2010—2060年中国森林生态系统固碳速率省际不平衡性及调控策略

doi:10.11821/dlxb202207016

Abstract

Abstract:

Forest ecosystem, as a predominant component of terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks, has a high potential for carbon sequestration. Accurate estimation of the carbon sequestration rate in forest ecosystems at provincial level is a prerequisite and foundation for scientifically formulating the technical approaches of carbon neutrality and associated regulatory policies. However, research on future carbon sequestration rates (CSRs) for forest ecosystems for provincial-level regions (hereafter province) in China has rarely been reported. This paper quantitatively assesses the carbon sequestration rates of existing forest ecosystems of all the provinces from 2010 to 2060 using the Forest Carbon Sequestration model (FCS), in combination with large quantities of measured data in China under three future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Results showed that CSRs across provinces varied from 0.01Tg C/a to 36.74 Tg C/a, with a mean of (10.09±0.43) Tg C/a. There are apparent inter-provincial differences in view of forest CSRs. In terms of the spatial variations in CSRs on unit area basis within provinces, the eastern region has larger capacity to sequestration than the western region, while the western region has greater CSR per unit GDP and per capita. Moreover, there are significant negative correlations between the CSRs per capita in each province and the corresponding GDP per capita, under an assumption that GDP per capita is constant across provinces. In summary, there is a significant regional imbalance of the CSR among provinces, and major technical and policy changes are needed to realize their carbon sink potential sustainably. In view of the overlap between China's poor areas and high ecological carbon sink areas, it is indicated that the existing policies to support the traditional carbon trading are far from sufficient. It is urgent to take China's regulatory measures such as "regional carbon compensation" in line with the Chinese characteristics, so that people in western or underdeveloped regions can voluntarily/consciously strengthen forest protection and enhance forest carbon sinks on the basis of ensuring coordinated regional development, thus China's forests can play a greater role in carbon neutrality strategies.

Key words: forest, carbon cycle, carbon sequestration, carbon sink, imbalance, sustainability, carbon neutrality, carbon trading

CAI Weixiang, XU Li, LI Mingxu, SUN Osbert Jianxin, HE Nianpeng. Imbalance of inter-provincial forest carbon sequestration rate (2010-2060) in China and its regulation strategy[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(7): 1808-1820.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Annual changes of vegetation carbon sequestration rate in Chinese forests by province from 2010 to 2060

省份	森林面积 (10⁴km²)	森林植被固碳速率(Tg C/a)
省份	森林面积 (10⁴km²)	2010—2020年	2020—2030年	2030—2040年	2040—2050年	2050—2060年	平均值
安徽	3.12	4.96±0.22a	4.79±0.30a	3.39±0.57b	2.53±0.55b	1.24±0.78c	3.38±0.11
北京	0.44	0.73±0.02ab	0.83±0.04a	0.66±0.08b	0.51±0.08c	0.21±0.10d	0.59±0.01
重庆	3.46	2.58±0.07ab	2.95±0.20a	2.92±0.23a	2.33±0.11b	1.47±0.41c	2.45±0.07
福建	8.33	12.32±0.58a	11.36±0.79a	8.07±1.44b	6.34±1.43bc	4.80±2.06c	8.58±0.26
甘肃	2.10	0.64±0.04a	0.73±0.13a	0.77±0.21a	0.83±0.16a	1.01±0.37a	0.79±0.05
广东	10.67	11.82±0.35a	14.23±0.92b	12.19±0.97a	10.08±1.04a	6.26±1.80c	10.91±0.29
广西	12.58	10.76±0.21a	11.31±0.84a	9.80±1.00a	7.58±0.36b	6.94±1.46b	9.28±0.29
贵州	6.27	0.81±0.06a	1.63±0.24ab	2.15±0.37b	1.76±0.17b	1.25±0.98ab	1.52±0.17
海南	0.92	0.65±0.05a	0.74±0.04b	0.62±0.05a	0.51±0.02c	0.42±0.07c	0.59±0.03
河北	3.97	6.41±0.25ab	7.36±0.40b	6.27±0.73ab	5.02±0.92b	2.70±1.09c	5.55±0.12
黑龙江	19.77	34.89±0.49a	34.04±0.96a	27.11±2.15b	19.42±1.80c	12.87±3.32d	25.67±0.91
河南	2.07	2.98±0.06a	3.10±0.19a	2.36±0.20b	1.73±0.15c	0.25±0.36d	2.08±0.06
湖北	6.21	8.62±0.09a	7.93±0.62a	5.51±0.52b	3.87±0.20c	4.29±0.71c	6.04±0.18
湖南	8.87	9.73±0.10ab	11.75±0.64c	10.70±0.71bc	9.56±0.83ab	8.98±1.17a	10.15±0.15
内蒙古	16.26	18.75±0.93ab	22.19±1.54b	20.17±2.69ab	18.36±3.99ab	16.00±4.22b	19.09±0.40
江苏	0.31	0.50±0.02a	0.48±0.02a	0.43±0.03b	0.30±0.03c	0.42±0.01b	0.43±0.00
江西	9.78	10.45±0.37a	12.29±0.68a	10.80±1.24a	9.88±1.46a	6.31±1.98b	9.94±0.25
吉林	8.33	15.93±0.24a	15.87±0.44a	12.77±0.67b	8.41±0.71c	5.56±1.32d	11.71±0.40
辽宁	5.57	8.12±0.06a	9.72±0.26a	9.51±0.80a	8.60±1.41a	6.16±1.27b	8.42±0.18
宁夏	0.07	0.03±0.00a	0.03±0.00a	0.04±0.01a	0.03±0.01a	0.04±0.02a	0.03±0.00
青海	0.29	0.05±0.00a	0.07±0.03ab	0.10±0.04ab	0.14±0.04b	0.14±0.05b	0.10±0.01
陕西	5.92	6.23±0.12a	6.28±0.37a	5.41±0.43b	4.12±0.18c	2.48±0.65d	4.91±0.13
山东	1.83	2.21±0.10a	2.86±0.19a	2.86±0.36a	2.79±0.57a	2.27±0.58a	2.60±0.04
上海	< 0.01	< 0.01a	< 0.01a	< 0.01a	< 0.01a	< 0.01a	< 0.01
山西	2.49	2.56±0.06a	3.55±0.25b	3.19±0.28b	2.66±0.25a	1.82±0.38c	2.76±0.05
四川	14.11	2.65±0.04a	3.45±1.21ab	5.63±2.13ab	6.92±1.54b	6.59±3.31b	5.05±0.45
天津	0.03	0.04±0.00ab	0.05±0.00b	0.05±0.01b	0.05±0.01ab	0.03±0.01a	0.05±0.00
西藏	8.49	2.39±0.27a	3.01±0.76ab	4.10±1.32ab	4.90±1.56b	4.26±1.05ab	3.73±0.07
新疆	2.48	0.22±0.02a	0.28±0.10a	0.40±0.10a	0.34±0.28a	0.60±0.69a	0.37±0.14
云南	18.99	7.14±0.13a	6.84±2.74a	9.58±3.99a	7.23±2.93a	4.91±2.03b	7.14±0.10
浙江	6.06	8.14±0.43a	8.47±0.66a	6.75±1.13ab	5.57±1.26bc	3.62±1.57c	6.51±0.18
总计	189.79	193.32±3.35	208.2±11.48	184.27±21.62	152.39±20.79	113.91±30.45	170.42±4.52

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Annual changes of soil carbon sequestration rate in Chinese forests by province from 2010 to 2060

省份	森林面积 (10⁴km²)	森林土壤固碳速率(Tg C/a)
省份	森林面积 (10⁴km²)	2010—2020年	2020—2030年	2030—2040年	2040—2050年	2050—2060年	平均值
安徽	3.12	2.45±0.05ab^†	3.62±0.12c	3.48±0.22c	2.92±0.43b	2.05±0.30a	2.90±0.03
北京	0.44	0.05±0.00a	0.36±0.02c	0.45±0.03d	0.42±0.07cd	0.26±0.04b	0.31±0.01
重庆	3.46	2.13±0.03a	3.06±0.09b	3.64±0.11c	3.60±0.19c	3.13±0.16b	3.11±0.01
福建	8.33	4.06±0.14a	7.18±0.30b	7.21±0.53b	6.29±1.17b	4.70±0.78a	5.89±0.08
甘肃	2.10	1.21±0.04a	1.46±0.10ab	1.45±0.13ab	1.55±0.21b	1.73±0.19b	1.48±0.01
广东	10.67	4.89±0.08a	9.47±0.29bc	10.74±0.35d	10.21±1.09cd	8.57±0.43b	8.78±0.10
广西	12.58	5.91±0.09a	9.87±0.34b	11.33±0.44d	10.99±0.63cd	10.28±0.48bc	9.67±0.07
贵州	6.27	3.91±0.09a	4.36±0.17a	4.44±0.18a	4.34±0.39a	4.33±0.42a	4.28±0.02
海南	0.92	0.90±0.00a	0.95±0.02b	0.95±0.02b	0.87±0.03a	0.76±0.03c	0.89±0.00
河北	3.97	1.13±0.06a	3.79±0.16bc	4.68±0.29d	4.46±0.68cd	3.22±0.44b	3.46±0.05
黑龙江	19.77	1.18±0.53a	13.32±0.70b	16.56±1.25c	14.14±1.44b	10.18±0.83d	11.08±0.47
河南	2.07	1.61±0.01a	2.46±0.06b	2.49±0.08b	2.16±0.18c	1.72±0.12a	2.09±0.01
湖北	6.21	5.60±0.03a	7.54±0.21b	7.11±0.18c	5.93±0.31a	4.35±0.08d	6.11±0.04
湖南	8.87	2.92±0.03a	7.22±0.23b	9.05±0.28cd	9.45±0.82c	8.57±0.31d	7.44±0.10
内蒙古	16.26	1.33±0.24a	9.6±0.49b	13.58±1.07c	14.78±2.90c	14.07±1.84c	10.67±0.22
江苏	0.31	0.11±0.01a	0.27±0.00b	0.33±0.01c	0.29±0.02b	0.38±0.01d	0.28±0.00
江西	9.78	6.61±0.09a	9.69±0.26b	10.48±0.50b	10.33±1.21b	7.88±0.75c	9.00±0.11
吉林	8.33	2.74±0.06a	7.75±0.13b	8.78±0.30c	6.82±0.63d	4.77±0.28e	6.17±0.12
辽宁	5.57	2.55±0.02a	3.70±0.07b	5.76±0.37cd	6.28±0.95c	5.15±0.47d	4.69±0.08
宁夏	0.07	0.01±0.00a	0.03±0.00b	0.04±0.00c	0.04±0.01cd	0.05±0.01d	0.03±0.00
青海	0.29	<0.01a	0.02±0.01a	0.04±0.02a	0.09±0.04b	0.10±0.02b	0.05±0.00
陕西	5.92	4.14±0.03a	6.16±0.14b	6.85±0.19c	6.45±0.27b	5.46±0.25d	5.81±0.01
山东	1.83	0.17±0.03a	0.35±0.06a	1.48±0.15b	1.90±0.41b	1.68±0.27b	1.12±0.03
上海	< 0.01	<0.01a	<0.01a	<0.01a	<0.01a	<0.01a	<0.01
山西	2.49	1.06±0.01a	2.32±0.09b	2.78±0.12c	2.72±0.25c	2.40±0.12b	2.26±0.02
四川	14.11	6.51±0.20a	7.15±0.76a	8.09±1.18ab	9.84±1.69b	9.90±1.78b	8.30±0.08
天津	0.03	0.01±0.00a	0.03±0.00b	0.04±0.00c	0.04±0.01c	0.03±0.01bc	0.03±0.00
西藏	8.49	2.53±0.06a	2.66±0.36a	3.43±0.64a	4.84±1.08b	4.93±0.56b	3.68±0.08
新疆	2.48	0.74±0.04a	1.65±0.02b	1.58±0.08b	1.36±0.34ab	1.52±0.84b	1.37±0.20
云南	18.99	18.72±4.64a	16.63±2.08ab	15.08±1.95ab	14.56±2.66ab	11.8±1.10b	15.36±0.94
浙江	6.06	5.46±0.11a	7.37±0.24b	7.39±0.47b	6.60±0.92b	4.93±0.69a	6.35±0.05
总计	189.79	90.64±4.20	150.03±5.32	169.32±9.25	164.30±19.38	138.90±9.99	142.64±0.54

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Annual changes of soil carbon sequestration rate in Chinese forest ecosystem by province from 2010 to 2060

省份	森林面积 (10⁴km²)	森林生态系统固碳速率(Tg C/a)
省份	森林面积 (10⁴km²)	2010—2020年	2020—2030年	2030—2040年	2040—2050年	2050—2060年	平均值
安徽	3.12	7.41±0.28ab^†	8.41±0.41b	6.87±0.79a	5.44±0.98c	3.28±1.08d	6.28±0.11
北京	0.44	0.78±0.02a	1.19±0.05b	1.11±0.11bc	0.93±0.15ac	0.47±0.14d	0.90±0.01
重庆	3.46	4.71±0.10a	6.02±0.29b	6.56±0.34b	5.93±0.29b	4.60±0.57a	5.56±0.07
福建	8.33	16.38±0.71ab	18.55±1.07b	15.28±1.97ab	12.63±2.61bc	9.49±2.83c	14.47±0.23
甘肃	2.10	1.85±0.08a	2.19±0.23ab	2.21±0.34ab	2.38±0.36ab	2.74±0.56b	2.27±0.05
广东	10.67	16.71±0.43a	23.69±1.21b	22.93±1.32bc	20.3±2.13c	14.83±2.23a	19.69±0.22
广西	12.58	16.66±0.29a	21.17±1.17b	21.13±1.43b	18.57±0.95a	17.22±1.93a	18.95±0.27
贵州	6.27	4.72±0.15a	5.99±0.40ab	6.59±0.55b	6.11±0.55ab	5.58±1.39ab	5.80±0.17
海南	0.92	1.54±0.05a	1.69±0.05b	1.58±0.07ab	1.38±0.05c	1.18±0.09d	1.48±0.03
河北	3.97	7.54±0.31ab	11.15±0.56c	10.95±1.02c	9.48±1.61bc	5.91±1.53a	9.01±0.12
黑龙江	19.77	36.07±0.63a	47.36±1.66b	43.67±3.39b	33.57±3.22a	23.05±4.11c	36.74±1.35
河南	2.07	4.59±0.07a	5.56±0.25b	4.85±0.28a	3.89±0.32c	1.97±0.47d	4.17±0.06
湖北	6.21	14.23±0.11a	15.47±0.84b	12.61±0.69c	9.80±0.50d	8.64±0.77e	12.15±0.16
湖南	8.87	12.65±0.12a	18.97±0.87b	19.75±0.98b	19.02±1.65b	17.55±1.42b	17.59±0.10
内蒙古	16.26	20.08±1.16a	31.79±2.02b	33.74±3.76b	33.15±6.89b	30.07±6.03b	29.77±0.42
江苏	0.31	0.61±0.03a	0.76±0.02b	0.76±0.04b	0.59±0.05a	0.80±0.00b	0.70±0.00
江西	9.78	17.06±0.46ab	21.97±0.94c	21.28±1.74c	20.21±2.68bc	14.19±2.72a	18.94±0.24
吉林	8.33	18.67±0.30a	23.62±0.57b	21.55±0.96c	15.23±1.34d	10.32±1.58e	17.88±0.48
辽宁	5.57	10.68±0.07a	13.42±0.32bc	15.27±1.17c	14.87±2.36c	11.32±1.73a	13.11±0.21
宁夏	0.07	0.04±0.00a	0.06±0.01ab	0.08±0.01bc	0.08±0.01bc	0.09±0.03c	0.07±0.00
青海	0.29	0.05±0.01a	0.09±0.04a	0.13±0.06ab	0.23±0.08b	0.24±0.07b	0.15±0.01
陕西	5.92	10.37±0.15a	12.44±0.51b	12.26±0.62b	10.57±0.43a	7.94±0.89c	10.72±0.13
山东	1.83	2.38±0.12a	3.21±0.25ab	4.33±0.51bc	4.70±0.97bc	3.95±0.84c	3.71±0.05
上海	< 0.01	< 0.01a	< 0.01a	< 0.01a	< 0.01a	< 0.01a	< 0.01
山西	2.49	3.61±0.07a	5.87±0.33b	5.98±0.39b	5.38±0.50b	4.21±0.48a	5.01±0.03
四川	14.11	9.17±0.16a	10.60±1.97ab	13.72±3.30ab	16.76±3.17b	16.50±5.09b	13.35±0.48
天津	0.03	0.05±0.00a	0.08±0.01b	0.09±0.01b	0.09±0.02b	0.07±0.02ab	0.08±0.00
西藏	8.49	4.92±0.34a	5.67±1.12a	7.52±1.96ab	9.74±2.58b	9.19±1.57b	7.41±0.03
新疆	2.48	0.96±0.04a	1.93±0.12a	1.98±0.18a	1.71±0.62a	2.12±1.53a	1.74±0.34
云南	18.99	25.86±4.71a	23.47±3.78a	24.66±5.67a	21.80±5.59a	16.72±3.09b	22.50±0.99
浙江	6.06	13.60±0.54ab	15.84±0.89b	14.14±1.60ab	12.17±2.18a	8.55±2.26c	12.86±0.19
总计	189.79	283.96±3.39	358.23±16.67	353.59±30.73	316.69±40.12	252.81±40.39	313.06±4.72

Tab. 3

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

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Imbalance of inter-provincial forest carbon sequestration rate (2010-2060) in China and its regulation strategy

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