北极能源开发的地缘要素驱动机制

doi:10.11821/dlxb202105003

Abstract

Abstract:

The accelerating global warming enhanced the Arctic sea ice melting, which made it possible to explore energy resources in the Arctic region. This study firstly analyzed the energy trade structure in the pan-Arctic countries, covering Arctic countries and the observer countries. Secondly, it uses correlation analysis to extract the direct geopolitical factors including energy dependence, energy importance, energy security, and indirect geopolitical factors including national power (military power and foreign investment influence), climate and environmental protection and social inclusive development, which might influence the willingness of the pan-Arctic countries to exploit the Arctic energy. Finally, we apply fuzzy-set qualitative analysis (fs/QCA) to examine the driving mechanisms of these geopolitical factors on the willingness to exploit the Arctic energy. The results showed that: (1) Arctic countries mainly serve as energy exporter while observer countries mainly serve as energy importer. The amount of China's energy imported from Arctic counties is small at current stage, but with a huge potential. (2) Energy dependence, energy importance, national power and social inclusive development are significantly correlated with the willingness on Arctic energy exploitation, acting as key geopolitical factors. (3) Key geopolitical factors drive or impede the willingness on Arctic energy exploitation through three major pathways, among which, national power together with energy dependence or energy importance behave as the major driving forces for most of the pan-Arctic countries, large countries in particular, such as Russia, USA, China and India. The second pathway is driven by national power but restricted by social inclusive development, including most European countries and Canada. The third pathway is mainly driven by energy importance while restricted by social inclusive development, mainly including Norway. Finally, this study provided coping strategies and suggestions on China's participating Arctic energy exploitation based on the energy trade structure and the driving mechanisms.

Key words: Arctic, energy, geopolitical factor, driving mechanism, fs/QCA

WANG Li, WU Liang, LI Yanpeng, ZHANG Dan, YANG Linsheng. The geopolitical driving forces and mechanism on Arctic energy exploitation[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(5): 1078-1089.

Figures/Tables 6

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Tab. 2

References 39

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	依赖性	重要性	安全性	军事力量	FDI	气候表现	环保指数	包容度
依赖性	1
重要性	0.684^***	1
安全性	-0.536^***	-0.310^*	1
军事力量	0.564^***	0.283	-0.489^**	1
FDI	0.105	-0.108	0.155	0.421^**	1
气候表现	-0.341^*	-0.213	0.137	-0.276	-0.504^***	1
环保指数	-0.575^***	-0.301	0.340^*	0.320^*	-0.024	0.254	1
包容度	-0.697^***	-0.458^**	-0.431^**	-0.574^***	-0.026	0.398^**	-0.652^***	1
开发积极性	0.598^***	0.507^***	-0.155	0.531^**	0.383^**	-0.196	-0.075	-0.330^*

路径	解	覆盖度	一致性	国家
1	~包容性∗军事力量∗重要性	0.511	0.828	俄罗斯、波兰、中国、印度、美国
2	~包容性∗军事力量∗依赖性	0.447	0.778	韩国、意大利、中国、印度、日本
3	包容性∗FDI∗军事力量∗~依赖性	0.404	0.760	加拿大、英国
4	包容性∗FDI∗军事力量∗~重要性	0.468	0.846	德国、法国、英国
5	包容性∗~FDI∗重要性∗~军事力量∗~依赖性	0.276	0.765	挪威、瑞典

The geopolitical driving forces and mechanism on Arctic energy exploitation

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