咸海流域社会经济用水分析与预测

doi:10.11821/dlxb202105016

Abstract

Abstract:

Since 1960, water and land resource development in the Aral Sea Basin has led to a surge in socio-economic water consumption and resulted in about 50% shrinkage of the Aral Sea until 1990, which is also known as the Aral Sea Crisis. However, the spatial and temporal changes in socio-economic water consumption are still unclear. Based on the multi-source acquisition of Aral Sea Basin national/state water resource and socio-economic data during 1960-2016, this paper used the system dynamics model to simulate and analyze the characteristics of the socio-economic and water use changes in the Aral Sea Basin and forecasted the socio-economic water use in 2016-2030 under multi-scenarios. The population and GDP in the Aral Sea Basin increased rapidly, by 267% and 1100% respectively, during the study period. The socio-economic water consumption increased from 41 km³ in 1960 to 91 km³ in 2016. The socio-economic water consumption of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan increased rapidly before the collapse of the Soviet Union, and decreased afterwards. The socio-economic water consumption in Turkmenistan and Tajikistan continued to grow in the past 60 years. The benefits of industrial and agricultural water use in the basin increased significantly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but remained at a relatively low level. The future forecasts show that if the existing socio-economic water use efficiency and cropland continue to increase (S1), the socio-economic water consumption in the Aral Sea Basin will reach 96.2 km³ by 2030. Under the S10 scenario that the drip irrigation penetration rate reaches 70% and the cropland remains unchanged, the socio-economic water consumption will drop to 68.1 km ³, which can effectively alleviate the crisis in the study area.

Key words: Aral Sea Basin, water resources, socio-economic water, system dynamics

LIU Shuang, BAI Jie, LUO Geping, LYU Nana, WU Miao. Analysis and prediction of socio-economic water use in the Aral Sea Basin[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(5): 1257-1273.

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子流域	国家	面积(10⁴km²)	流域占比(%)	州名
锡尔河	吉尔吉斯斯坦	12.5	22.7	巴特肯州、奥什州、贾拉拉巴德州、纳伦州
	乌兹别克斯坦	6.1	11.1	安集延州、纳曼干州、费尔干纳州、塔什干州、锡尔河州、吉扎克州
	塔吉克斯坦	2.5	4.5	粟特州
	哈萨克斯坦	34.0	61.7	南哈萨克斯坦州、克孜勒奥尔达州
阿姆河	塔吉克斯坦	11.7	13.5	国家直辖区、哈特隆州、山地—巴达赫尚自治州
	乌兹别克斯坦	39.8	46.0	卡拉克帕克共和国、花剌子模州、纳沃伊州、布哈拉州、撒马尔罕州、卡什卡河州、苏尔汉河州
	土库曼斯坦	35.1	40.5	达绍古兹州、阿哈尔州、马雷州、列巴普州

数据类型	数据项	数据名称	空间尺度	年份	数据来源/方法
地图		苏联解体前地图	国家/ 州界	1990	苏联社会主义共和国地图集^a
地图		中亚5国行政区划数据	国家/ 州界	2010	世界分国地图
社会经济数据	产值	GDP	国家	1960—1964	依据1965—2013年数据线性趋势外推
				1965—2013	Agricultural Statistical Database of Transition Countries
				2014—2016	世界银行
		农业产值	国家	1960—1964	依据1965—2013年数据线性趋势外推
				1965—2013	Agricultural Statistical Database of Transition Countries
				2014—2016	世界银行
		工业产值	国家	1960—2016	GDP与农业产值之差
	人口	城市人口、农村人口	分州	1960—1979	苏联社会主义共和国统计年鉴
				1980—1990	独联体统计委员会
				1991—2016	中亚5国统计年鉴^b、统计局网站^c
	种植结构	谷物、棉花、饲料、其他作物面积	分州	1960—1987	苏联社会主义共和国统计年鉴^d
				1988—1990	独联体统计委员会^e
				1991—2016	中亚5国统计年鉴^b、统计局网站^c
		果园面积	国家	1960—1987	苏联社会主义共和国统计年鉴^d
				1988—1990	独联体统计委员会^e
				1991—2016	中亚5国统计年鉴^b、统计局网站^c
	牲畜量	牛、羊头数	分州	1960—1987	苏联社会主义共和国统计年鉴^d
				1988—1990	依据1987、1991年数据线性插值
				1991—2016	中亚5国统计年鉴^b、统计局网站^c
水资源数据	用水量	工业、农业、生活用水量	国家	1980—2016	ICWC
		灌溉定额			文献[28,29,30,31]
		灌溉面积	国家	1962、1966—1980	文献[32]
		灌溉面积	国家	1992—2008	ICWC
	水利工程	水库面积、库容			ICWC
	径流量	阿姆河、锡尔河径流量		1960—2016	ICWC
	入湖水量	阿姆河、锡尔河入湖水量		1960—2016	水文站^f

变量	单位	方程
人口	千人	人口=INTEG(人口增长量, 人口初始值)
人口增长量	千人	人口增长量=人口×人口增长率/1000
生活用水量	10⁶ m³	生活用水量=(农村人口×农村居民用水定额+城市人口×城市居民用水定额)/1000
工业产值	10⁶ 美元	工业产值=INTEG(工业产值增长量, 工业产值初始值)
工业用水量	10⁶ m³	工业用水量=工业产值×单位工业产值耗水量/1000
牲畜头数	千头	牲畜头数=INTEG(牲畜增长量, 牲畜初始值)
畜牧业用水量	10⁶ m³	畜牧业用水量=(牛数量×牛用水定额+羊数量×羊用水定额)/1000
灌溉面积	10³ hm²	灌溉面积=INTEG(灌溉面积增长量, 灌溉面积初始值)
种植业用水量	10⁶ m³	种植业用水量=[(谷物面积+果林面积+其他农作物面积)×灌溉面积比例×灌溉定额+棉花面积×灌溉定额×1.2]/1000
灌溉量	m³	灌溉量=(每公顷灌溉量+供水变化量)×灌溉系数
水库用水量	10⁶ m³	水库用水量=水库面积×蒸发量+水库蓄容量+水库泄洪量
可用水量	10⁶ m³	可用水量=径流量-入湖水量
缺水系数	%	缺水系数=总用水量/供水量×100%

国家	单位工业产值耗水量拟合函数	判定系数
哈萨克斯坦	y = -97.85 ln(x-1959)+428.32	R²= 0.93
吉尔吉斯斯坦	y = -313.6 ln(x-1959)+1269.5	R²= 0.98
塔吉克斯坦	y = -115.1 ln(x-1959)+534.63	R²= 0.92
土库曼斯坦	y = -174.8 ln(x-1959)+792.07	R²= 0.95
乌兹别克斯坦	y = -99.06 ln(x-1959)+412.61	R²= 0.97

国家	种植面积(10³ hm²)			灌溉面积(10³ hm²)			灌溉面积比例
国家	1960	2000	2010	1962	2000	2010	1960	2000	2010
哈萨克斯坦	28561	16195	21438	1145	3556	3556	0.04	0.22	0.17
哈国咸海流域部分	951	701	858				0.80	0.90	1.00
吉尔吉斯斯坦	1196	1212	1146	875	978	978	0.73	0.81	0.85
塔吉克斯坦	724	864	839	418	719	722	0.58	0.83	0.86
土库曼斯坦	446	1484	1561	450	1800	1800	1.00	1.00	1.00
乌兹别克斯坦	3149	3778	3708	2568	4223	4223	0.82	1.00	1.00

Analysis and prediction of socio-economic water use in the Aral Sea Basin

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情景参数		哈萨克斯坦		吉尔吉斯斯坦		塔吉克斯坦		土库曼斯坦		乌兹别克斯坦
情景参数		2016	2030	2016	2030	2016	2030	2016	2030	2016	2030
人口增长率(‰)		13	7	15	9	22	15	17	10	15	8
GDP增长率(%)		1.1	4.4	3.8	3.5	6.9	5.0	6.2	6.2	7.8	5.5
农作物种植面积增长率(%)		0.7	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	1	1	1	1
滴灌普及率(%)	S1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	S2	0	20	0	10	0	10	0	20	0	20
	S3	0	30	0	20	0	20	0	30	0	30
	S4	0	50	0	40	0	40	0	50	0	50
	S5	0	70	0	60	0	60	0	70	0	70
	S6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	S7	0	20	0	10	0	10	0	20	0	20
	S8	0	30	0	20	0	20	0	30	0	30
	S9	0	50	0	40	0	40	0	50	0	50
	S10	0	70	0	60	0	60	0	70	0	70

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