基于东北航线的中欧贸易研究

doi:10.11821/dlxb202105005

Abstract

Abstract:

The Northern Sea Route has been increasingly attracting the attention from countries all over the world due to its important strategic status. By calculating the economic costs of shipping among China-EU ports through the Northern Sea Route and China-EU trade complementarity index, this study builds a trade gravity model in stochastic frontier based on the Northern Sea Route, and explores the influencing factors of China’s import from and export trade to 18 European countries, which shows the following: (1) Taking the traffic volume of 12000 TEU for comparison, the economic costs of shipping along the Northern Sea Route are 1.58-2.80 times those based on the traditional passage among China-EU ports. (2) In 2000-2018, the proportion of the China-EU trade complementarity index based on China’s export (CE_ij) greater than 1 accounted for 52.63%, and countries with higher CE_ij included Iceland, Denmark, Norway, France, Sweden and the United Kingdom, while the proportion of the China-EU trade complementarity index based on China’s import (CI_ij) less than 1 accounted for 94.74%, with a declining trend. So, China’s import and export with 18 European countries were less complementary. (3) In terms of trade scale of China’s export to 18 European countries, the economic scale of trade partner countries has a greater influence than that of China, and the economic costs of shipping are significantly negatively correlated with the trade scale based on the Northern Sea Route; in terms of trade scale of China’s import from 18 European countries, the economic scale of trade partner countries has a greater influence than that of China, and the positive correlation relationship between the economic costs of shipping and the trade scale has lower confidence based on the Northern Sea Route. (4) If the Northern Sea Route was taken for the China-EU trade, the trade efficiencies of China’s export to 18 European countries and import from them declined and rose to varying degrees, respectively, which means that the trade efficiency of China’s import and export had large room for improvement. This study can strengthen the research foundation of relationship between China-EU shipping and trade based on the Northern Sea Route, and provide references for China on participating in the construction of the Northern Sea Route, exploiting and utilizing Arctic resources, and reinforcing the trade between China and Europe.

Key words: economic cost of shipping, trade gravity model in stochastic frontier, trade efficiency, Northern Sea Route

WANG Wulin, WANG Chengjin. Research of China-EU trade based on the Northern Sea Route[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(5): 1105-1121.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Economic cost increment of shipping along the Northern Sea Route compared with the Traditional Passage under the traffic volume of 12000 TEU (10000 dollars)

港口	大连	秦皇岛	天津	青岛	连云港	上海	宁波	厦门	深圳	广州	防城港	海口	平均
摩尔曼斯克	394.21	400.88	402.77	397.15	400.65	404.66	409.13	456.25	491.11	492.18	523.87	513.37	440.52
圣彼得堡	620.63	630.71	632.60	626.98	630.48	634.49	638.96	686.08	720.94	722.01	753.70	743.20	670.07
奥斯陆	598.18	604.85	606.74	601.11	604.62	608.63	613.10	660.22	695.08	696.15	727.84	717.34	644.49
哥德堡	598.69	602.51	604.40	598.78	602.28	606.30	610.76	657.88	692.74	693.82	725.50	715.00	642.39
赫尔辛基	636.81	642.71	644.60	638.98	642.48	646.49	650.96	698.08	732.94	734.01	765.70	755.20	682.41
塔林	635.82	642.35	644.24	638.61	642.12	646.13	650.60	697.72	732.58	733.65	765.34	754.84	682.00
里加	625.85	632.37	634.27	628.64	632.15	636.16	640.63	687.75	722.60	723.68	755.37	744.87	672.03
克莱佩达	618.96	625.49	627.38	621.75	625.26	629.27	633.74	680.86	715.72	716.79	748.48	737.98	665.14
格但斯克	619.68	626.35	628.24	622.62	626.12	630.13	634.60	681.72	716.58	717.65	749.34	738.84	665.99
汉堡	612.51	619.18	621.07	615.44	618.95	622.96	627.43	674.55	709.41	710.48	742.17	731.67	658.82
哥本哈根	607.56	614.08	615.97	610.35	613.85	617.87	622.33	669.45	704.31	705.38	737.07	726.57	653.73
鹿特丹	625.16	631.83	633.72	628.09	631.60	635.61	640.08	687.20	722.06	723.13	754.82	744.32	671.47
安特卫普	631.62	638.29	640.18	634.56	638.06	642.07	646.54	693.66	728.52	729.59	761.28	750.78	677.93
勒阿弗尔	648.21	654.88	656.77	651.15	654.65	658.66	663.13	710.25	745.11	746.18	777.87	767.37	694.52
毕尔巴鄂	701.53	708.05	709.94	704.32	707.82	711.84	716.30	763.42	798.28	799.36	831.05	820.54	747.70
里斯本	745.64	752.31	754.21	748.58	752.09	756.10	760.56	807.68	842.54	843.62	875.31	864.80	791.95
南安普顿	650.13	656.66	658.55	652.93	656.43	660.44	664.91	712.03	746.89	747.96	779.65	769.15	696.31
都柏林	641.15	647.67	649.57	643.94	647.45	651.46	655.93	703.05	737.90	738.98	770.67	760.17	687.33
雷克雅未克	605.66	612.33	614.23	608.60	612.11	616.12	620.59	667.71	702.56	703.64	735.33	724.83	651.98
平均	622.00	628.60	630.50	624.87	628.38	632.39	636.86	683.98	718.83	719.91	751.60	741.10	——

Tab. 3

Fig. 2

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Regression result of trade gravity model in stochastic frontier based on the Northern Sea Route

因变量lnEX_ijt	系数	因变量lnIM_ijt	系数
常数项	-7.15^***	常数项	-63.38^*
lnGDP_it	0.62^*	lnGDP_it	0.28^***
lnGDP_jt	0.98^***	lnGDP_jt	0.87^***
lnEC_ij	-1.90^*	lnEC_ij	7.72
lnCE_ij	-0.06	lnCI_ij	0.03
B_ij	0.31	B_ij	0.39^*
FTA_ij	-0.16	FTA_ij	-0.48^**
μ	0.00	μ	0.00
η	-0.01	η	0.04
γ	0.91	γ	0.95
$σ μ 2$	0.69	$σ μ 2$	1.61
$σ υ 2$	0.07	$σ υ 2$	0.08
对数似然值	-110.50	对数似然值	-95.93
LR	399.37	LR	467.69

Tab. 5

Fig. 3

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航线	YS	SS	HN或 HS	BN	DN_ij或 DS_ij	RN_ij或 RS_ij	ON_ij或 OS_ij	PN_ij或 PS_ij	MN_ij或 MS_ij	XN_ij或 XS_ij	WN_ij或 WS_ij	IN_ij或 IS_ij
东北航线	-	-	72	180	9.6	7.2	0.0441	1.44	0.72	0.1728	0.09	0.1749
传统航线	50	7	28	-	1.11	4	0.0259	0.463	0.2315	0.0756	0.0556	0.1944

变量类型	变量	观测数量	最小值	最大值	均值	标准差
因变量	lnEX_ij_t	342	16.68	25.08	22.02	1.89
因变量	lnIM_ijt	342	14.84	25.39	21.19	2.30
影响因素	lnGDP_it	342	27.82	30.24	29.15	0.82
	lnGDP_jt	342	22.46	29.00	26.38	1.68
	lnEC_ij	342	9.05	9.21	9.12	0.04
	lnCE_ijt	342	-0.32	0.35	0.0028	0.13
	lnCI_ijt	342	-0.82	0.29	-0.2981	0.18

变量	LLC检验统计量	结论
lnEX_ijt	-8.9735	平稳
lnIM_ijt	-7.4359	平稳
lnGDP_it	-6.4064	平稳
lnGDP_jt	-7.8754	平稳
lnCE_ijt	-3.5680	平稳
lnCI_ijt	-4.8176	平稳
lnEX_ijt、lnGDP_it、lnGDP_jt、lnCE_ijt协整检验	T统计量: -4.9656	存在协整关系
lnIMX_ijt、lnGDP_it、lnGDP_jt、lnCI_ijt协整检验	T统计量: -4.6801	存在协整关系

Research of China-EU trade based on the Northern Sea Route

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