1950—2015年中国棉花生产时空动态变化

doi:10.11821/dlxb202008010

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the distribution data of cotton production in China from 1950 to 2015, the study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal changes and gravity center migration path in cotton production, area and yield in China by methods of time-series trend and spatial analysis. Then, contribution rates of cotton area and yield to the changes of cotton production are quantified. The results indicate that: (1) China's cotton production and yield showed an overall upward trend over the past 65 years. Among them, the production increased by 521.44×10⁴ t and the yield increased by 1381.83 kg/hm². After five periods of violent fluctuations, stable development, and three ups and downs, the cotton area was basically the same compared with the year 1950. (2) There was a large regional gap between cotton yield and cotton area, but the overall trend was increasing. The variation trend of cotton yield per unit area was stable, among which the annual fluctuation of cotton production in the inland cotton area of northwest China was the largest. (3) From 1950 to 2015, nearly 87% of China's cotton-growing regions increased their production, about 63% of the regions decreased cotton area, and more than 70% of the regions increased cotton yield. The production and yield of the three major cotton areas have increased, but the growth rate has been decreasing. The northwest inland cotton area had the smallest shrinkage, and it was also the main area for China's cotton area growth. (4) China's cotton production has formed a "southeast-northwest" pattern. The main production area has changed from the Yellow River basin to the northwest inland; the cotton production and area center of gravity have moved to the northwest, with a total moving distance of 1947 km and 1398 km, respectively. From 2010 to 2015, the moving speed was the highest, reaching 140 km/a and 159 km/a, respectively; the production center of cotton in the northwest inland area moved from Hotan to Aksu. The basin cotton area was moved from Lu'an to Huanggang, and the Yellow River basin cotton area was moved from Handan to Liaocheng. (5) The contribution of national cotton production has gradually changed from yield dominance to area dominance. From the perspective of cotton regions, cotton areas in the Yangtze and Yellow river basins have gradually changed from yield dominance to area dominance, and the northwest inland cotton areas have been driven by area.

Key words: cotton, production, spatial analysis, spatio-temporal changes, contribution, China

MA Chunyue, Mamat Sawut, YAO Jie, Gulnur Isak. Spatio-temporal changes of cotton production in China from 1950 to 2015[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(8): 1699-1710.

Figures/Tables 11

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References 26

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变异系数	1950年	1965年	1980年	1995年	2010年	2015年
产量	1.82^*	1.70^*	1.50^*	1.38^*	1.88^*	3.02^*
面积	1.59	1.58	1.48	1.33	1.67	2.57
单产	0.54	1.63	1.23	0.83	0.40	0.83

变异系数	长江流域棉区	黄河流域棉区	西北内陆棉区
产量	0.43	0.52	1.52^*
面积	0.20	0.24	1.10^*
单产	0.44	0.55	0.74^*

时段	长江流域棉区			西北内陆棉区			黄河流域棉区
时段	面积	单产	面积单产共同作用	面积	单产	面积单产共同作用	面积	单产	面积单产共同作用
1950—1965年	22.61	30.27	28.74	52.38	9.52	15.87	26.85	48.61	18.98
1965—1980年	18.77	46.74	16.86	34.92	26.98	19.05	20.37	52.78	22.22
1980—1995年	30.65	37.55	15.33	47.62	19.05	20.63	50.93	30.56	13.43
1995—2010年	55.56	19.16	16.86	61.90	9.52	26.98	62.04	17.13	17.13
2010—2015年	57.47	26.44	9.20	66.67	9.52	14.29	68.06	11.11	8.33

Spatio-temporal changes of cotton production in China from 1950 to 2015

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