

Since 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic has repeatedly resurfaced in several cities in China, causing significant shocks to residents' lives and consumption. Accurately measuring the impact of the epidemic shock on household consumption and its structure is an important issue in the economic assessment of the epidemic and in promoting the recovery of household consumption. Based on the monthly data of household consumption from January 2020 to September 2022, this paper conducted a quantitative assessment study of the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on household consumption structure based on the tourism background trend line theory, the monthly index decomposition model and the background line distance level analysis method. The results found that: (1) The COVID-19 epidemic had a direct impact on all eight types of consumption, with smaller losses in food, clothing and housing, and larger losses in transport, culture and entertainment, and healthcare, etc. The recovery period for the rigid demand was significantly faster than that for optional consumption; the six waves of the epidemic caused different curves of fluctuations in the high-resolution distance levels of the eight types of consumption. (2) Comparing the changes in consumption structure in the three years before and after the epidemic, we found that: the Engel's coefficient of consumption rebounded by 2 percentage points. The mental Engel's coefficient dropped by 2.6 percentage points. The structural diversification index dropped by 3.4 percentage points. This means that an obvious downgrading happened in the structure of short-term consumption. Comparing the structural changes in consumption in the period of the epidemic shock with those in the period of the epidemic slowdown, a similar fluctuation cycle was observed. (3) In terms of the impact of the six waves of the epidemic, the Wuhan epidemic in 2020 and the Shanghai epidemic in 2022 had a greater impact, resulting in losses of up to 1092 yuan per capita and 490 yuan per capita for all types of consumption by residents. Finally, combining the variation of CPI and the epidemic prevention policies, this paper conducts a cause analysis of food consumption growth and the continued negative margin of healthcare consumption.

Key words: consumption structure, COVID-19, tourism background trend line, consumption recovery cycle, China

SUN Gennian, XING Di. The impact of COVID-19 on China's household consumption and consumption structure in 2020-2022[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2023, 78(4): 894-912.

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事件名称	起止日期及封控周期(d)	风暴中心与波及范围	事件性质及对居民消费的可能影响
2020年1—3月武汉疫情	1月23日—4月8日, 76	湖北武汉；全国31个省市出现疫情，河南、湖南较严重	冲击强、影响广、受损严重；大面积停工停产，交通、餐饮、旅游等经历“至暗时刻”
2020年7—8月新辽疫情	7月16日—8月26日, 41	新疆、辽宁；北京、上海、云南等10个省区出现疫情	冲击较弱、影响集中、局部重创；多地复工复产，消费下滑放缓，居民消费逐步恢复
2021年1—2月华北疫情	1月6—29日, 23	河北、黑龙江；华北、华东14个省市出现疫情	冲击较弱、影响集中、局部重创；疫情反复，对华北、华东地区“就地过年”影响较大
2021年7—8月湖苏疫情	7月30日—8月25日, 26	湖南、江苏；浙江、河南等14个省市出现疫情	冲击较弱、影响较广、局部重创；交通、旅游等消费下滑明显
2022年1—2月陕西疫情	12月23日—1月24日,32	陕西；浙江、天津、福建等14个省市出现疫情	冲击较强、影响较广、局部重创；旅游、娱乐、餐饮等消费短期影响显著
2022年3—5月上海疫情	3月28日—6月1日, 65	上海；吉林、广东、浙江、江苏等18个省市出现疫情	冲击较强、影响广泛、受损严重；邻近省市全面封控，大面积公共场所关闭，长三角影响最大

消费类型	本底趋势线方程	相关系数	2020年		2021年
消费类型	本底趋势线方程	相关系数	损失量(元)	损失率(%)	损失量(元)	损失率(%)
食品烟酒消费	y=73.37sin(1.496t+13.77)+ 311.6t-623100	0.9991	-7.01	-0.11	-485.25	-7.25
衣着类消费	y=55.88sin(0.5002t-201.2)+67.57t-135050	0.9977	149.17	10.75	48.86	3.33
居住类消费	y=-136.6sin(0.479t+30.1)+313.1t-627347	0.9991	33.18	0.63	-108.72	-1.97
生活用品及服务	y=-115.2sin(0.09172t+238.5)+71.49t-143010	0.9991	101.32	7.44	19.91	1.38
交通通信类消费	y=116.9sin(0.4914t+46.8)+170.5t-341530	0.9997	227.70	7.62	-51.60	-1.66
教育文化娱乐	y=513.5sin(0.1707t+358.8)+122.8t-245300	0.9988	671.33	24.83	314.66	10.80
医疗保健类消费	y=1411sin(0.1289t+159.1)+245.1t-491500	0.9988	352.01	16.04	350.44	14.21
其他用品及服务	y=366.4sin(0.05295t-155.5)+ 33.87t-67510	0.9973	82.38	15.13	12.39	2.13

所处阶段	年份	人均消费(元)	恩格尔系数(%)	精神恩格尔系数(%)	结构多样化指数	结构高级化指数(%)
疫情发生前	2017	18322	29.3	27.5	1.858	57.4
	2018	19853	28.4	27.1	1.861	57.1
	2019	21559	28.2	27.4	1.860	57.5
疫情发生后	2020	21210	30.2	24.8	1.826	50.7
	2021	24100	29.8	26.2	1.843	54.4
	2022	17878	30.4	25.6	1.833	52.7

时间	所处阶段	恩格尔系数(%)	精神恩格尔系数(%)	结构多样化指数	结构高级化指数(%)
2020年	武汉疫情	30.68	21.98	1.814	43.60
	平缓期I	27.97	23.62	1.814	49.94
	新辽疫情	25.89	28.46	1.848	62.22
	平缓期II	28.56	27.65	1.844	57.40
2021年	华北疫情	32.98	23.53	1.819	46.42
	平缓期III	29.70	25.42	1.849	52.99
	湖苏疫情	28.31	27.85	1.844	60.10
	平缓期IV	29.98	26.16	1.838	54.06
2022年	陕西疫情	33.42	23.51	1.819	46.37
2022年	上海疫情	30.97	23.28	1.818	47.24
	平缓期V	28.67	26.12	1.838	55.12

疫情事件	食品烟酒类		衣着类		居住类		生活用品及服务		前4类消费总损失(元)
疫情事件	损失量(元)	损失率(%)	损失量(元)	损失率(%)	损失量(元)	损失率(%)	损失量(元)	损失率(%)	前4类消费总损失(元)
武汉疫情	348.39	18.99	102.22	21.74	18.37	1.47	57.65	16.95	526.63
新辽疫情	56.05	5.84	7.07	4.37	-8.91	-1.03	14.52	6.43	68.72
华北疫情	-27.35	-2.16	14.22	4.70	-27.57	-3.22	13.78	5.77	-26.91
湖苏疫情	-106.78	-10.63	-7.73	-4.40	-29.16	-3.24	3.97	1.66	-139.70
陕西疫情	-95.75	-7.33	48.99	14.08	-25.47	-2.81	14.52	5.75	-57.72
上海疫情	-39.86	-2.70	85.54	25.67	-23.81	-1.77	44.20	12.40	66.07
疫情事件	交通通信类		教育文化娱乐		医疗保健类		其他用品及服务		后4类消费总损失(元)
疫情事件	损失量(元)	损失率(%)	损失量(元)	损失率(%)	损失量(元)	损失率(%)	损失量(元)	损失率(%)	后4类消费总损失(元)
武汉疫情	146.08	19.20	243.54	41.51	130.44	24.23	45.95	30.07	566.01
新辽疫情	-21.23	-4.39	118.90	22.29	46.55	12.71	13.22	15.86	157.44
华北疫情	47.58	9.14	61.60	15.06	84.77	21.23	15.34	14.17	209.30
湖苏疫情	4.59	0.91	64.45	11.21	50.99	12.39	0.84	0.95	120.86
陕西疫情	41.76	7.74	70.23	16.02	103.51	23.17	6.83	5.92	222.34
上海疫情	76.45	10.43	152.49	24.66	175.72	25.13	19.19	12.41	423.85

The impact of COVID-19 on China's household consumption and consumption structure in 2020-2022

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