Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (11): 2362-2379.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202011007

• Land Use and Agricaltural Development • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Vulnerability to biological disasters: A novel field of cultivated land use transition research

SONG Xiaoqing1,2(), SHEN Yajing1, WANG Xiong1, LI Xinyi1   

  1. 1. Research Center for Spatial Planning and Human-Environment System Simulation, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
    2. Hunan Key Lab of Land & Resource Evaluation & Utilization, Changsha 410007, China
  • Received:2020-05-06 Revised:2020-08-27 Online:2020-11-25 Published:2021-01-25
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41401191);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41871094);Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education Planning Fund(18YJAZH078);Key Research and Development Program of Hunan Province(2019SK2101);The Open Fund of Hunan Key Laboratory of Land Resources Evaluation and Utilization(SYS-MT-202002)


There is an urgent need to explore a novel field to enhance the comprehensive research of cultivated land use transition. Simultaneously, few studies on the coupling research of cultivated land use pattern and function transition have been done so far. Based on these considerations, we aim at presenting a novel field of cultivated land use transition research from the perspective of cultivated land use vulnerability to biological disasters (CLUVBD). First, this study integrates the motivations of profit-seeking and loss-avoiding and induced substitution in agricultural production from the perspective of agricultural biological disasters, thus establishing a theoretical framework of the transition in CLUVBD based on the socio-ecological interaction logic of "socio-economic environment - cultivated land use - feedback of biological disasters - disaster prevention and control". Then, CLUVBD transition was diagnosed and analyzed at the national, regional, and provincial levels between 1988 and 2017 using the logic growth model, single-factor simulation, and panel data regression model. Results show that CLUVBD transition is remarkable at both national and provincial levels. The value of CLUVBD at the national level firstly increased from 15.33% to 22.45% in 1988-2009 and then decreased from 22.40% to 19.49% in 2010-2017. The transition at the provincial level shows two typical pathways. Decrease of CLUVBD is mainly derived from the decline in exposure due to the narrowing of urban-rural income ratio and the increase in cultivated land area per capita of agricultural employee, followed by the increase of adaptive capacity due to the increase of retrieved grain loss ratio and the failure ratio of biological disaster prevention. Meanwhile, as CLUVBD value turns to decrease, the sensitivity increases, which is mainly due to the decline in crop diversity and the increase of fertilizer use intensity in cultivated land. The study demonstrates that CLUVBD is expected to become a novel field of comprehensive study on cultivated land use transition. In addition, the policy proposals on CLUVBD control are also discussed.

Key words: land use transition, cultivated land, biological disasters, induced substitution in agricultural production, vulnerability, spatio-temporal change