制造业区位优势变化对劳动力空间流动的影响与作用机制

doi:10.11821/dlxb202304005

Abstract

Abstract:

Exploring the influence and mechanism of the change of location advantage in manufacturing on the labor spatial mobility is of great significance to optimize the spatial distribution of China's manufacturing and improve the efficiency of labor spatial allocation. Based on the data of China Industry Database and China Migrants Dynamics Survey, using the improved Shift-Share Analysis method to measure the change of location advantage, this paper reveals the changing pattern of manufacturing location advantage and the characteristics of labor spatial mobility in China, empirically analyzing the influence and mechanism of the change of location advantage in manufacturing on the labor spatial mobility by conditional logit model. The results are shown as follows: (1) On the whole, during the research period, the rise of the location advantage in manufacturing is conducive to attract the inflow of labor in this field. (2) The positive effect of employment and income brought by the rising location advantage in manufacturing promotes the labor inflow, while the negative effect of ecological environment suppresses the labor inflow. (3) There are obvious differences among industries with different technological complexities and factor intensities, cities with different geographical locations, economic locations and scales, and labor forces with different individual characteristics. The rise of the advantage location in technology-intensive and capital-intensive industries can attract labor inflow obviously, while labor-intensive and resource-intensive industries cannot. Under the background of the rising location advantage in manufacturing, cities located in central and western regions can attract labor inflow obviously, while cities located in eastern and northeast regions cannot; peripheral cities of the urban agglomeration can attract labor inflow obviously, while central cities and other cities cannot; large and medium-sized cities are conducive to attracting labor inflow, while super-large and small cities cannot. In contrast, the labor with older age, lower education, intra-province flow and agricultural hukou is more likely to choose the cities when the location advantage in manufacturing increases.

Key words: change of location advantage in manufacturing, labor spatial mobility, employment opportunities, income, ecological amenity, conditional logit model

LIU Yu, JIANG Zhi, ZHANG Keyun. The influence and mechanism of the change of location advantage in manufacturing on the labor spatial mobility[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2023, 78(4): 840-858.

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变量	测算方法	观测量	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
区位优势变化	偏离—份额分析测算(万亿元)	759	-0.0022	0.1467	-0.9638	0.4674
经济发展	人均GDP(万元)	759	3.5209	2.4747	0.5361	18.2419
人口规模	年末总人口(百万人)	759	4.5763	3.1458	0.1978	33.2213
工资水平	职工平均工资(万元)	759	3.2295	0.8378	1.4038	7.6824
失业率	登记失业人数/(在岗职工人数+登记失业人数)	759	0.0627	0.0259	0.0107	0.1983
投资活力	固定资产投资(百亿元)	759	9.7699	10.2570	0.5238	80.2942
住房价格	商品房销售额/销售面积(万元/m²)	759	0.3851	0.2222	0.1524	1.9825
基础教育	基础教育生均教师数(人/百万人)	759	6.4518	1.1181	4.0000	10.6568
医疗卫生	人均医疗卫生床位数(人/百万人)	759	0.3583	0.1444	0.1140	1.1867
开放程度	几何中心到海岸线的最短距离(百万m)	759	0.4458	0.4146	0.0012	2.7281
行政等级	直辖市、省会(首府)城市=1，其他=0	759	0.1186	0.3235	0	1

变量	观测量	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
性别	41245	0.5772	0.4940	0	1
年龄	41245	29.5788	8.6588	10	59
受教育程度	41245	9.9360	2.7900	0	19
流动范围	41245	0.7403	0.4385	0	1
户口性质	41245	0.0991	0.2988	0	1

		2007—2011年		2008—2012年		2009—2013年
		上升	下降	上升	下降	上升	下降
地理区位	东部城市	23.2	53.9	22.6	50.6	22.5	49.5
	中部城市	39.0	11.8	32.3	28.1	41.9	11.8
	西部城市	27.7	23.7	34.1	12.4	26.9	25.8
	东北城市	10.2	10.5	11.0	9.0	8.8	12.9
经济区位	城市群中心城市	6.8	30.3	9.1	22.5	8.8	22.6
	城市群外围城市	69.5	53.9	67.1	60.7	66.9	61.3
	其他城市	23.7	15.8	23.8	16.9	24.4	16.1
规模	特大超大城市	2.8	10.5	3.7	7.0	3.1	8.6
	大城市	44.1	53.9	42.1	56.2	41.9	55.9
	中等城市	36.7	30.3	37.2	30.3	38.1	29.0
	小城市	16.4	5.3	17.1	5.6	16.9	6.5

变量	未标准化	标准化
变量	模型(1)	模型(2)	模型(3)
区位优势变化	0.1293^*** (5.5021)	0.0189^*** (5.5588)	0.2376^*** (5.5128)
控制变量	控制	控制	控制
个体固定效应	控制	控制	控制
Chi2统计量	81670.20	81670.20	81670.20
准R²	0.1789	0.1789	0.1789
样本容量	10434985	10434985	10434985
城市数量	253	253	253
个体数量	41245	41245	41245

变量		方法1				方法2
变量		模型(1)		模型(2)		模型(3)
区位优势变化		0.1454^*** (6.0332)		0.2439^*** (8.8370)		0.3346^*** (10.2324)
落户门槛指数						0.0185^** (1.9609)
区位优势变化×落户门槛指数						0.5893^*** (8.1620)
控制变量		控制		控制		控制
个体固定效应		控制		控制		控制
Chi2统计量		67600.60		71876.65		81764.32
准R²		0.1978		0.1852		0.1791
样本容量		6503996		8148720		10434985
城市数量		202		228		253
个体数量		32198		35740		41245
变量	方法3				方法4
变量	模型(4)		模型(5)		模型(6)		模型(7)
区位优势变化	0.1311^*** (5.1614)		0.1409^*** (4.3089)		0.2717^*** (10.3308)		0.3933^*** (12.7695)
控制变量	控制		控制		控制		控制
个体固定效应	控制		控制		控制		控制
Chi2统计量	66412.75		39460.37		65131.08		49776.87
准R²	0.1762		0.1709		0.1784		0.1758
样本容量	8617686		5277833		8348241		6474523
城市数量	253		253		253		253
个体数量	34062		20861		32997		25591

The influence and mechanism of the change of location advantage in manufacturing on the labor spatial mobility

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变量	模型(1) 泊松两步回归	模型(2) 负二项两步回归
区位优势变化	10.4297^*** (2.8578)	10.5685^*** (2.8686)
res_区位优势变化	-10.3190^*** (-2.7919)	-10.4528^*** (-2.8019)
控制变量	控制	控制
城市固定效应	控制	控制
年份固定效应	控制	控制
Log-likelihood统计量	-2084.2812	-2010.5465
准R²	0.9645	0.3912

变量	模型(1) 就业机会	模型(2) 就业收入	模型(3) 生态环境质量
区位优势变化	0.7821^*** (3.2278)	0.2216^* (1.6712)	1.0004^* (1.7368)
控制变量	控制	控制	控制
城市固定效应	控制	控制	控制
年份固定效应	控制	控制	控制
R²	0.2884	0.0456	0.3332
样本容量	759	41204	759
城市数量	253	286	253
个体数量	-	41204	-

变量	模型(1) 高技术	模型(2) 中等技术	模型(3) 低技术
区位优势变化	0.4691^*** (10.6154)	-1.0602^*** (-14.9958)	-1.2377^*** (-10.1451)
控制变量	控制	控制	控制
个体固定效应	控制	控制	控制
Chi2统计量	81748.27	81858.57	81735.34
准R²	0.1791	0.1793	0.1791
样本容量	10434985	10434985	10434985
城市数量	253	253	253
个体数量	41245	41245	41245

变量	模型(1) 资源密集型	模型(2) 劳动密集型	模型(3) 资本密集型	模型(4) 技术密集型
区位优势变化	-0.8854^*** (-9.3495)	-2.3729^*** (-29.4770)	0.8805^*** (8.3223)	0.7622^*** (18.5450)
控制变量	控制	控制	控制	控制
个体固定效应	控制	控制	控制	控制
Chi2统计量	81720.16	82481.97	81199.74	81985.56
准R²	0.1790	0.1807	0.1784	0.1796
样本容量	10434985	10434985	10434985	10434985
城市数量	253	253	253	253
个体数量	41245	41245	41245	41245

变量	模型(1) 东部城市	模型(2) 中部城市	模型(3) 西部城市	模型(4) 东北城市
区位优势变化	-0.0192 (-0.7245)	1.3766^*** (7.7120)	3.2426^*** (6.8612)	-0.0988 (-0.1894)
控制变量	控制	控制	控制	控制
个体固定效应	控制	控制	控制	控制
Chi2统计量	37923.52	4773.94	7446.57	3519.20
准R²	0.1314	0.1655	0.2378	0.3684
样本容量	2685008	258258	249508	38116
城市数量	82	78	67	26
个体数量	32744	3311	3724	1466

变量	模型(1) 城市群中心城市	模型(2) 城市群外围城市	模型(3) 城市群外其他城市
区位优势变化	-0.6907^*** (-17.7103)	0.8643^*** (16.8809)	-5.5132^*** (-8.9602)
控制变量	控制	控制	控制
个体固定效应	控制	控制	控制
Chi2统计量	13089.76	49145.56	762.58
准R²	0.1005	0.2183	0.1117
样本容量	641165	3619480	46224
城市数量	35	164	54
个体数量	18319	22070	856

变量	模型(1) 特大超大城市	模型(2) 大城市	模型(3) 中等城市	模型(4) 小城市
区位优势变化	-0.7666^*** (-12.6086)	0.4895^*** (12.8816)	2.8849^*** (8.0674)	0.8596 (0.7705)
控制变量	控制	控制	控制	控制
个体固定效应	控制	控制	控制	控制
Chi2统计量	5743.85	39617.55	14246.09	707.46
准R²	0.1075	0.1633	0.3471	0.1171
样本容量	135447	3020101	403304	28512
城市数量	13	119	88	33
个体数量	10419	25379	4583	864

变量	模型(1) 性别	模型(2) 年龄	模型(3) 受教育程度	模型(4) 流动范围	模型(5) 户口性质
区位优势变化× 劳动力个体特征	0.2077^*** (7.6926)	0.0218^*** (13.6250)	-0.0563^*** (-11.7292)	-1.7725^*** (-44.0920)	-0.1848^*** (-4.2679)
区位优势变化	0.0126 (0.4549)	-0.5049^*** (-9.8039)	0.6963^*** (12.7996)	1.5877^*** (37.5343)	0.1487^*** (6.1958)
控制变量	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
个体固定效应	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
Chi2统计量	81729.14	81859.94	81807.11	84049.42	81687.96
准R²	0.1791	0.1793	0.1792	0.1841	0.1790
样本容量	10434985	10434985	10434985	10434985	10434985
城市数量	253	253	253	253	253
个体数量	41245	41245	41245	41245	41245

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