资源型城市演化阶段识别及其发展特征

doi:10.11821/dlxb202010010

Abstract

Abstract:

Resource-based cities refer to the cities where the exploiting and processing of natural resources, such as minerals and forests, dominate industrial development. This special type of city is obviously staged during its development. From a new perspective of urban spatial structure, this paper quantitatively splits the development stages of resource-based cities based on the data of night lights images and uses the methods, such as the threshold panel model and non-parametric estimation. To delve into the impacts of resource-based industries on the evolution of urban spatial structure, as well as the timing of transformation policy design, different effects of the spatial agglomeration of central urban areas on urban growth and transformation by development stages are also analyzed in this paper. The results suggest that: the resource-based cities are relatively internally fragmented with noticeable differences among resource types and individuals, such as oil and gas resource type, and ferrous metal resource type. This paper attempts to adopt the proportion of mining employees as the indicator. Some 1.9% and 31.0% can act as the tipping points to divide different development stages of resource-based cities. The resource-based cities are split into four stages of development given two threshold values. In various stages of development, the correlation between the concentration of social and economic factors in the central urban area and the urban economic growth is noticeably different. Furthermore, 'the mature stage' has acted as a critical turning phase in the transformation of resource-based cities.

Key words: spatial structure, phased characteristics, threshold effects, resource-based cities

LU Shuo, ZHANG Wenzhong, YU Jianhui, LI Jiaming. The identification of spatial evolution stage of resource-based cities and its development characteristics[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(10): 2180-2191.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Double threshold estimates and confidence intervals

门槛值	估计值	95%置信区间
门槛值 $γ 1'$	0.019	[0.015, 0.446]
门槛值 $γ 2'$	0.310	[0.009, 0.333]

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Double threshold model estimation results

变量	系数估计值	标准误差	T值	95%置信区间
$x it I g it < 0.019$	0.652	0.378	1.470	[0.502, 0.716]
$x it I 0.019 ≤ g it < 0.310$	-0.521	0.061	-8.520	[-0.640, -0.401]
$x it I g it ≥ 0.310$	-0.296	0.043	-6.810	[-0.381, -0.211]
_cons	0.397	0.008	48.650	[0.381, 0.413]

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Double threshold model robustness test

变量	系数估计值	标准误差	T值	95%置信区间
$x it I g it < 0.018$	1.692	0.381	4.440	[2.440, 0.944]
$x it I 0.018 ≤ g it < 0.390$	-0.531	0.060	-8.910	[-0.647, -0.413]
$x it I g it ≥ 0.390$	-0.268	0.046	-5.840	[-0.358, -0.198]
_cons	0.397	0.008	48.780	[0.381, 0.413]

Tab. 4

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

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门槛检验	临界值
门槛检验	F值	P值	1%	5%	10%
单门槛检验	12.645^*	0.053	19.655	12.909	10.550
双门槛检验	50.551^***	0.000	-0.642	-5.355	-9.233
三重门槛检验	0.000	0.651	0.000	0.000	0.000

The identification of spatial evolution stage of resource-based cities and its development characteristics

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