气候变化和物候变动对东北黑土区农业生产的协同作用及未来粮食生产风险

doi:10.11821/dlxb202207008

Abstract

Abstract:

The black soil region of Northeast China is the major food base and one of the most sensitive regions to climate change in China. However, the characteristics of crop phenological response, the integrated impact of climatic and phenological changes on agricultural productivity in the black soil region of Northeast China under the background of climate change are not clear, the quantitative degree of future agricultural risk assessment is insufficient, and the risk level formulation lacks a basis. Therefore, based on remote sensing products, climate data and model simulations, this study integrated the logistic function fitting curvature derivation, multiple linear regression and scenario simulation to investigate the crop phenology dynamics and its climate response characteristics in this black soil region, and to identify the compound effects of climate and phenology changes on agricultural production and possible future risks. Results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2017, about 29.76% of the black soil region of Northeast China showed a significant delay in the onset of the growing season and 16.71% of the total area showed an advancing trend in the end of the growing season. The time lag effects of the onset of the growing season for crop response to climatic factors depended on site and climatic parameters, with the widespread influence of temperature and its lag time longer in general. (2) Both climatic and phenological changes have a significant effect on the interannual variability of crop production, and the explanatory capacity of both increased by 70.23% and the explanatory area expanded by 85.04% compared to that of climate change in the same period of the growing season. (3) Under RCP8.5 scenario, the future crop yield would show a decrease in the north and increase in the south, and when the global temperature rises by 2.0 ℃, the crop yield of southern Songnen black soil subregion would reduce by nearly 10%. Spatial and temporal variation of drought would adversely affect crop production. The study will help to understand the mechanisms underlying climate change, phenological response and productivity dynamics, and also help to strengthen the risk management of agro-meteorological disasters, which is important to ensure national food security and regional climate change response.

Key words: black soil region of Northeast China, vegetation phenology, vegetation productivity, lag effect, future risk

GAO Jiangbo, LIU Lulu, GUO Linghui, SUN Dongqi, LIU Wanlu, HOU Wenjuan, WU Shaohong. Synergic effects of climate change and phenological variation on agricultural production and its risk pattern in black soil region of Northeast China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(7): 1681-1700.

Figures/Tables 9

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Synergic effects of climate change and phenological variation on agricultural production and its risk pattern in black soil region of Northeast China

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