基于多主体模型的典型区域退耕还林工程实施空间模拟

doi:10.11821/dlxb202009012

Abstract

Abstract:

Landuse change is an essential driving force of global climate change. Dynamic simulations are helpful for understanding and explaining the changing rules and characteristics of the land system. The "Grain to Green Program" (GTGP) is a critical contributing factor to landuse change in China's mountainous areas. Presently, the deficiency of integrated social and spatial approaches in the simulation of the "GTGP" limits the spatial accuracy of the social benefits simulation and its subsequent research. The accurate simulation of the "GTGP", by combining social and spatial approaches, can provide scientific evidence for the completion of this project. Taking Tongdu Town, Dongchuan district in Yunnan province as the research area, this study identified three kinds of agents: farmers, farmer households, and the government based on census, geographical information and field survey data. In addition, this research constructed a regional spatial simulation of the "GTGP" implementation based on agent-based model. It conducted spatial simulations of Tongdu Town from 2011 to 2015, including the annual income of farmer households, the willingness of farmer households and the government towards the program, and the spatial processes implementation of the "GTGP". The results showed that the implementation of the "GTGP" was mainly related to the slope, the traffic, and the income of farmer households. Specifically, 81.47% of the "GTGP" program conducted in this areas was on slopes of 25°-30°, and 56.37% of them was 0-2 km away from the road with convenient traffic conditions, and the proportion of the "GTGP" areas with low annual income of farmers was relatively high. The correlation between "GTGP" areas and soil fertility was low. The implementation of the project significantly enhanced the revenue of the study area, with an average household income increase of 1475 yuan from 2010 to 2015. The spatial accuracy of the simulation results was 91.12%. The spatial simulation methods constructed in this study can provide references for the implementation of the "GTGP" in other regions, which can contribute to applications of ecological protection and targeted poverty alleviation programs in China.

Key words: Grain to Green Program, agent-based model, land use, Tongdu Town, mountainous areas

YANG Weishi, DAI Erfu, ZHENG Du, DONG Yuxiang, YIN Le, MA Liang, WANG Junxiong, PAN Lihu, QIN Shipeng. Spatial simulation of "Grain to Green Program" implementation in a typical region based on agent-based model[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1983-1995.

Figures/Tables 13

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Spatial simulated data list for the regional spatial simulation of "Grain to Green Program"

数据类别	数据项	数据来源
主体属性数据	农户家庭规模比例	人口普查数据、实地调研
	年龄结构
	生育率(分年龄段)
	死率亡(分年龄段)
	农业人口总量
	打工收入(分年龄段)
耕地收入数据	同海拔最高肥力耕地最大年收入( $Incom e Agri · Max$ )	实地调研
	耕地坡度系数(α_SD)
	耕地肥力等级系数(α_SQ)
	耕地年交通费用(Cost_Tra)
	单位耕地最低需求劳动力(Labor_Min)
地理环境数据	海拔	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心、遥感影像处理、部门调研等
	坡度等级
	土壤肥力等级
	土地利用类型
	离公路网距离
	离城市中心距离
	行政区划
退耕数据	退耕还林工程面积指标	部门调研

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

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References 29

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Spatial simulation of "Grain to Green Program" implementation in a typical region based on agent-based model

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