Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (5): 1257-1273.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202105016
• Resources Use and Environmental Evolution • Previous Articles Next Articles
LIU Shuang1,2(), BAI Jie1, LUO Geping1,2(
), LYU Nana3, WU Miao4
Received:
2019-06-05
Revised:
2020-11-16
Online:
2021-05-25
Published:
2021-07-25
Contact:
LUO Geping
E-mail:liushuang174@mails.ucas.ac.cn;luogp@ms.xjb.ac.cn
Supported by:
LIU Shuang, BAI Jie, LUO Geping, LYU Nana, WU Miao. Analysis and prediction of socio-economic water use in the Aral Sea Basin[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(5): 1257-1273.
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Tab. 1
Spatial distribution and area composition of five Central Asian countries in the Aral Sea Basin
子流域 | 国家 | 面积(104 km2) | 流域占比(%) | 州名 |
---|---|---|---|---|
锡尔河 | 吉尔吉斯斯坦 | 12.5 | 22.7 | 巴特肯州、奥什州、贾拉拉巴德州、纳伦州 |
乌兹别克斯坦 | 6.1 | 11.1 | 安集延州、纳曼干州、费尔干纳州、塔什干州、锡尔河州、吉扎克州 | |
塔吉克斯坦 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 粟特州 | |
哈萨克斯坦 | 34.0 | 61.7 | 南哈萨克斯坦州、克孜勒奥尔达州 | |
阿姆河 | 塔吉克斯坦 | 11.7 | 13.5 | 国家直辖区、哈特隆州、山地—巴达赫尚自治州 |
乌兹别克斯坦 | 39.8 | 46.0 | 卡拉克帕克共和国、花剌子模州、纳沃伊州、布哈拉州、撒马尔罕州、卡什卡河州、苏尔汉河州 | |
土库曼斯坦 | 35.1 | 40.5 | 达绍古兹州、阿哈尔州、马雷州、列巴普州 |
Tab. 2
Data used in the SD modeling of socio-economic water use in the Aral Sea Basin
数据类型 | 数据项 | 数据名称 | 空间尺度 | 年份 | 数据来源/方法 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
地图 | 苏联解体前地图 | 国家/ 州界 | 1990 | 苏联社会主义共和国地图集a | |
中亚5国行政区划数据 | 2010 | 世界分国地图 | |||
社会经济数据 | 产值 | GDP | 国家 | 1960—1964 | 依据1965—2013年数据线性趋势外推 |
1965—2013 | Agricultural Statistical Database of Transition Countries | ||||
2014—2016 | 世界银行 | ||||
农业产值 | 国家 | 1960—1964 | 依据1965—2013年数据线性趋势外推 | ||
1965—2013 | Agricultural Statistical Database of Transition Countries | ||||
2014—2016 | 世界银行 | ||||
工业产值 | 国家 | 1960—2016 | GDP与农业产值之差 | ||
人口 | 城市人口、农村人口 | 分州 | 1960—1979 | 苏联社会主义共和国统计年鉴 | |
1980—1990 | 独联体统计委员会 | ||||
1991—2016 | 中亚5国统计年鉴b、统计局网站c | ||||
种植结构 | 谷物、棉花、饲料、其他作物 面积 | 分州 | 1960—1987 | 苏联社会主义共和国统计年鉴d | |
1988—1990 | 独联体统计委员会e | ||||
1991—2016 | 中亚5国统计年鉴b、统计局网站c | ||||
果园面积 | 国家 | 1960—1987 | 苏联社会主义共和国统计年鉴d | ||
1988—1990 | 独联体统计委员会e | ||||
1991—2016 | 中亚5国统计年鉴b、统计局网站c | ||||
牲畜量 | 牛、羊头数 | 分州 | 1960—1987 | 苏联社会主义共和国统计年鉴d | |
1988—1990 | 依据1987、1991年数据线性插值 | ||||
1991—2016 | 中亚5国统计年鉴b、统计局网站c | ||||
水资源 数据 | 用水量 | 工业、农业、生活用水量 | 国家 | 1980—2016 | ICWC |
灌溉定额 | 文献[ | ||||
灌溉面积 | 国家 | 1962、1966—1980 | 文献[ | ||
1992—2008 | ICWC | ||||
水利工程 | 水库面积、库容 | ICWC | |||
径流量 | 阿姆河、锡尔河径流量 | 1960—2016 | ICWC | ||
入湖水量 | 阿姆河、锡尔河入湖水量 | 1960—2016 | 水文站f |
Tab. 3
Main parameters and equations in the SD model
变量 | 单位 | 方程 |
---|---|---|
人口 | 千人 | 人口=INTEG(人口增长量, 人口初始值) |
人口增长量 | 千人 | 人口增长量=人口×人口增长率/1000 |
生活用水量 | 106 m3 | 生活用水量=(农村人口×农村居民用水定额+城市人口×城市居民用水定额)/1000 |
工业产值 | 106 美元 | 工业产值=INTEG(工业产值增长量, 工业产值初始值) |
工业用水量 | 106 m3 | 工业用水量=工业产值×单位工业产值耗水量/1000 |
牲畜头数 | 千头 | 牲畜头数=INTEG(牲畜增长量, 牲畜初始值) |
畜牧业用水量 | 106 m3 | 畜牧业用水量=(牛数量×牛用水定额+羊数量×羊用水定额)/1000 |
灌溉面积 | 103 hm2 | 灌溉面积=INTEG(灌溉面积增长量, 灌溉面积初始值) |
种植业用水量 | 106 m3 | 种植业用水量=[(谷物面积+果林面积+其他农作物面积)×灌溉面积比例×灌溉定额+棉花面积×灌溉定额×1.2]/1000 |
灌溉量 | m3 | 灌溉量=(每公顷灌溉量+供水变化量)×灌溉系数 |
水库用水量 | 106 m3 | 水库用水量=水库面积×蒸发量+水库蓄容量+水库泄洪量 |
可用水量 | 106 m3 | 可用水量=径流量-入湖水量 |
缺水系数 | % | 缺水系数=总用水量/供水量×100% |
Tab. 4
Calculation of water consumption per unit of the industrial output value (m3/103 USD)
国家 | 单位工业产值耗水量拟合函数 | 判定系数 |
---|---|---|
哈萨克斯坦 | y = -97.85 ln(x-1959)+428.32 | R2 = 0.93 |
吉尔吉斯斯坦 | y = -313.6 ln(x-1959)+1269.5 | R2 = 0.98 |
塔吉克斯坦 | y = -115.1 ln(x-1959)+534.63 | R2 = 0.92 |
土库曼斯坦 | y = -174.8 ln(x-1959)+792.07 | R2 = 0.95 |
乌兹别克斯坦 | y = -99.06 ln(x-1959)+412.61 | R2 = 0.97 |
Tab. 5
Irrigation area ratio in the Aral Sea Basin
国家 | 种植面积(103 hm2) | 灌溉面积(103 hm2) | 灌溉面积比例 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1960 | 2000 | 2010 | 1962 | 2000 | 2010 | 1960 | 2000 | 2010 | |||
哈萨克斯坦 | 28561 | 16195 | 21438 | 1145 | 3556 | 3556 | 0.04 | 0.22 | 0.17 | ||
哈国咸海流域部分 | 951 | 701 | 858 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 1.00 | |||||
吉尔吉斯斯坦 | 1196 | 1212 | 1146 | 875 | 978 | 978 | 0.73 | 0.81 | 0.85 | ||
塔吉克斯坦 | 724 | 864 | 839 | 418 | 719 | 722 | 0.58 | 0.83 | 0.86 | ||
土库曼斯坦 | 446 | 1484 | 1561 | 450 | 1800 | 1800 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
乌兹别克斯坦 | 3149 | 3778 | 3708 | 2568 | 4223 | 4223 | 0.82 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Tab. 6
Forecast scenarios and parameters of the socio-economic water use system in the Aral Sea Basin
情景参数 | 哈萨克斯坦 | 吉尔吉斯斯坦 | 塔吉克斯坦 | 土库曼斯坦 | 乌兹别克斯坦 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 2030 | 2016 | 2030 | 2016 | 2030 | 2016 | 2030 | 2016 | 2030 | ||||||
人口增长率(‰) | 13 | 7 | 15 | 9 | 22 | 15 | 17 | 10 | 15 | 8 | |||||
GDP增长率(%) | 1.1 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 5.5 | |||||
农作物种植面积增长率(%) | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
滴灌普及率(%) | S1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
S2 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 20 | |||||
S3 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 30 | |||||
S4 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 50 | |||||
S5 | 0 | 70 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 70 | 0 | 70 | |||||
S6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
S7 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 20 | |||||
S8 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 30 | |||||
S9 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 50 | |||||
S10 | 0 | 70 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 70 | 0 | 70 |
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