Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (12): 2978-2992.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202112008

• Population and Urban Studies • Previous Articles     Next Articles

The intentions of migrants with respect to duration of residence: Spatial variation and determinants

LI Tingting1,2(), ZHU Yu3,4(), LIN Liyue1,3, KE Wenqian1,3, XIAO Baoyu1,3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Processes of the Ministry of Education, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
    2. Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
    3. Institute of Geography, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
    4. Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China
  • Received:2020-12-30 Revised:2021-08-18 Online:2021-12-25 Published:2022-02-25
  • Contact: ZHU Yu;
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971180);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971168);Public-Funded Key Project of Department of Science and Technology, Fujian(2019R1002-1)


Using data from the national migration survey of 2018, the intentions of migrants with respect to duration of residence have been categorized into three types, namely, short-term residence, long-term residence, and permanent residence. On this basis, GIS spatial analysis and hierarchical linear modelling (HLM) have been used to examine the determinants and the spatial variation of various categories of residence intentions in 290 prefecture- and provincial-level cities of China. The results show that those with short-term and long-term residence intentions account for 60% of the total number of migrants, suggesting that bi- and multi-locational livelihood strategies are still dominant among migrants in China. It was found that there is a strong contrast between the spatial patterns for short-term residence intentions and that of permanent residence intentions. Furthermore, the short-term residence intentions are relatively high in the eastern region of the country and relatively low in the northeastern region; in contrast, the permanent residence intentions exhibit a spatial pattern completely different from that of the short-term residence intentions, and the long-term residence intentions are the highest in the central and western regions. The HLM results show that the characteristics of both the destination and the migrants at the individual level affect different categories of residence intentions. It is found that the short-term and long-term residence intentions are relatively high, and the permanent residence intentions are relatively low in the eastern and central regions, and in areas with more developed economies and high average wage levels. Moreover, for male, inter-provincial migrating, agricultural hukou status, lower educational attainments, shorter migration duration, and lower average monthly household income, are the factors conducive to short-term and long-term residence intentions; for female, intra-provincial migrating, non-agricultural hukou status, higher educational attainments, longer migration duration, and higher average monthly household income, tend to promote permanent residence intentions.

Key words: migration, residence duration, residence intention, spatial variation, determinant, China