中国生态过渡带分布的空间识别及情景模拟

doi:10.11821/dlxb202103010

Abstract

Abstract:

Explicitly identifying the ecotone distribution and scenario change is of important significance to understand the response of ecosystem to climatic change. In this paper, a spatial identification method was developed to analyze the ecotone distribution in terms of the improved Holdridge life zone (iHLZ) model. Based on the climatic observation data of 782 weather stations of China in the T0 (1981-2010) period, and the climatic scenario data of IPCC CMIP5 RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in T1 (2011-2040), T2 (2041-2070) and T3 (2071-2100), the ecotones distribution and scenarios in China were simulated in the four periods. Moreover, a spatial shift trend model of mean center was introduced to quantitatively calculate the shift direction and distance of each ecotone type during the periods from T0 to T3. The simulated results show that there are 41 ecotone types in China, accounting for 18% of the total land area of China. The ecotones of cold temperate grassland / humid forest and warm temperate arid forest (564238.5 km²), cold temperate humid forest and warm temperate arid / humid forest (566549.75 km²), and northern humid / humid forest and cold temperate humid forest (525750.25 km²) are the main ecotone types, accounting for 35% of the total area of ecotones in China. Between T0 and T3, the area in the ecotone of cold temperate desert shrub and warm temperate desert shrub / thorn steppe will increase at a rate of 4% per decade, which is up by 3604.2, 10063.1 and 17242 km² per decade under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The cold ecotones will transform to the warm humid ecotones in the future. The average shift distance of mean center in the ecotone of north wet forest and cold temperate desert shrub / thorn grassland will be generally larger than that of other ecotones, whose mean center will move to the northeast, and the shift distance will be more than 150 km between T0 and T3. In addition, with a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation, the ecotones in northern China will show a shifting northward trend, while the ecotones in southern China will decrease gradually, and their mean center move to the high-altitude areas. The effects of climate change on ecotones will show an increasing trend in China, especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Key words: ecotone, mean center, spatial identification method, scenario simulation, China

FAN Zemeng. Spatial identification and scenario simulation of ecotone distribution in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(3): 626-644.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Identification criteria of ecotones

编码	BTZ类型	MAB(℃)	TAP(mm)	PER
1	风荒漠与冰雪过渡带	> 0.375	< 125	< 0.25
2	风荒漠—冰缘与冰雪过渡带	< 0.75	> 125	> 0.25
3	风荒漠—冻荒漠与冰缘过渡带	> 0.75	< 125	< 0.50
4	冰缘与冰雪过渡带	> 0.75	< 250	< 0.25
5	冻荒漠—冰缘与高寒草原过渡带	< 1.50	> 125	> 0.50
6	冰缘—冰雪与高寒草甸过渡带	< 1.50	> 250	> 0.25
7	冻荒漠—高寒荒漠/草原过渡带	> 1.50	< 125	< 1.00
8	冰缘—高寒草原/草甸过渡带	> 1.50	< 250	< 0.50
9	冰雪—高寒草甸与苔原过渡带	> 1.50	< 500	< 0.25
10	高寒荒漠/草原与干旱灌丛过渡带	< 3.00	> 125	> 1.00
11	高寒草原/草甸与北方湿润森林过渡带	< 3.00	> 250	> 0.50
12	高寒草甸/苔原与北方潮湿森林过渡带	< 3.00	> 500	> 0.25
13	高寒荒漠与北方荒漠/干旱灌丛过渡带	> 3.00	< 125	< 2.00
14	高寒草原与北方干旱灌丛/湿润森林过渡带	> 3.00	< 250	< 1.00
15	高寒草甸与北方湿润/潮湿森林过渡带	> 3.00	< 500	< 0.50
16	北方潮湿/雨林与苔原过渡带	> 3.00	< 1000	< 0.25
17	北方荒漠/灌丛与冷温带荒漠灌丛过渡带	< 6.00	> 125	> 2.00
18	北方干旱灌丛/湿润森林与冷温带草原过渡带	< 6.00	> 250	> 1.00
19	北方湿润/潮湿森林与冷温带湿润森林过渡带	< 6.00	> 500	> 0.50
20	北方潮湿/雨林与冷温带潮湿森林过渡带	< 6.00	> 1000	> 0.25
21	北方荒漠与冷温带荒漠/灌丛过渡带	> 6.00	< 125	< 4.00
22	北方干旱灌丛与冷温带荒漠灌丛/草原过渡带	> 6.00	< 250	< 2.00
23	北方湿润森林与冷温带草原/湿润森林过渡带	> 6.00	< 500	< 1.00
24	北方潮湿森林与冷温带湿润/潮湿森林过渡带	> 6.00	< 1000	< 0.50
25	北方雨林与冷温带潮湿森林/雨林过渡带	> 6.00	< 2000	< 0.25
26	冷温带荒漠/灌丛与暖温带荒漠灌丛过渡带	< 12.00	> 125	> 4.00
27	冷温带荒漠灌丛/草原与暖温带有刺草原过渡带	< 12.00	> 250	> 2.00
28	冷温带草原/湿润森林与暖温带干旱森林过渡带	< 12.00	> 500	> 1.00
29	冷温带湿润/潮湿森林与暖温带湿润森林过渡带	< 12.00	> 1000	> 0.50
30	冷温带潮湿森林/雨林与暖温带潮湿森林过渡带	< 12.00	> 2000	> 0.25
31	冷温带荒漠与暖温带荒漠/灌丛过渡带	> 12.00	< 125	< 8.00
32	冷温带荒漠灌丛与暖温带荒漠灌丛/有刺草原过渡带	> 12.00	< 250	< 4.00
33	冷温带草原与暖温带有刺草原/干旱森林过渡带	> 12.00	< 500	< 2.00
34	冷温带湿润森林与暖温带干旱/湿润森林过渡带	> 12.00	< 1000	< 1.00
35	冷温带潮湿森林与暖温带湿润/潮湿森林过渡带	> 12.00	< 2000	< 0.50
36	冷温带雨林与暖温带潮湿森林/雨林过渡带	> 12.00	< 4000	< 0.25
37	亚热带荒漠/灌丛与热带荒漠灌丛过渡带	< 24.00	> 125	> 8.00
38	亚热带灌丛/有刺草原与热带有刺疏林过渡带	< 24.00	> 250	> 4.00
39	亚热带有刺疏林/干旱森林与热带很干森林过渡带	< 24.00	> 500	> 2.00
40	亚热带干旱/湿润森林与热带干旱森林过渡带	< 24.00	> 1000	> 1.00
41	亚热带湿润/潮湿森林与热带湿润森林过渡带	< 24.00	> 2000	> 0.50
42	亚热带潮湿森林/雨林与热带潮湿森林过渡带	< 24.00	> 4000	> 0.25
43	亚热带荒漠与热带荒漠/灌丛过渡带	> 24.00	< 125	< 16.00
44	亚热带荒漠灌丛与热带荒漠灌丛/有刺疏林过渡带	> 24.00	< 250	< 8.00
45	亚热带有刺疏林与热带有刺疏林/很干森林过渡带	> 24.00	< 500	< 4.00
46	亚热带干旱森林与热带很干/干旱森林过渡带	> 24.00	< 1000	< 2.00
47	亚热带湿润森林与热带干旱/湿润森林过渡带	> 24.00	< 2000	< 1.00
48	亚热带潮湿森林与热带湿润/潮湿森林过渡带	> 24.00	< 4000	< 0.50
49	亚热带雨林与热带潮湿/雨林过渡带	> 24.00	< 8000	< 0.25

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Tab. 2

Area of ecotones under the three scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (km2)

编码	T0	RCP 2.6			RCP 4.5			RCP 8.5
编码	T0	T1	T2	T3	T1	T2	T3	T1	T2	T3
1	0	18	11	28	33	20	16	19	12	4
2	0	331	319	186	359	234	60	358	44	8
3	0	112	61	44	99	82	32	106	36	6
4	4133	2523	1929	2252	2249	1362	1255	2311	1251	177
5	69	1733	1621	1066	2043	1487	444	1937	235	21
6	67207	10165	5417	5630	9968	2705	2324	9085	2328	1271
7	0	496	569	85	494	503	38	462	33	0
8	21710	11833	8575	10436	11382	6306	5947	10986	6176	1778
9	50942	61529	54199	57642	56865	39831	35050	58659	30123	3972
10	6226	8108	7560	4602	7505	7651	3534	6888	1899	51
11	42813	72193	62699	63182	77481	51897	33686	74401	29872	9700
12	51665	60798	74726	76468	56264	81194	91293	57836	86511	64255
13	3698	2938	2566	1301	3330	2810	891	3097	568	9
14	33304	43970	35350	28835	44576	26912	22438	39653	26194	20468
15	53039	104570	121523	125735	105814	129326	145756	109206	147273	124791
16	20394	10	16	14	14	1	27	14	15	414
17	14482	16502	13437	13794	17491	11940	11067	15377	10001	3115
18	31289	45109	46366	43487	39986	50052	53911	40208	57198	32904
19	52387	135375	135381	167223	152001	164383	160644	151677	152096	182743
20	5537	0	0	0	0	21	21	0	15	14
21	13194	22047	18090	14887	20233	9779	5739	17244	4532	2311
22	63353	42135	42346	47085	45189	44690	46499	47416	45579	28390
23	148436	108981	102719	96813	104815	91829	77895	106336	86948	58513
24	21484	2006	4495	2412	1909	2212	5104	1702	1580	9054
25	186	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	130080	145120	136429	143718	143769	105773	102151	150962	92610	23052
27	49453	107082	126616	131613	116791	144363	139982	120822	144384	119965
28	206067	247976	236233	227930	215464	268572	267315	215277	230023	200860
29	37587	5908	7822	2878	204	1386	3071	133	315	1645
30	17	43	32	32	39	11	3	41	3	0
31	17491	107649	119337	105099	92396	114786	145654	104675	152720	101876
32	3540	21099	32599	39582	23460	70216	104171	26351	115379	175955
33	98325	19043	29874	32358	27524	50384	46884	28507	102668	167583
34	221686	226182	188416	212098	239735	163580	154365	225159	132460	132566
35	15214	6769	3878	4046	6482	2097	1362	6260	1291	16
37	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	884
38	13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
39	62	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
40	65438	40014	39494	36285	48298	89004	109617	66368	237548	515481
41	25166	364	3349	1005	3	2304	5937	0	2991	7498
47	18348	39697	55697	54925	41424	85862	134610	42064	157828	317434

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Fig. 5

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编码	T0~T1		T1~T2		T2~T3
编码	偏移距离	偏移方向	偏移距离	偏移方向	偏移距离	偏移方向
1			575.89	东南	158.44	西
2			36.46	北	364.35	东南
3			524.49	西北	440.09	东南
4	313.37	西	45.65	西北	33.72	西
5	163.57	东北	204.43	西北	80.98	东南
6	75.23	南	111.08	西北	34.18	西南
7			62.35	东	183.79	西北
8	344.76	西	9.82	东北	34.16	南
9	65.01	北	66.15	西	3.16	东北
10	114.76	西北	102.64	西北	80.54	西北
11	133.99	南	90.37	西北	25.27	南
12	265.35	东北	75.64	西	10.24	东
13	221.6	西	33.91	西北	23.62	西
14	226.46	西南	72.05	西北	153.18	西北
15	171.44	东南	110.42	西	36.23	东南
16	2827.93	东北	251.73	西南	251.45	东北
17	289.66	西南	134.86	西	218.66	西
18	447.75	南	64.87	西南	127.8	北
19	119.67	东南	150.92	西南	197.31	南
21	86.68	东南	56.18	西南	97.37	西南
22	981.11	西南	167.08	西南	30.74	东北
23	533.87	西南	66.24	西	309.09	东北
24	2268.19	东北	843.93	西南	1032.88	东北
26	54.23	西南	18.27	西	9.99	东南
27	101.5	东北	38.75	西北	167.87	东
28	216.51	东北	101.74	东北	72.23	东北
29	160.22	西	20.78	西	46.98	北
30	766.46	东南	13.12	南	0
31	259.19	东南	95.16	东南	44.37	西北
32	839.21	北	415.56	东南	112.89	西北
33	294.23	西南	48.46	西北	21.06	东南
34	220.07	西南	52.5	北	19.88	西北
35	378.48	东	35.47	东南	9.45	东南
40	488.65	西北	48.12	东北	381.42	南
41	641.45	东北	216.49	东北	169.64	东北
47	29.03	西北	61.2	北	2.36	南

编码	T0~T1		T1~T2		T2~T3
编码	偏移距离	偏移方向	偏移距离	偏移方向	偏移距离	偏移方向
1			293.08	东	123.63	南
2			36.08	东北	279.36	东南
3			473.97	西北	494.86	东南
4	320.13	西	52.11	西北	57.99	西
5	170.54	东	203.39	西北	70.2	东南
6	87.43	南	237.81	西	161.8	西北
7			120.74	西北	104.33	南
8	321.52	西	28.5	北	112.16	西北
9	64.65	北	115.89	西北	71.13	西北
10	170.76	西北	119.2	西北	33.71	西
11	131.38	南	114.57	西北	101.63	西北
12	268.45	东北	149.39	西	95.55	西
13	226.55	西	28.13	北	54.75	西
14	217.42	西南	248.67	西	175.08	西北
15	213.48	东南	120.03	西北	119.29	西
16	2827.64	东北	2225.08	西南	60.36	南
17	384.24	西	372.57	西	72.11	西南
18	325.97	西南	234.82	南	52.36	南
19	174.34	南	432.43	西南	308.11	西南
20					0.28	东北
21	69.1	南	377.76	西南	412.93	西南
22	919.58	西南	332.35	西南	150.7	西南
23	445.81	西南	260.71	西南	155.94	西南
24	2650.17	东北	179.94	西南	1561.57	西南
26	63.85	西	82.43	西	57.92	西南
27	306.92	东	146.99	西北	140.7	西北
28	320.71	东北	191.07	东北	24.79	西北
29	153.5	西北	214.07	西	103.68	西
30	768.54	东南	19.08	北	24.07	北
31	235.48	东南	346.37	东	67.52	东南
32	743.09	北	664.54	东南	20.01	北
33	274.56	西南	99.58	西北	89.56	西北
34	322.29	西南	137.42	东北	76.99	东北
35	384.46	东	105.23	东南	94.5	东南
40	556.84	西	253.32	东北	108.94	东北
41	1017.64	东北	58.91	东南	7.72	东北
47	34.71	西北	136.54	东北	74.47	北

编码	T0~T1		T1~T2		T2~T3
编码	偏移距离	偏移方向	偏移距离	偏移方向	偏移距离	偏移方向
1			122.27	东南	333.54	西
2			930.5	东南	285.74	东南
3			297.21	东南	81.38	东
4	326.75	西	136.14	西北	64.26	南
5	173.46	东	246.25	东南	840.32	东南
6	86.9	南	445.58	西北	133.04	西北
7			295.09	东南
8	333.53	西	147.15	西北	78.14	西
9	67.49	北	185.05	西北	150.35	西北
10	189.19	西北	76.72	西	74.34	南
11	137.95	南	239.1	西北	265.65	西北
12	280.61	东北	257.8	西	290.64	西
13	224.04	西	79.49	西南	50.82	西北
14	259.6	西南	386.82	西北	113.5	西北
15	196.98	东南	202.81	西北	299.93	西北
16	2827.64	东北	2282.75	西南	206.86	南
17	479.18	西	346.49	西南	49.96	西
18	326.78	西南	349.86	南	428.34	西南
19	231.84	南	727.43	西南	656.35	西
20					1.12	南
21	100.83	南	1140.32	西南	89.01	西北
22	956.6	西南	508.54	西南	719.47	西南
23	389.8	西南	791.86	西南	1331.83	西南
24	2649.15	东北	744.07	西南	1838.76	西南
26	64.76	西	206.18	西	427.11	西
27	289.31	东北	278.89	西北	378.4	西
28	364.48	东北	312.33	东北	176.63	北
29	153.47	西北	267.16	西	138.46	北
30	767.04	东南	39.75	北
31	260.29	东南	388.81	东	189.04	东
32	720.01	北	631	东南	250.86	西北
33	280.88	西南	215.3	西北	137.05	北
34	349.58	西南	165.45	北	953.92	东北
35	401.18	东	232.65	东南	202.82	东南
40	510.16	西	418.01	东北	128.65	东北
41					13.76	西北
47	36.96	西北	233.08	东北	102.5	北

Spatial identification and scenario simulation of ecotone distribution in China

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