共享社会经济路径下中国碳中和路径预测

doi:10.11821/dlxb202209004

Abstract

Abstract:

Scientifically predicting and analyzing China's carbon neutrality pathways under different scenarios is helpful for the reasonable advancement of carbon neutrality goals, but there has been limited comprehensive analysis that combines carbon emission-sink change trend and a systematic analysis that uses international scenarios for climate change research. Our research simulates China's carbon emission-sink paths in the 21st century under the shared social economic paths, with the usage of WITCH integrated assessment model and IBIS vegetation dynamic model. We also predict and analyze the timetable and paths of China's carbon neutralization. We find that: (1) China's carbon aggregates show that there is a 3-4 year cyclical fluctuation. Under the RCP6.0 climate scenario, China's average carbon sinks are stable at about 0.30 Gt C/a. Under the RCP2.6 climate scenario, the amount shows a downward trend, and it is predicted to drop to about 0.18 Gt C/a in 2065-2100. (2) China's carbon emissions are jointly affected by world's economic and social development path and policy intensity. Under medium or high intensity emission reduction policies, China's carbon emissions will show a downward trend after reaching the peak in 2025-2030, and under SSP1 or SSP4 with high intensity carbon emission reduction policy, carbon emissions will be reduced to about 0.30 Gt C/a in 2060 and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. (3) The research of pathways based on typical carbon neutral scenarios finds that, it is required to actively promote the progress and application of clean energy technology, the transformation of non-electric energy to electric energy, the popularity of biomass energy and CCS technology, and advocate the development of electric vehicles in order to realize carbon neutrality goals.

Key words: shared social economic paths, carbon neutrality, carbon sink, carbon emissions, China

LIU Zemiao, HUANG Xianjin, LU Xuehe, LI Shengfeng, QI Xinxian. China's carbon neutrality path prediction under the shared social economic paths[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(9): 2189-2201.

Figures/Tables 7

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References 54

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碳减排政策强度	SSP1	SSP2	SSP3	SSP4	SSP5
无	约4.5	4.5~6.0	4.5~6.0	约4.5	约6.0
中	2.6~3.4	3.4	2.6~3.4	2.6~3.4	3.4~4.5
高	1.9~2.6	2.6	1.9~2.6	1.9~2.6	2.6~3.4

China's carbon neutrality path prediction under the shared social economic paths

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情景名称	适应挑战难度	缓解挑战难度	SSPs情景下中国发展路径
SSP1	低	低	迅速的技术变革、经济全球化促进了经济发展与低碳能源技术发展,具有能源强度低、环保意识强与可再生能源大规模应用的特点。
SSP2	中	中	遵循当前经济社会与技术发展趋势路径,内外部条件均偏向折中。
SSP3	高	高	缓慢的技术进步、经济逆全球化阻碍了经济发展与低碳能源技术发展,具有能源强度高、传统能源淘汰速度慢的特点。
SSP4	高	低	较快的技术变革与经济逆全球化使经济发展速度中等,低碳能源技术发展与应用仍然较快但不及SSP1情景。
SSP5	低	高	在经济全球化与人力资本高投资的驱动下经济快速发展,但低碳能源发展速度缓慢,具有能源强度高、传统能源持续大规模应用的特点。

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