西藏地质灾害易发性及对水能开发适宜度影响

doi:10.11821/dlxb202207003

Abstract

Abstract:

Tibet is recognized as the key repository and focal area for future hydropower development in China because of its high capacity for hydropower storage; however, frequent occurrence of geological hazards in this region have posed great challenges to us. Priority should be given to the effects of geological hazards on the suitability of areas in Tibet for hydropower development. Based on the maximum entropy model, the susceptibility of potential development areas to three typical geological hazards (debris flow, avalanche, and landslide) was calculated using data of landforms, hydrometeorology, and vegetation coverage of Tibet. Furthermore, hydropower development suitability was evaluated by considering distribution of potential hydropower storage alongside geological hazard susceptibility. The results show that the Qiangna-Bangxin section of the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo River has the highest suitability and would be a prime development target. The Mali-Linka and Zhonglinka-Chawalong sections in the middle reaches of the Nujiang River, the Tiantuo-Bitu section of the Weiqu River, the Chaya-Cuowa, Rumei-Yanjing, and Muxie-Gobo sections in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River, the Motuo-Lijia and Xiaru-Penji sections in the lower and upper reaches, respectively, of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, and the Pengqu River Basin in the Himalayas are all highly suitable for hydropower development. However, these areas also show high susceptibility to geological hazards, so they should be developed with caution. The Renbu-Qushui section in the middle reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, the Zhongyu-Yigong section of the Yigong Tsangpo River, the southern section of the Chayu River, and the lower reaches of the Langqin Tsangpo River show moderate suitability and low hazard susceptibility, and thus present future development opportunities. Therefore, other areas are not suitable for hydropower development. This study presents an effective suitability evaluation method for hydropower development in Tibet, and its results provide a scientific basis for hydropower planning and site selection in this region.

Key words: Tibet, hydropower, geological hazard susceptibility, maximum entropy model, hydropower development suitability

ZHANG Xiguo, ZHOU Xiongdong, XU Mengzhen, LIANG Xinyue. Distribution of hydropower development suitability in Tibet in the face of geological hazard susceptibility[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(7): 1603-1614.

Figures/Tables 9

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岩体	赋值
花岗岩、石英岩、石英砂岩等	5
钙质砂岩、白云岩、石灰岩、板岩等	4
千枚岩、泥灰岩、砂质泥岩等	3
页岩、泥岩、泥质砂岩等	2
沉积物、冰碛物、碎屑岩等	1
水体、雪被区等	0

易发风险等级	泥石流	崩塌	滑坡
极高易发性	5.34	6.93	4.38
高易发性	4.86	6.78	3.92
中等易发性	9.21	11.03	5.83
低易发性	22.22	22.52	11.47
极低易发性	58.37	52.74	74.40

综合易发性等级	标准	面积占比
VI	3类地质灾害均为极高易发性	2.20
V	3类地质灾害均为高易发性或以上	2.94
IV	两类地质灾害为高易发性或以上	4.75
III	一类地质灾害为高易发性或以上	7.28
II	3类地质灾害均为中易发性或以下	11.17
I	3类地质灾害均为低或极低易发性	71.66

Distribution of hydropower development suitability in Tibet in the face of geological hazard susceptibility

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