中国沿海地区产业演化路径依赖及突破对区域经济韧性的影响

doi:10.11821/dlxb202304004

Abstract

Abstract:

Regional industrial evolution path dependence and path creation are the key to investigate regional economic resilience from the perspective of evolutionary economic geography. Exploring the impact of industrial evolutionary path dependence and path creation on regional economic resilience based on regional new industries from an empirical perspective can improve the understanding of industrial evolutionary path and regional economic resilience. Taking the coastal areas of China as an example, we measure and analyze its spatio-temporal distribution characteristics based on a panel data from 2002 to 2017. This paper explores the main affecting factors of regional economic resilience in China's coastal areas by using one-step system GMM. Results show that: (1) The gaps in regional economic resilience in China's coastal areas has narrowed in the early financial crisis, but then presented obvious differentiation. Shanghai and Guangdong showed a U-shaped distribution; Fujian, Guangxi and Hainan continued to improve and maintain a high level; Jiangsu and Zhejiang saw two declines and then recovered quickly during the financial crisis and the early stage of the new normal; the Bohai Rim is mostly negative. (2) The path dependency in China's coastal areas is generally higher than path creativity. The overall industrial evolution path dependency and path creativity showed a fluctuating trend of decline and rise respectively, and path creation gradually became the main direction of industrial evolution. (3) The number of new industries in each region decreased significantly under the impact of the financial crisis. The advantages of new industries in steel and its products declined rapidly, and then concentrated in chemical industry, machinery manufacturing and other industries. (4) Dialectically looking at different evolutionary paths is of great significance to regional resilience. Both path dependence and path creation of industrial evolution have a positive influence on regional economic resilience, and the influence of path creation is more prominent. In addition, economic development level, per fixed assets investment and ratio of fixed asset investment to GDP affect economic resilience at the same time.

Key words: industrial evolution, path dependence, path creation, regional economic resilience, coastal areas of China

LI Bo, QU Yi. Influence of industrial evolution path dependence and path creation on regional economic resilience: Taking the coastal areas of China as an example[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2023, 78(4): 824-839.

Figures/Tables 6

Tab. 1

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

References 56

[1]	Han Zenglin, Zhu Wenchao, Li Bo. Research hotspots of regional resilience and the visualization of research frontiers. Tropical Geography, 2021, 41(1): 206-215. doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003298
	[韩增林, 朱文超, 李博. 区域弹性研究热点与前沿的可视化. 热带地理, 2021, 41(1): 206-215.] doi: 10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003298
[2]	Li Tongyue. New progress in study on resilient cities. Urban Planning International, 2017, 32(5): 15-25. doi: 10.22217/upi
	[李彤玥. 韧性城市研究新进展. 国际城市规划, 2017, 32(5): 15-25.]
[3]	Zhao Ruidong, Fang Chuanglin, Liu Haimeng. Progress and prospect of urban resilience research. Progress in Geography, 2020, 39(10): 1717-1731. doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.10.011
	[赵瑞东, 方创琳, 刘海猛. 城市韧性研究进展与展望. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(10): 1717-1731.] doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.10.011
[4]	Boschma R. Towards an evolutionary perspective on regional resilience. Regional Studies, 2015, 49(5): 733-751. doi: 10.1080/00343404.2014.959481
[5]	Martin R, Sunley P, Gardiner B, et al. How regions react to recessions: Resilience and the role of economic structure. Regional Studies, 2016, 50(4): 561-585. doi: 10.1080/00343404.2015.1136410
[6]	Martin R, Sunley P. On the notion of regional economic resilience: Conceptualization and explanation. Journal of Economic Geography, 2015, 15(1): 1-42. DOI: 10.1093/jeg/lbu015. doi: 10.1093/jeg/lbu015
[7]	Jin Lulu, He Canfei, Zhou Yi, et al. Path creation in China's industrial evolution. Progress in Geography, 2017, 36(8): 974-985. doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.08.006
	[金璐璐, 贺灿飞, 周沂, 等. 中国区域产业结构演化的路径突破. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36(8): 974-985.] doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.08.006
[8]	He Canfei, Li Wei. Evolutionary economic geography and regional development. Regional Economic Review, 2020(1): 39-54.
	[贺灿飞, 李伟. 演化经济地理学与区域发展. 区域经济评论, 2020(1): 39-54.]
[9]	Li Wei, He Canfei. Regional new industrial development paths: A literature review and future development. Regional Economic Review, 2020(6): 12-24.
	[李伟, 贺灿飞. 区域新产业发展路径: 研究述评与展望. 区域经济评论, 2020(6): 12-24.]
[10]	Hidalgo C A, Klinger B, Barabási A L, et al. The product space conditions the development of nations. Science, 2007, 317(5837): 482-487. pmid: 17656717
[11]	Martin R, Sunley P. Path dependence and regional economic evolution. Journal of Economic Geography, 2006, 6(4): 395-437. doi: 10.1093/jeg/lbl012
[12]	Boschma R, Iammarino S. Related variety, trade linkages, and regional growth in Italy. Economic Geography, 2009, 85(3): 289-311. doi: 10.1111/ecge.2009.85.issue-3
[13]	Ma Li. Green industrial transformation path of Chinese coastal areas based on coupling types of industrial development with environment. Geographical Research, 2018, 37(8): 1587-1598. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201808009
	[马丽. 基于产业环境耦合类型的沿海地区产业绿色转型路径研究. 地理研究, 2018, 37(8): 1587-1598.] doi: 10.11821/dlyj201808009
[14]	Peng Rongxi, Liu Tao, Cao Guangzhong. Spatial pattern of urban economic resilience in eastern coastal China and industrial explanation. Geographical Research, 2021, 40(6): 1732-1748. doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200486
	[彭荣熙, 刘涛, 曹广忠. 中国东部沿海地区城市经济韧性的空间差异及其产业结构解释. 地理研究, 2021, 40(6): 1732-1748.] doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200486
[15]	Sun Jiuwen, Jiang Zhi. Paths of high-quality development in China's coastal areas. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 277-294. doi: 10.11821/dlxb202102003
	[孙久文, 蒋治. 中国沿海地区高质量发展的路径. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 277-294.] doi: 10.11821/dlxb202102003
[16]	Guan Haoming, Yang Qingshan, Hao Feilong, et al. Economic resilience characteristics of Shenyang city based on a perspective of industry-enterprise-space. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 415-427. doi: 10.11821/dlxb202102012
	[关皓明, 杨青山, 浩飞龙, 等. 基于“产业—企业—空间”的沈阳市经济韧性特征. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 415-427.] doi: 10.11821/dlxb202102012
[17]	Li Liangang, Zhang Pingyu, Tan Juntao, et al. Review on the evolution of resilience concept and research progress on regional economic resilience. Human Geography, 2019, 34(2): 1-7, 151.
	[李连刚, 张平宇, 谭俊涛, 等. 韧性概念演变与区域经济韧性研究进展. 人文地理, 2019, 34(2): 1-7, 151.]
[18]	Sun Jiuwen, Sun Xiangyu. Research progress of regional economic resilience and exploration of its application in China. Economic Geography, 2017, 37(10): 1-9. doi: 10.2307/142031
	[孙久文, 孙翔宇. 区域经济韧性研究进展和在中国应用的探索. 经济地理, 2017, 37(10): 1-9.]
[19]	Chen Mengyuan. An international literature review of regional economic resilience: Theories and practices based on the evolutionary perspective. Progress in Geography, 2017, 36(11): 1435-1444. doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.11.012
	[陈梦远. 国际区域经济韧性研究进展: 基于演化论的理论分析框架介绍. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36(11): 1435-1444.] doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.11.012
[20]	Shao Yiwen, Xu Jiang. Understanding urban resilience: A conceptual analysis based on integrated international literature review. Urban Planning International, 2015, 30(2): 48-54.
	[邵亦文, 徐江. 城市韧性: 基于国际文献综述的概念解析. 国际城市规划, 2015, 30(2): 48-54.]
[21]	Schulze P C. Engineering Resilience Versus Ecological Eesilience. Washington DC: National Academy Press, 1996: 31-44.
[22]	Reggiani A, Graaff T D, Nijkamp P. Resilience: An evolutionary approach to spatial economic systems. Networks and Spatial Economics, 2002, 2(2): 211-229. doi: 10.1023/A:1015377515690
[23]	Boschma R, Martin R. Constructing an evolutionary economic geography. Journal of Economic Geography, 2007, 7(5): 537-548. doi: 10.1093/jeg/lbm021
[24]	Martin R. Regional economic resilience, hysteresis and recessionary shocks. Journal of Economic Geography, 2012, 12(1): 1-32. DOI: 10.1093/jeg/lbr019. doi: 10.1093/jeg/lbr019
[25]	Li Liangang, Zhang Pingyu, Tan Juntao, et al. A regional economic resilience approach to the economic revitalization process in Liaoning old industrial base, China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2019, 39(1): 116-124. doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.01.013
	[李连刚, 张平宇, 谭俊涛, 等. 区域经济弹性视角下辽宁老工业基地经济振兴过程分析. 地理科学, 2019, 39(1): 116-124.] doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.01.013
[26]	Hu Xiaohui. Review and future prospect of regional economic elasticity research. Foreign Economics & Management, 2012, 34(8): 64-72.
	[胡晓辉. 区域经济弹性研究述评及未来展望. 外国经济与管理, 2012, 34(8): 64-72.]
[27]	Martin R. Roepke lecture in economic geography-Rethinking regional path dependence: Beyond lock-in to evolution. Economic Geography, 2010, 86(1): 927-933.
[28]	Gould S J, Eldredge N. Punctuated equilibria: An alternative to phyletic gradualism. Models in paleobiology, 1972, 1972: 82-115.
[29]	David P A. Clio and the economics of QWERTY. The American Economic Review, 1985, 75(2): 332-337.
[30]	North D C. Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990.
[31]	David P A. Path dependence: A foundational concept for historical social science. Cliometrica, 2007, 1(2): 91-114. doi: 10.1007/s11698-006-0005-x
[32]	Cao Xuanwei, Xi Youmin, Chen Xuelian. A summary of path dependence research. Comparative Economic & Social Systems, 2008(3): 185-191.
	[曹瑄玮, 席酉民, 陈雪莲. 路径依赖研究综述. 经济社会体制比较, 2008(3): 185-191.]
[33]	Boschma R A, Frenken K. Why is economic geography not an evolutionary science? Towards an evolutionary economic geography. Journal of Economic Geography, 2006, 6(3): 273-302. doi: 10.1093/jeg/lbi022
[34]	Boschma R, Capone G. Relatedness and diversification in the European Union (EU-27) and European Neighbourhood Policy countries. Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, 2016, 34(4): 617-637. doi: 10.1177/0263774X15614729
[35]	Boschma R, Coenen L, Frenken K, et al. Towards a theory of regional diversification. Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography, 2016.
[36]	Li Wei, He Canfei. New industries and urban economic growth: Perspective from evolutionary economic geography. Urban Development Studies, 2020, 27(6): 51-61, 173.
	[李伟, 贺灿飞. 城市新产业与城市经济增长: 演化经济地理学视角. 城市发展研究, 2020, 27(6): 51-61, 173.]
[37]	Li Wei, He Canfei. Regional industrial diversification of China: Based on technological relatedness and complexity. Progress in Geography, 2021, 40(4): 620-634. doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.04.007
	[李伟, 贺灿飞. 中国区域产业演化路径: 基于技术关联性与技术复杂性的研究. 地理科学进展, 2021, 40(4): 620-634.] doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.04.007
[38]	He Canfei. Regional industrial development and evolution: Path dependence or path creation? Geographical Research, 2018, 37(7): 1253-1267. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201807001
	[贺灿飞. 区域产业发展演化: 路径依赖还是路径创造? 地理研究, 2018, 37(7): 1253-1267.] doi: 10.11821/dlyj201807001
[39]	He Canfei, Dong Yao, Zhou Yi. Evolution of export product space in China: Path-dependent or path-breaking? Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(6): 970-983.
	[贺灿飞, 董瑶, 周沂. 中国对外贸易产品空间路径演化. 地理学报, 2016, 71(6): 970-983.]
[40]	Tsiapa M, Kallioras D, Tzeremes N G. The role of path-dependence in the resilience of EU regions. European Planning Studies, 2018, 26(6): 1099-1120. doi: 10.1080/09654313.2018.1458284
[41]	Hill E W, Wial H, Wolman H. Exploring regional economic resilience. Institute of Urban and Regional Development, 2008: 1-21.
[42]	Guan Haoming, Zhang Pingyu, Liu Wenxin, et al. A comparative analysis of the economic transition process of China's old industrial cities based on evolutionary resilience theory. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(4): 771-783. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201804013
	[关皓明, 张平宇, 刘文新, 等. 基于演化弹性理论的中国老工业城市经济转型过程比较. 地理学报, 2018, 73(4): 771-783.] doi: 10.11821/dlxb201804013
[43]	Li Liangang, Zhang Pingyu, Guan Haoming, et al. Analysis of the regional economic resilience characteristics based on Shift-Share method in Liaoning old industrial base. Geographical Research, 2019, 38(7): 1807-1819. doi: 10.11821/dlyj020180245
	[李连刚, 张平宇, 关皓明, 等. 基于Shift-Share的辽宁老工业基地区域经济弹性特征分析. 地理研究, 2019, 38(7): 1807-1819.] doi: 10.11821/dlyj020180245
[44]	Du Zhiwei, Jin Lixia, Liu Qiuhua. Industrial diversity, innovation, and economic resilience: Empirical analysis of the Pearl River Delta in the post-financial crisis era. Tropical Geography, 2019, 39(2): 170-179.
	[杜志威, 金利霞, 刘秋华. 产业多样化、创新与经济韧性: 基于后危机时期珠三角的实证. 热带地理, 2019, 39(2): 170-179.]
[45]	Hu Zhiqiang, Miao Changhong, Xiong Xuelei, et al. Influence of industrial agglomeration on the industrial resilience of the Yellow River Basin. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2021, 41(5): 824-831. doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.05.010
	[胡志强, 苗长虹, 熊雪蕾, 等. 产业集聚对黄河流域工业韧性的影响研究. 地理科学, 2021, 41(5): 824-831.] doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.05.010
[46]	Lin Geng, Xu Xin, Yang Fan. Specialization, variety and economic resilience of specialized towns in Foshan. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2020, 40(9): 1493-1504. doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.09.011
	[林耿, 徐昕, 杨帆. 佛山市产业专业化、多样化与经济韧性的关系研究. 地理科学, 2020, 40(9): 1493-1504.] doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.09.011
[47]	Liu Yi, Ji Jiehan, Zhang Yifan, et al. Economic resilience and spatial divergence in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in China. Geographical Research, 2020, 39(9): 2029-2043. doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200418
	[刘逸, 纪捷韩, 张一帆, 等. 粤港澳大湾区经济韧性的特征与空间差异研究. 地理研究, 2020, 39(9): 2029-2043.] doi: 10.11821/dlyj020200418
[48]	Guo Qi, He Canfei. Progress of research on technological relatedness in the perspective of evolutionary economic geography. Progress in Geography, 2018, 37(2): 229-238. doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.02.006
	[郭琪, 贺灿飞. 演化经济地理视角下的技术关联研究进展. 地理科学进展, 2018, 37(2): 229-238.] doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.02.006
[49]	Coniglio N D, Lagravinese R, Vurchio D, et al. The pattern of structural change: Testing the product space framework. Industrial and Corporate Change, 2018, 27(4): 763-785. doi: 10.1093/icc/dty009
[50]	Duranton G, Puga D. Diversity and specialisation in cities: Why, where and when does it matter? SSRN Electronic Journal, 1999. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.180868. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.180868
[51]	Wang Yu, Li Haiyang. Dealing with endogenity issues in managenment research: A review and solutions. Quarterly Journal of Management, 2017, 2(3): 20-47, 170-171.
	[王宇, 李海洋. 管理学研究中的内生性问题及修正方法. 管理学季刊, 2017, 2(3): 20-47, 170-171.]
[52]	Windmeijer F. A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators. Journal of Econometrics, 2005, 126(1): 25-51. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2004.02.005
[53]	Hong Li, Yin Kang. Inflection point of inverted U-curve for urbanization and the urban-rural inequality in China: An empirical analysis based on provincial panel data. Statistics & Information Forum, 2015, 30(9): 12-21.
	[洪丽, 尹康. 中国城镇化与城乡收入差距的“倒U型”拐点测度: 基于东、中、西部地区省际面板数据的实证研究. 统计与信息论坛, 2015, 30(9): 12-21.]
[54]	Zhang Zhiqiang. A comparative study on dynamic panel parameter estimation. Statistical Research, 2017, 34(9): 108-119.
	[张志强. 动态面板模型参数估计方法的比较研究. 统计研究, 2017, 34(9): 108-119.]
[55]	De Vos I, Everaert G, Ruyssen I. Bootstrap-based bias correction and inference for dynamic panels with fixed effects. The Stata Journal: Promoting Communications on Statistics and Stata, 2015, 15(4): 986-1018. doi: 10.1177/1536867X1501500404
[56]	Xin Long, Sun Hui, Wang Hui, et al. Research on the spatial-temporal differentiation and driving force of green economic efficiency based on the geographic detector model. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2020, 30(9): 128-138.
	[辛龙, 孙慧, 王慧, 等. 基于地理探测器的绿色经济效率时空分异及驱动力研究. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2020, 30(9): 128-138.]

	变量	具体指标	符号	形式	样本数	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
因变量	区域经济韧性	经济韧性指数	RES		132	-0.050	0.180	-0.680	0.320
自变量	路径依赖	路径依赖度	PD		132	0.590	0.110	0.210	0.850
	路径突破	路径突破度	PC		132	0.400	0.110	0.120	0.790
控制变量	产业多样化	产业多样化指数	VAR	ln	132	1.540	0.150	0.920	1.700
	三次产业结构	第三产业比重	TIS	ln	132	-0.860	0.130	-1.150	-0.450
	经济发展水平	人均GDP	EDL	ln	132	10.210	0.640	8.620	11.480
	市场化水平	规模以上工业企业非国有占比	ML	ln	132	-0.130	0.160	-0.890	-0.010
	创新能力	专利申请数占全国比重	PPA	ln	132	-3.460	1.420	-6.990	-1.400
		R&D人员全时当量	RDP	ln	132	8.490	1.000	5.310	10.270
	固定资产投资	人均固定资产投资	PFAI	ln	132	9.500	0.790	7.350	11.080
		固定资产投资占GDP比重	FAIR	ln	132	-0.690	0.370	-1.430	0.270
	就业情况	城镇登记失业率	UR	ln	132	-3.300	0.170	-3.730	-2.730

变量	模型1固定效应(FE)	模型2偏差修正的固定效应(BCFE)	模型3一步系统GMM
L.RES	0.774^***(10.32)	1.001^***(7.58)	0.721^***(9.33)
PD	0.508^**(2.30)	0.706^**(2.09)	0.959^**(1.98)
PC	0.585^**(2.37)	0.811^**(2.29)	1.027^**(2.12)
VAR	0.048(0.30)	-0.054(-0.16)	0.347^*(1.97)
TIS	-0.575^**(-2.57)	-0.832^**(-2.24)	-0.266(-1.43)
EDL	0.876(1.05)	0.275(0.25)	2.057^**(2.10)
ML	0.222(0.88)	0.077(0.21)	-0.285(-1.66)
PPA	0.098^**(3.12)	0.129^**(2.51)	-0.063^***(-2.72)
RDP	0.126^**(2.71)	0.158^**(2.16)	-0.051(-1.24)
PFAI	-1.155(-1.43)	-0.606(-0.55)	-1.994^**(-2.10)
FAIR	0.921(1.17)	0.360(0.33)	1.847^*(1.86)
UR	0.090(0.88)	0.155(0.88)	-0.326^**(-2.01)
样本数	121	121	121
R²	0.801
AB test for AR(2)			0.403
Sargan test			0.118

变量	模型4固定效应(FE)	模型5偏差修正的固定效应(BCFE)	模型6一步系统GMM	模型7因子探测
L.RES	0.810^***(12.31)	1.031^***(7.65)	0.657^***(5.72)
PD	0.439^**(2.24)	0.664^*(1.88)	1.030^*(1.95)	0.044^*
PC	0.506^**(0.221)	0.765^**(0.378)	1.055^**(1.98)	0.071^***
VAR	0.060(-0.38)	-0.164(-0.50)	0.313(1.15)	0.085^*
TIS	-0.585^**(-2.29)	-0.796^**(-2.05)	-0.423(-1.38)	0.056^*
EDL	0.417(0.49)	0.009(0.01)	3.168^**(2.32)	0.122^***
ML	0.027(0.14)	0.124(0.52)	-0.260(-1.06)	0.132^***
PPA	0.103^**(2.87)	0.140^***(2.67)	-0.022(-0.32)	0.124^***
RDP	0.157^***(3.22)	0.183^**(2.26)	-0.108(-1.18)
PFAI	-0.0266(-0.14)	-0.382(-0.30)	-3.131^**(-2.28)	0.101^***
FAIR	-0.750(-0.89)	0.192(0.15)	2.895^**(2.11)	0.182^***
UR	0.557(0.65)	0.150(0.82)	-0.366^*(-1.77)	0.148^***
样本数	121	121	121	176
R²	0.798
AB test for AR(2)			0.336
Sargan test			0.295

Influence of industrial evolution path dependence and path creation on regional economic resilience: Taking the coastal areas of China as an example

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 6

References 56

Related Articles 4

Metrics

Comments

[1]	GUAN Haoming, YANG Qingshan, HAO Feilong, FENG Zhangxian. Economic resilience characteristics of Shenyang city based on a perspective of industry-enterprise-space [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 415-427.
[2]	HE Canfei, YU Changda, JIN Lulu. Trade protection, export spillover effects and the expanding route of Chinese export market [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(4): 665-680.
[3]	ZHOU Yi,HE Canfei. Evolution of urban export product in China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(6): 1097-1111.
[4]	HE Canfei, HU Xuqian. Evolution of Chinese industrial geography since reform and opening-up [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(10): 1962-1979.