2030—2070年中俄油气资源海运可达性与通航成本演变预估

doi:10.11821/dlxb202105006

Abstract

Abstract:

Due to the rapid development of society and economy, China's demand for energy and mineral resources is increasing day by day. Therefore, China has carried out a lot of energy trade with Russia, a country with adequate resources. Under the background of global warming and the gradual improvement of Arctic navigation, the energy transportation between the ports of the two countries can be completed through the northeast passage, which will be better than the traditional passage in terms of time, cost, and security. In this paper, the weighted average travel time was used to quantify the accessibility from Chinese ports to Russian oil and gas resources from 2030 to 2070 under climate change scenarios, and a shipping cost system was established to calculate the navigation cost. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The accessibility of Chinese ports to Russian oil resources will be better than that to Russian gas resources. (2) The accessibility of Chinese ports to Russian resources will be reduced by 7 hours on average every decade, and the accessibility of Nantong Port to Russian resources will be the best. (3) The navigation cost of Chinese ports will be reduced by $5000 on average every decade, and the cost of the route from Nantong Port will be the lowest. (4) Under the high emission concentration scenario, merchant shipping will cover a wide range in the future. This paper quantified and evaluated the time and cost of energy trade between China and Russia from 2030 to 2070, which provided a theoretical reference for Sino-Russian maritime transportation and energy trade.

Key words: Sino-Russian oil and gas shipping, accessibility, shipping cost, Northeast Passage, Polar Silk Road

ZHANG Tianyuan, HUANG Jixia, WANG Li. Maritime accessibility and navigation cost evolution estimation of Sino-Russian oil and gas resources from 2030 to 2070[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(5): 1122-1135.

Figures/Tables 11

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港口名称	贸易定位	2019年吞吐量(万t)
天津港	集装箱、矿石、煤炭、焦炭、原油及制品、钢材、液化天然气	49220
大连港	集装箱、原油、成品油、粮食、煤炭、散矿、液化天然气	36641
青岛港	集装箱、金属矿石、煤炭、原油、液化天然气	57736
南通港	化肥、粮油、集装箱、散件杂货、液化天然气	33620
舟山港	集装箱、矿石、原油、液化天然气、煤炭	112009
泉州港	集装箱、成品油、原油、煤炭	12726
深圳港	化肥、粮食、钢材、水泥、木材、原油、煤炭、矿石	25785
防城港	铁矿石、煤炭、硫磺、粮食、化肥、液化天然气	10141
北海港	化肥、矿石、煤炭、白糖、粮食、散件杂货、液化天然气	2427
洋浦港	集装箱、原油、煤炭、矿石、液化天然气	5051

中国港口	到海峡和港口的航行时间(h)
中国港口	白令海峡	阿纳德尔	霍尔姆斯克	马加丹	尼古拉耶夫斯克(庙街)	勘察加彼得罗巴浦洛夫斯克	普罗维杰尼亚	瓦尼诺	符拉迪沃斯托克(海参崴)
天津港	237.18	240.69	128.00	185.69	143.88	180.00	236.36	126.75	92.56
大连港	230.73	229.63	116.81	174.50	132.75	168.94	233.81	115.63	68.13
青岛港	220.93	223.06	110.38	168.06	126.25	162.38	215.69	109.13	74.94
南通港	217.74	217.75	105.13	162.75	121.00	157.06	204.97	103.88	69.69
舟山港	220.00	221.88	109.25	166.88	125.13	161.25	207.70	108.00	73.81
泉州港	238.82	252.69	137.25	194.94	153.19	192.00	229.44	136.06	101.88
深圳港	263.11	279.50	164.94	235.81	180.81	218.81	258.54	163.69	129.50
防城港	290.65	310.56	198.25	266.88	214.19	249.88	281.19	197.06	162.88
北海港	286.67	307.44	195.19	263.81	211.06	246.75	273.42	194.00	159.75
洋浦港	282.21	303.75	191.50	260.13	207.38	243.06	268.97	190.25	156.06

资源	资源可达时间(h)
资源	2030年	2040年	2050年	2060年	2070年	下降幅度
石油	493.25	476.00	472.88	457.81	441.23	52.02
天然气	501.88	484.62	481.51	466.44	449.85	52.03

港口	PC6—RCP 8.5		平均情况
港口	石油资源可达时间	天然气资源可达时间	石油资源可达时间	天然气资源可达时间
天津港	15.57	15.93	17.00	17.36
大连港	15.19	15.55	16.63	16.98
青岛港	14.86	15.22	16.29	16.65
南通港	14.67	15.03	16.10	16.46
舟山港	14.80	15.16	16.23	16.59
泉州港	15.77	16.13	17.20	17.56
深圳港	16.89	17.25	18.32	18.68
防城港	18.11	18.47	19.54	19.90
北海港	17.95	18.31	19.38	19.74
洋浦港	17.78	18.14	19.21	19.57

Maritime accessibility and navigation cost evolution estimation of Sino-Russian oil and gas resources from 2030 to 2070

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