Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (8): 2032-2047.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202108015
• Transportation and Tourism Geography • Previous Articles Next Articles
ZHAO Zan1,2(), LU Lin1(
), REN Yisheng3
Received:
2020-03-26
Revised:
2021-07-08
Online:
2021-08-25
Published:
2021-10-25
Contact:
LU Lin
E-mail:zz7476@126.com;llin@263.net
Supported by:
ZHAO Zan, LU Lin, REN Yisheng. Evolution and dynamic characteristics of tourism destination complex system from the perspective of nonlinearity: A case study of Shanghai[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(8): 2032-2047.
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Tab. 2
Degree distribution exponents and 95% confidence interval of time series
时间序列 | λ值 | 置信区间(95%) | 变异系数 | Sig(双侧) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month | 0.264 | 0.022 | - | 0.000 |
Year | 0.409 | 0.529 | - | 0.059 |
INT | 0.201 | 0.016 | - | 0.000 |
DOM | 0.298 | 0.021 | - | 0.000 |
Rnd | 0.589 | 0.051 | 0.245 | - |
Fbm | 0.533 | 0.124 | 0.327 | - |
Lgst | 0.331 | 0.044 | 0.236 | - |
Lorenz | 0.291 | 0.058 | 0.277 | - |
Tab. 3
Turning point value and year
时间序列 | 模块时间节点(年月) | 年份 |
---|---|---|
Month | 2008.12,2010.12,2013.11,2016.05 | 2008,2010,2013,2016 |
Year | 2002,2006,2008,2010,2013,2016 | 2002,2006,2008,2010,2013,2016 |
INT | 2008.04,2010.10,2013.10,2016.11 | 2008,2010,2013,2016 |
DOM | 2008.12,2010.12,2013.04,2016.05 | 2008,2010,2013,2016 |
Month(2013.01—2018.06) | 2013.11,2016.05 | 2013,2016 |
Year(1998—2013年) | 2002,2006,2008,2010 | 2002,2006,2008,2010 |
Tab. 4
Evolution phase characteristics of tourism destination complex system in Shanghai
演化阶段 | 系统特征(产业结构、规模、业态等) | 转折点 重要事件 | 主导行 动者 | 子系统 |
---|---|---|---|---|
1998—2002年 | 旅游业实现“外事接待型”向“经济产业型”转变,成为国民经济新的增长点。以都市旅游观光产品为主,商业、休闲旅游逐步成为都市旅游重要组成部分,会展、工业、农业旅游新兴业态得到一定发展。“非典”疫情爆发后,旅游者人数明显下降。 | 2002年“非典”疫情爆发 | 自然 环境 | 外部 环境 |
2003—2006年 | 都市旅游发展格局初步确立,传统观光旅游、工业旅游、农业旅游、休闲度假旅游、会展旅游进一步发展。通过“两节三赛”,创新旅游产品,中国旅游交易会及上海旅游节等节庆活动发展为国际性大型旅游节,上海向国际性大都市迈进,接待旅游者人数呈明显上升态势。 | 2006年举办多项世界国际性活动赛事 | 政府 | 主体 系统 |
2007—2008年 | 以“服务奥运”“迎世博”为契机,推动旅游产业集聚,提升旅游自主创新能力,增强旅游国际竞争力。都市旅游成为上海建设大都市的重要途径和形象品牌,节庆会展旅游更趋势国际化;形成国际、国内旅游共同繁荣局面,接待旅游者人数呈显著增长趋势。 | 2008年北京奥运会足球赛事|分会场 | ||
2009—2010年 | 世博会的举办,推动上海多中心、多流向、多圈层旅游格局的形成,旅游业成为上海支柱产业。工业旅游、文化旅游等专项产品不断升级,邮轮旅游、农旅等新型旅游业态蓬勃发展,形成一批具有国际影响力的城市旅游品牌,接待旅游者人数都呈迅速大幅增长态势。 | 2010年举办上海世界博览会 | ||
2011—2013年 | 以“创新驱动、转型发展”为主旨,大力发展邮轮旅游,邮轮旅游者人数突破百万人大关,成为上海新兴旅游业态的新增长点,出入境旅游者增长120%。注重旅游与相关产业创新融合,智慧旅游、旅游信息服务等旅游公共服务品质日益提升,形成以旅游业为核心、以服务型经济为主的产业结构。 | 2013年举办首届邮轮旅游节,成立中国邮轮旅游发展实验区 | ||
2014—2016年 | 以迪士尼开园为契机,大力创新旅游产品,突出上海都市旅游发展核心,形成“旅游+”十大系列产品,实现了从单一观光、休闲向观光、休闲、度假、商务、会议并重的旅游产业发展方式转变和转型升级,逐步形成“大旅游、大产业”的发展格局。 | 2016上海迪士尼开业 | 企业 | |
2017年— | 迪士尼溢出带动效应显著,“本土第一、世界精品”的黄浦江旅游休闲区、崇明世界生态岛等由外资、民资及社会资本参与的具有国际性吸引力的重点项目不断涌现;旅游“大旅游、大市场、大产业”产业融合格局基本形成,并由“景区旅游”向“全域旅游”发展格局转变。 | - |
Tab. 5
Granger F value and degree distribution index of international inbound and domestic tourism in Shanghai
构成 | 占比(%) | F值 | λ值 | 置信区间(95%) | sig.(双侧) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
国际 入境 旅游 | 新加坡 | 3.18 | 41.38 | 0.208 | 0.055 | 0.000 |
英国 | 2.68 | 23.40 | 0.080 | 0.064 | 0.000 | |
德国 | 3.74 | 20.30 | 0.278 | 0.061 | 0.000 | |
澳大利亚 | 2.55 | 13.06 | 0.076 | 0.058 | 0.049 | |
加拿大 | 2.37 | 11.22 | 0.101 | 0.064 | 0.029 | |
法国 | 2.66 | 10.65 | 0.028 | 0.059 | 0.010 | |
韩国 | 9.12 | 7.73 | 0.063 | 0.055 | 0.032 | |
日本 | 15.12 | 6.93 | 0.132 | 0.064 | 0.019 | |
美国 | 9.94 | 3.74 | 0.438 | 0.057 | 0.010 | |
国内 旅游 | 国内本地游客 | 42.34 | 19.69 | 0.409 | 0.205 | 0.059 |
国内外地游客 | 57.66 | 20.43 | 0.109 | 0.150 | 0.037 |
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