基于新闻大数据的北极地区地缘关系研究

doi:10.11821/dlxb202105004

Abstract

Abstract:

Global warming has caused a shrinkage of the Arctic sea ice cover. It endangered the environment, but made the Arctic channel possible. Therefore, the strategic position of the Arctic has been improved significantly. As a near-Arctic country, China has formulated relevant Arctic policies, which will be directly affected by the changes in the international relations between the eight Arctic countries (region). A comprehensive and real-time analysis on the variation characteristics of the Arctic geographical relationship is required in China, which can provide instructions for formulating political, economic and diplomatic countermeasures in the Arctic. Massive global real-time open databases, such as GDELT (The Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone) global news event database, provide news data from major media in various countries. And this makes it possible to monitor the geographical relationship in real time. Based on the GDELT database and the method of labeled-LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation), this paper explored the key elements in social development of eight Arctic countries (region) over the past seven years. This paper also constructed the national interaction network, and identified the evolution pattern of the relations between the Arctic countries. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) Arctic news focused on climate change and ice sheet melting, which had become the main driving factor for the change of international relations in the Arctic; (2) There was a strong correlation between the number of ice sheet melting news pieces and the sea ice area; (3) With the melting of the ice sheet, the social, economic and military activities in the Arctic were booming, and the competition for dominance was becoming increasingly fierce. Generally, a pattern dominated by Russia and Canada was formed.

Key words: Arctic, geographical relationship, spatiotemporal data mining, topic model, interactive network, big data

LI Meng, YUAN Wen, YUAN Wu, NIU Fangqu, LI Hanqin, HU Duanmu. Big data analysis on geographical relationship of the Arctic based on news reports[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(5): 1090-1104.

Figures/Tables 15

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事件类型
发表公开声明	上诉	表示合作意向	咨询	进行外交合作
需求	提供援助	产出	调查	进行物质合作
不被通过	拒绝	威胁	抗议	展示武力姿态
减少关系	胁迫	攻击	战斗	使用非常规的处理方式

年份	动物保护	航运交通	气候变化	经济活动	军事活动	区域治理	资源开发	冰盖融化
2013	324	398	766	625	1803	712	773	499
2014	671	575	977	1336	5422	1120	953	580
2015	956	2381	1625	1045	3616	1342	1434	1199
2016	1447	3915	1377	1195	3923	1476	1028	1716
2017	1029	1603	1326	832	4080	1460	943	1109
2018	1280	1193	2147	933	3244	1270	930	1338
2019	1589	1537	3591	991	4605	3162	1220	1940

事件	top1	top 2	top 3	top 4	top 5	top 6	top 7	top 8
冰盖融化	ice	climate	glacier	sheet	cap	record	researcher	melting
动物保护	bear	polar	wildlife	climate	animal	ice	conservation	study
航运交通	ship	cruise	ice	polar	route	coast	expedition	Norwegian
区域治理	policy	development	region	oil	country	paper	cooperation	state
气候变化	climate	temperature	cold	weather	record	degree	polar	wind
资源开发	energy	oil	fuel	drilling	fossil	gas	company	climate
经济活动	oil	market	price	natural	industry	company	car	gas
军事活动	military	defense	force	state	missile	Nordic	war	logistics

	动物保护	航运交通	气候变化	经济活动	军事活动	区域治理	资源开发	冰盖融化
动物保护	1	0.621688	0.774918	0.323984	0.398627	0.758592	0.443681	0.970136
航运交通	0.621688	1	0.11132	0.37161	0.128924	0.205274	0.459066	0.668356
气候变化	0.774918	0.11132	1	0.042325	0.284297	0.924086	0.491428	0.797022
经济活动	0.323984	0.37161	0.042325	1	0.815929	0.150709	0.353416	0.206339
军事活动	0.398627	0.128924	0.284297	0.815929	1	0.462412	0.333612	0.261695
区域治理	0.758592	0.205274	0.924086	0.150709	0.462412	1	0.500057	0.794655
资源开发	0.443681	0.459066	0.491428	0.353416	0.333612	0.500057	1	0.513771
冰盖融化	0.970136	0.668356	0.797022	0.206339	0.261695	0.794655	0.513771	1

交互	非常消极	消极	中性	积极	交互	非常消极	消极	中性	积极	非常积极
加拿大—俄罗斯	1	125	2351	21	芬兰—瑞典	0	10	893	10	0
挪威—俄罗斯	0	54	2107	20	加拿大—瑞典	0	18	857	1	0
丹麦—格陵兰岛	0	10	1848	7	格陵兰岛—挪威	0	4	818	19	1
加拿大—格陵兰岛	1	27	1568	18	冰岛—俄罗斯	0	5	815	12	0
格陵兰岛—俄罗斯	0	41	1485	11	丹麦—瑞典	0	10	754	12	0
丹麦—俄罗斯	0	9	1435	8	格陵兰岛—冰岛	1	25	686	20	0
加拿大—挪威	0	12	1394	17	加拿大—芬兰	0	45	647	8	2
芬兰—俄罗斯	0	72	1301	4	加拿大—冰岛	1	8	632	16	0
挪威—瑞典	0	18	1136	14	丹麦—芬兰	0	4	637	8	1
俄罗斯—瑞典	0	29	1046	3	丹麦—冰岛	0	3	624	12	0
丹麦—挪威	0	7	957	19	芬兰—冰岛	0	3	523	14	0
加拿大—丹麦	0	5	953	10	冰岛—瑞典	0	7	487	8	0
冰岛—挪威	0	7	916	28	格陵兰岛—瑞典	2	15	412	0	0
芬兰—挪威	1	23	903	16	芬兰—格陵兰岛	0	8	380	1	0

Big data analysis on geographical relationship of the Arctic based on news reports

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