东北三省城镇收缩的特征及机制与响应

doi:10.11821/dlxb202104001

Abstract

Abstract:

Understanding the population loss and economic decline in the three provinces of Northeast China from a perspective of urban shrinkage is of great significance to deepening the transformation theory of China's old industrial bases. The main results can be summarized as follows. Since 2000, obvious differences in urban growth and shrinkage have occurred in Northeast China. Some 42.85% of cities showed an urban shrinkage. The manufacturing and service industries in cities of urban growth (growing cities) are increasingly advanced, while the development of new pattern industries and industrial structure upgrading are slow in cities of urban shrinkage (shrinking cities) and the economic competitiveness of these shrinking cities is weakening. There is a close spatial correlation between growing and shrinking cities. On the one hand, growing cities continuously absorb the production factors such as population and capital of shrinking cities through the agglomeration effect, and on the other hand, they increase the pressure of economic transformation of shrinking cities through the spatial transfer of traditional industries. The shrinkage degree varies from high to low from north to south, and shows a trend of 'first strengthening, then weakening' from east to west. The processing cities have the highest shrinkage degree, followed by industrial and mining cities, and the tourism and port cities have a relatively low shrinkage degree. The factors influencing urban shrinkage include the development lag of public service facilities, the misalignment of industrial development and market demand, the low correlation degree of industrial structure, the aging of population structure, and the agglomeration effect of regional central places, their intensity of action enhancing in turn. According to the economic long wave theory and local circumstances, Northeast China will experience a long-term urban shrinkage in the future. It should be a strategic choice to develop this region to actively adapt to the shrinkage, and optimize and reorganize population and economic factors through smart urban shrinkage.

Key words: urban shrinkage, characteristics, mechanism, response, Northeast China

MA Zuopeng, LI Chenggu, ZHANG Pingyu. Characteristics, mechanism and response of urban shrinkage in the three provinces of Northeast China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(4): 767-780.

Figures/Tables 7

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	收缩城镇	加工型	工矿型	旅游型	口岸型
常数	1.043	2.301	1.173	1.305	0.941
人均公共财政收入	0.007	-0.247	-0.853^**	-0.215	-0.234
人均固定资产投资	0.316^*	-0.220	-0.439	-0.515	-0.356
工业化水平	-0.054^*	-0.174	-0.531^**	0.094	-0.052
工业集约化水平	0.114^*	0.302	0.277^**	-0.061	-0.031
工业绿色化水平	-0.093^*	0.135^*	-0.476^**	0.006	0.024
服务业发展规模	0.361^**	0.547	0.608^*	-0.631	0.514
万人在校生	0.711^***	0.324	0.279^**	0.169	0.231
万人医疗床位	-1.124^**	-0.976	-1.532	-2.041^*	-1.032
交通优势度	0.210^**	1.498^***	0.348	-1.312^*	-1.272
老年人口比例	-0.456^*	-0.573^*	-0.379^**	-1.231	-0.54
R²	0.638	0.579	0.524	0.507	0.432
调整R²	0.577	0.566	0.523	0.493	0.407
F统计	10.394	9.725	10.061	8.301	5.430

Characteristics, mechanism and response of urban shrinkage in the three provinces of Northeast China

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