1960—2019年西北地区气候变化中的Hiatus现象及特征

doi:10.11821/dlxb202009003

Abstract

Abstract:

The mean global surface air temperature data indicate that there might be a global warming hiatus during 1998-2012. However, whether it existed around the world is still controversial, and the characteristics of the hiatus in Northwest China remain unclear. Based on the in-situ observation data of air temperature from 1960 to 2019, we analyzed the characteristic of hiatus in Northwest China through the cumulative anomaly curve, the Mann-Kendall test, Move-t test, the Yamamoto test and the linear trend estimation. The results showed that the statistically significant change-point of the annual mean air temperature in Northwest China was in 1986, 1996, and 2012, respectively. The air temperature suddenly rose in 1996, and then kept stable from 1998 to 2012. The annual mean air temperature showed an obvious cooling trend by -0.20 ℃ decade^-1 in Northwest China from 1998 to 2012. Meanwhile, the annual mean air temperature in winter had the largest decrease rate and that of summer increased. The east of Northwest China displayed the most significant cooling during 1998-2012, and the Tibetan Plateau was still heating up at the same time. The air temperature of Northwest China rose substantially after 2012, especially in winter, and southern Xinjiang experienced the strongest warming during 2012-2019. Generally speaking, the warming hiatus was evident in Northwest China during 1998-2012 except the Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the marked upward trend in air temperature after the hiatus in Northwest China due to the crucial environment.

Key words: climate change, warming hiatus, mutation test, Northwest China

LI Zhe, DING Yongjian, CHEN Aijiao, ZHANG Zhihua, ZHANG Shiqiang. Characteristics of warming hiatus of the climate change in Northwest China from 1960 to 2019[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1845-1859.

Figures/Tables 12

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年份	站点数目(个)	年份	站点数目(个)	年份	站点数目(个)
1960年	117	1966年	121	1979—1980年	165
1961年	118	1967年	122	1981—2017年	166
1962—1964年	119	1968—1970年	123	2018—2019年	124
1965年	120	1971—1978年	124

		累积距平曲线	M-K检验	滑动t检验	Yamamoto检验
全区	年均温	1996	2001^**	1966^, 1986^, 1996^, 2012^	1966^, 1986^, 1996^*, 2012^
	春季	1996	2004^**	1974^, 1996^*	1974^, 1996^
	夏季	1996	2000^**	1996^**	1996^**
	秋季	1997	1997^**	1965^, 1987^, 1997^*	1965^*, 1987^
	冬季	1986, 1997	1996^**	1986^, 1997^	1986^, 1997^*
一区		1996	1994^**	1988^, 1996^	1988^*, 1996^
二区		1996	1997^**	1996^*, 2014^	1996^*, 2014^
三区		1997	1997^**	1986^, 1997^	1986^, 1997^
四区		1996	1992^**	1966^, 1986^, 1996^, 2012^	1966^*, 1986^, 1996^, 2012^
五区		1996	1995^**	1986^, 1996^, 2012^*	1986^, 1996^, 2012^*
六区		1996	1997^**	1986^, 1996^, 2012^**	1996^, 2012^*

时间序列	1960—2019年	1960—1998年	1998—2012年	2012—2019年
年均温	0.26^**	0.08	-0.20	1.04
春季均温	0.29^**	-0.05	-0.14	1.48
夏季均温	0.24^**	0.03	0.16	0.48
秋季均温	0.25^**	0.13	-0.13	1.00
冬季均温	0.26^**	0.19	-0.93	1.96

时间序列	1960—2019年	1960—1998年	1998—2012年	2012—2019年
全区	0.26^**	0.08	-0.20	1.04
一区	0.28^**	0.19	-0.18	1.00
二区	0.26^**	0.10	-0.16	1.34
三区	0.35^**	0.19^**	0.18	0.63
四区	0.39^**	0.32^**	-0.41	0.32
五区	0.32^**	0.21^**	-0.42	0.60
六区	0.23^**	0.10	-0.47^*	0.63

Characteristics of warming hiatus of the climate change in Northwest China from 1960 to 2019

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