生态省建设的碳减排效应研究

doi:10.11821/dlxb202011012

Abstract

Abstract:

To explore the holistic governance of ecological environmental protection, China has started up a pilot project of "Ecological Province" construction since 1999. This is an important measure taken by the Chinese government to improve the ecological environment. Does this project affect carbon emissions? Answering this question can help us learn about the true effects of the "Ecological Province" construction project. Based on the provincial-level panel data from 2000 to 2015 in China, this paper focuses on exploring the effects using the methods of the quasi-natural experiment and counterfactual test. Moreover, this study tries to test the robustness of the effects using the methods of multi-stage DID model, propensity score matching-difference in difference model (PSM-DID model). The results show that: (1) "Ecological Province" construction project has a significant and robust effect on carbon emission reduction. (2) Its mechanism depends on several channels, including impeding the economic growth, protecting ecological environment and adjusting the industrial structure. (3) Nevertheless, there still exist some problems such as the regional disparity of implementing the project, the backward development of ecological industry and the lack of ecological innovation and technological progress. This study can provide a scientific basis for popularizing the experience of "Ecological Province" construction and promoting its effect on carbon emission reduction.

Key words: "Ecological Province" construction, carbon emission reduction, DID model, PSM-DID model, mechanism analysis

WANG Guixin, LI Gang. Effect of "Ecological Province" construction oncarbon emission reduction in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(11): 2431-2442.

Figures/Tables 10

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References 24

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变量名称	表示符号	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
碳排放量	lnCarbon	5.3227	0.6767	3.9759	6.6450
交互项	Dummy×Treat	0.2813	0.4514	0.0000	1.0000
经济规模	lnGDP	9.1599	0.8661	7.4905	11.1579
森林覆盖率	Forest	0.3353	0.1383	0.0754	0.6001
城市化率	Urban	0.4279	0.0914	0.2622	0.6652
产业结构	Rindustry	0.8216	0.1649	0.5985	1.1689
技术进步率	lnA	0.5535	0.1775	0.1542	0.9202
人口密度	lnrpeople	5.7627	0.4532	5.1200	6.6600

变量	模型1	模型2
交互项	-0.0704	-0.0720
	(-2.13)^**	(-1.90)^*
常数项	4.6077	4.6567
	(140.13)^***	(1.45)
控制变量	No	Yes
个体固定效应	Yes	Yes
时间固定效应	Yes	Yes
拟合系数R²	0.9615	0.9729
统计量F	162.49	160.06
组别	8	8
观测量	128	128

变量	2002年	2003年	2004年
交互项	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500
	(0.10)	(0.10)	(0.10)
常数项	6.7352	6.7352	6.7352
	(0.98)	(0.98)	(0.98)
控制变量	Yes	Yes	Yes
个体固定效应	Yes	Yes	Yes
时间固定效应	Yes	Yes	Yes
拟合系数R²	0.9118	0.9118	0.9118
统计量F	31.02	31.02	31.02
组别	8	8	8
观测量	56	56	56

变量	模型1	模型2
交互项	-0.0703	-0.0332
	(-1.58)	（-0.58）
常数项	4.8147	-7.2681
	(109.11)^***	(-2.42)^**
控制变量	No	Yes
个体固定效应	Yes	Yes
时间固定效应	Yes	Yes
拟合系数R²	0.9340	0.9575
统计量F	92.00	100.25
组别	8	8
观测量	128	128

变量	表示符号	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
碳排放量	lnCarbon	5.0902	0.8472	2.1633	6.7360
交互项	Dummy×Treat	0.3621	0.4811	0.0000	1.0000
经济规模	lnGDP	8.8572	1.1104	5.5747	11.1956
森林覆盖率	Forest	0.3122	0.1769	0.0294	0.6595
城市化率	Urban	0.4906	0.1546	0.2330	0.8961
产业结构	Rindustry	0.9708	0.4605	0.4971	4.0355
技术进步率	lnA	0.6550	0.2813	0.0533	1.6774
人口密度	lnrpeople	8.8572	1.1104	5.5747	11.1956

Effect of "Ecological Province" construction oncarbon emission reduction in China

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变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4
Dummy×Treat	-0.0350	-0.0405	-0.0422	-0.0545
	(-1.77)^*	(-1.78)^*	(-1.85)^*	(-2.43)^**
Forest		-2.2825	-2.3733	-1.6928
		(-7.32)^***	(-7.43)^***	(-5.09)^***
Urban		1.6638	1.6614	1.2702
		(5.14)^***	(5.14)^***	(3.92)^***
Rindustry			0.2763	-0.1046
			(1.29)	(-2.36)^**
lnA				-0.2275
				(-4.17)^***
lnGDP		0.6264	0.6434	0.5876
		(8.42)^***	(8.52)^***	(7.44)^***
lnrpeople		-0.4263	-0.4347	-0.0379
		(-3.44)^***	(-3.50)^***	(-0.26)
常数项	3.6077	1.7264	1.0475	0.2250
	(140.13)^***	(1.91)^*	(1.00)	(0.24)
个体固定效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
时间固定效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
拟合系数R²	0.9212	0.9365	0.9367	0.9367
统计量F	308.65	305.80	291.79	291.79
组别	29	29	29	29
观测量	464	464	464	464

变量	样本	平均值		偏差比例(%)	t检验
变量	样本	处理组	对照组	偏差比例(%)	t值	P值
lnGDP	匹配前	9.133	8.520	56.8	5.89	0.00
	匹配后	8.465	8.491	-2.6	0.20	0.85
lnrpeople	匹配前	5.757	4.996	61.1	6.26	0.00
	匹配后	5.726	5.709	1.7	0.14	0.89
Urban	匹配前	0.507	0.487	13.2	1.36	0.17
	匹配后	0.439	0.487	-4.8	1.65	0.11
Forest	匹配前	0.355	0.279	42.7	4.44	0.00
	匹配后	0.286	0.279	0.7	0.23	0.82
lnA	匹配前	0.691	0.635	19.5	2.02	0.04
	匹配后	0.782	0.745	3.7	1.18	0.24
Rindustry	匹配前	0.888	1.077	-41.2	-4.24	0.00
	匹配后	0.803	1.019	-21.5	1.86	0.07

统计项目		平均值		t检验
统计项目		系数估计	标准误	t值	P值
政策实施前	对照组	4.725
	处理组	4.859
	差分	0.134	0.122	1.10	0.27
政策实施后	对照组	6.133
	处理组	5.574
	差分	-0.559	0.224	2.50	0.013^**
平均处理效应	双重差分	-0.693	0.255	2.72	0.007^***

分析项目	经济增长效应	产业结构效应	技术进步效应	生态保护效应
相互项	-0.0926	0.1117	0.0005	0.0854
	(-5.04)^***	(3.73)^***	(0.13)	(2.56)^**
控制变量	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
个体固定效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
时间固定效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
拟合系数R²	0.9963	0.7063	0.9952	0.7666
统计量F	1331.78	13.63	1172.89	17.46
组别	8	8	8	8
观测量	128	128	128	128

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