Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (10): 2164-2179.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202010009
• Urban and Regional Development • Previous Articles Next Articles
SUN Yizhong1,2,3(), YANG Jing1,2,3, SONG Shuying1,2,3, ZHU Jie4, DAI Junjie5
Received:
2019-11-08
Revised:
2020-06-09
Online:
2020-10-25
Published:
2020-12-25
Supported by:
SUN Yizhong, YANG Jing, SONG Shuying, ZHU Jie, DAI Junjie. Modeling of multilevel vector cellular automata and its simulation of land use change[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(10): 2164-2179.
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Tab. 3
Optimal impact range and parameters of Logistic regression model
道路 | 距离(m) | 分级道路影响参数 | 最显著影响 范围(m) | 分级道路影响参数 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
回归系数 | 回归常数 | 卡方值 | 回归系数 | 回归常数 | |||
高速路 | 250 | 2.407 | -4.459 | 2.407 | 1000 | -1.668 | 2.879 |
500 | 0.002 | -0.040 | 0.002 | ||||
750 | 4.977 | -1.076 | 4.977 | ||||
1000 | 4.981 | -0.676 | 4.981 | ||||
快速路 | 250 | -5.174 | -1.996 | 2.228 | 500 | -1.346 | |
500 | -1.346 | -2.413 | 6.241 | ||||
750 | -0.926 | -2.490 | 5.074 | ||||
1000 | -0.609 | -2.575 | 4.569 | ||||
干线公路 | 250 | -1.668 | -2.922 | 1.663 | 750 | -4.459 | |
500 | -1.136 | -2.975 | 0.262 | ||||
750 | -0.523 | -3.077 | 5.638 | ||||
1000 | -0.086 | -3.198 | 3.936 |
Tab. 4
Land-use transition matrices of different districts in Jiangyin City
片区 | 用地类型 | 用地类型 | 片区 | 用地类型 | 用地类型 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ||||
市域 范围 | 1 | 0.7244 | 0.4961 | 0.5237 | 0.5413 | 中心 片区 | 1 | 0.5305 | 0.5765 | 0.4053 | 0.3094 |
2 | 0.0565 | 0.5439 | 0.0025 | 0.0557 | 2 | 0.1574 | 0.5764 | 0.0135 | 0.2155 | ||
3 | 0.2149 | 0.0394 | 0.6148 | 0.4030 | 3 | 0.0874 | 0.0324 | 0.5682 | 0.4751 | ||
4 | 0.7286 | 0.4646 | 0.4738 | 0.8251 | 4 | 0.7552 | 0.3911 | 0.5812 | 0.8887 | ||
澄西 片区 | 1 | 0.7176 | 0.6332 | 0.3400 | 0.7916 | 澄东 片区 | 1 | 0.6770 | 0.3333 | 0.4370 | 0.5457 |
2 | 0.0023 | 0.2536 | 0.0005 | 0.0014 | 2 | 0.0178 | 0.6673 | 0.0037 | 0.0379 | ||
3 | 0.1394 | 0.0309 | 0.5742 | 0.2070 | 3 | 0.2132 | 0.0473 | 0.6151 | 0.4164 | ||
4 | 0.8584 | 0.3359 | 0.6595 | 0.8546 | 4 | 0.769 | 0.6193 | 0.5593 | 0.8119 | ||
澄南 片区 | 1 | 0.8561 | 0.2582 | 0.7488 | 0.5366 | 澄东南 片区 | 1 | 0.855 | 0.7424 | 0.5604 | 0.5303 |
2 | 0.0103 | 0.1947 | 0 | 0.0203 | 2 | 0.0003 | 0.1852 | 0 | 0.0232 | ||
3 | 0.3635 | 0.0329 | 0.7325 | 0.4431 | 3 | 0.3959 | 0 | 0.8172 | 0.4465 | ||
4 | 0.6263 | 0.7089 | 0.2521 | 0.7834 | 4 | 0.6038 | 0.2576 | 0.4396 | 0.8064 |
Tab. 6
Accuracy assessment of multi-level vector CA of different districts in Jiangyin City in 2017
市域范围 | 中心城区 | 澄西片区 | 澄东片区 | 澄南片区 | 澄东南片区 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
现状 | 模拟 | 现状 | 模拟 | 现状 | 模拟 | 现状 | 模拟 | 现状 | 模拟 | 现状 | 模拟 | |
建设用地面积(km2) | 419.45 | 425.37 | 227.19 | 226.27 | 28.47 | 29.59 | 80.84 | 80.93 | 42.19 | 43.51 | 40.76 | 45.07 |
FoM(%) | 24.11 | 28.08 | 25.70 | 23.46 | 19.87 | 20.27 | ||||||
Kappa | 0.82 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.84 | 0.82 | 0.82 |
Tab. 7
The statistical result of land-use change simulation of different districts in Jiangyin City in 2022
市域范围 | 中心城区 | 澄西片区 | 澄东片区 | 澄南片区 | 澄东南片区 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022年预测建设用地面积(km2) | 431.87 | 227.45 | 30.96 | 82.65 | 45.45 | 45.36 |
2017年实际建设用地面积(km2) | 419.45 | 227.19 | 28.47 | 80.84 | 42.19 | 40.76 |
预测增量(km2) | 12.42 | 0.26 | 2.49 | 1.81 | 3.26 | 4.60 |
增长率(%) | 2.96 | 0.11 | 8.74 | 2.24 | 7.73 | 11.29 |
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