中国3000年疫灾流行的时空特征及其影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlxb202108012

Abstract

Abstract:

Epidemics are one of the most severe events in the human disaster network. On the basis of establishing the epidemic sequence by using historical epidemic data, and using the methods such as historical section analysis, factor correlation analysis, and time sequence analysis, this article examines the spatiotemporal characteristics and causes of the epidemic disasters for the past 2720 years (770 BC-AD 1949) in China. The results show that: (1) The frequency and intensity of epidemic disasters in China have a long-term upward trend, with troughs in the warm periods and peaks in the cold periods. (2) The epidemic prevalence in China generally occurred mainly in summer and autumn, but varied with time, so that since the 1450s, the seasonal difference tended to be less significant due to the increase of the kinds and frequency of epidemics. (3) China's epidemic fluctuation cycles are mainly 620-610 a, 320-310 a, 230-220 a, 170 a, 90 a, etc., which confirms the existence of "Twelve Earthly Branches" cycle and the significant impact of sunspot activity on the epidemic cycles. (4) For the past 3000 years, within the China's territory, the Epidemic Widespread is 93.51%, which indicates the percentage of the number of affected counties to the total number of counties, and the Epidemic Thickness is 16.86 layers, which represents the ratio of cumulative affected counties to the total number of administrative counties. The epidemics in the southeast half of China occurred much more frequently and severely than those in the northwest half. (5) The expansion of the epidemic prevalent areas in China is synchronized with the areal land exploration. The change of the epidemic centers of gravity is obviously affected by the spatial changes of the economic centers of gravity. The centers shifted from north to south before the Southern Song Dynasty, and moved from east to west after that. The import of foreign infectious diseases has a great impact on the distribution pattern of epidemics in China. (6) The prevalence of epidemics is not only a natural phenomenon, but also a sociocultural phenomenon. The change in the spatiotemporal distribution of epidemics reflects the change of human-environmental relationship. The densely populated areas, the areas along the traffic line, the surrounding areas of the capital city, the natural foci areas and the disaster-prone areas are all epidemic-prone areas. (7) The geographical environment has a basic impact on the spatial distribution of epidemics, that is, low altitude, warm and humid areas are prone to the prevalence of epidemics. Natural disasters can induce epidemics, so the disaster-prone area is also the epidemic-prone area, and the disaster-prone period is also the epidemic-prone period. Climate change has impacts on epidemic fluctuations, so epidemics are more frequent in the cold periods than in the warm periods. The land excessive development and the conflict between human and land resulting from population growth intensified the epidemic prevalence. Moreover, epidemics always follow wars, that is, the frequent periods of war are also the frequent periods of epidemic.

Key words: epidemic disaster, spatiotemporal characteristics, impact factor, epidemic cycle, historical period, China

GONG Shengsheng, LI Zimo, XIE Haichao, WANG Xiaowei, ZHANG Tao, SHI Guoning, CHEN Fahu. Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of the epidemic disasters for the past 3000 years in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(8): 1976-1996.

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定性描述	微疫	小疫	中疫	大疫	巨疫	特大疫	超大疫
L_e	1级	2级	3级	4级	5级	6级	7级
N_ec(个)	1~3	4~29	30~50	51~190	191~419	420~644	645~833
N_ed(人)	≤ 2000	2000~5000	5000~10000	10000~30000	30000~50000	50000~100000	> 100000

疫灾指数序列	全时段(770 BC—AD 1949)	前时段(770 BC—AD 960)	后时段(AD 960—AD 1949)
疫灾年数指数序列I_ey	910 a、620 a、220 a	320 a、170 a	610 a、370 a、230 a;310^a、170^a
疫灾等级时点序列L_ey	612 a	72 a	96 a
疫灾等级指数序列I_el	1300 a、620 a	410 a、250 a	220 a、90 a
疫灾等级平均序列A_el	1330 a、960 a、590 a	960 a、390 a、260 a	560 a、90 a、230 a

区域范围	政区县数(个)	项目	汉唐时期	宋元时期	明代时期	清代时期	中华民国时期	历史时期
全国版图	2435	N_ec(个)	1207	1499	953	1754	2201	2277
		∑N_ec(县次)	5116	4903	3019	10480	17546	41064
		W_ec(%)	49.57	61.56	39.14	72.03	90.39	93.51
		T_e(层)	2.10	2.01	1.24	4.30	7.21	16.86
东南半壁	1927	N_ec(个)	1171	1495	937	1558	1854	1911
		∑N_ec(县次)	5079	4898	2994	9711	15148	37830
		W_ec(%)	60.77	77.58	48.62	80.85	96.21	99.17
		T_e(层)	2.64	2.54	1.55	5.04	7.86	19.63
西北半壁	508	N_ec(个)	36	4	16	196	347	366
		∑N_ec(县次)	37	5	25	769	2398	3234
		W_ec(%)	7.09	0.79	3.15	38.58	68.31	72.05
		T_e(层)	0.07	0.01	0.05	1.51	4.72	6.37

分析阶段	历年数(a)	站点数(个)	时空关系	年均气温/ 气温指数	年均降水/ 干湿指数	平均海拔	旱灾	水灾	蝗灾	地震	饥荒
汉唐时期 200 BC—AD 959	1160	63	空间站点相关	0.55^***	0.48^***	-0.37^**	0.82^***	0.65^***	0.61^***	0.64^***	0.64^***
汉唐时期 200 BC—AD 959	1160	63	时间序列相关	-0.37^***	-0.14	-	0.09	0.15	0.17	0.24^***	0.18^**
宋元时期 960—1396年	410	454	空间站点相关	0.29^***	0.29^***	-0.16^***	0.16^***	0.19^***	-0.12^**	0.22^***	0.21^***
宋元时期 960—1396年	410	454	时间序列相关	-0.28^*	-0.32^**	-	0.18^*	0.41^***	0.23	0.44^***	0.33^**
明代时期 1360—1649年	290	238	空间站点相关	0.16^**	0.07	-0.44^***	0.66^***	0.68^***	0.56^***	0.39^***	-
明代时期 1360—1649年	290	238	时间序列相关	-0.61^***	-0.35^*	-	0.86^***	0.74^***	0.68^***	0.64^***	-
清代时期 1640—1909年	270	638	空间站点相关	0.05	0.09	-0.40^***	0.54^***	0.52^***	0.43^***	0.40^***	0.51^***
清代时期 1640—1909年	270	638	时间序列相关	-0.09	-0.19	-	0.18	0.40^**	0.39^**	0.34^*	0.35^**

相关分析区间	温度距平	降水量	尘暴指数	人口总数	耕地面积	战争指数
近3000年疫灾指数 (840 BC—AD 1949)	-0.31^***	-0.79^***	0.10^*	0.65^***	0.99^***	0.25^***
近2000年疫灾指数 (0—1949年)	-0.31^***	-0.71^***	0.17^**	0.64^**	0.92^**	0.15^**
近1000年疫灾指数 (960—1949年)	-0.60^***	-0.51^***	0.27^**	0.54^***	0.82^***	-0.21^**

Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of the epidemic disasters for the past 3000 years in China

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世纪	BC7	BC6	BC4	BC3	BC2	BC1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	小计
1级疫灾	1	4	1	1	3	4	2	1	11	8	5	10	3	4	4	10	10	16	14	14	19	12	12	14	1	0	184
2级疫灾	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9	5	6	9	4	8	0	4	2	16	17	18	22	24	58	62	69	36	0	370
3级疫灾	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	1	3	5	4	0	1	0	3	1	6	9	2	0	6	8	15	5	13	0	87
4级疫灾	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	1	3	0	1	2	2	2	3	2	4	1	1	2	7	6	3	7	15	5	75
5级疫灾	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	1	0	1	2	3	2	5	6	1	1	13	8	49
6级疫灾	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	2	2	0	3	2	0	2	1	0	1	1	5	4	2	0	1	10	13	54
7级疫灾	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	5	4	2	3	5	5	0	12	24	71
合计	1	4	2	2	5	9	12	15	26	22	20	19	18	8	18	16	42	51	43	47	68	97	98	97	100	50	890

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