北京城市老年贫困人口识别与空间分布

doi:10.11821/dlxb202008001

Abstract

Abstract:

Poverty among older people in urban areas is growing along with population ageing and urbanization in China, but the absence of proper indices and method to measure urban elderly poverty brings difficulty to the understanding of the spatial pattern of elderly poverty in cities and policy making in poverty reduction. It is necessary to consider the association of elderly poverty with education, health, family relationship and social support levels of older people and set poverty cutoff more appropriately. With a factor analysis method, we develop a resource-based poverty index to identify poor older residents on the basis of survey data in eight typical residential communities in Beijing. Then, the elderly poverty rates for different residential communities are estimated and the spatial patterns of urban elderly poverty are investigated. It is found that, (1) resource, health, independence and age factors interpret the variation of older residents, among which the score of resource factor constitutes an appropriate indicator of urban elderly poverty. (2) Elderly poverty rate differs significantly for different types of residential communities. With the spatial distribution data of various communities being considered, the poverty rate of elderly population in Beijing is estimated to be 9.55%. (3) The elderly poverty rate of town centers away from the central city is the highest and the poverty rate drops down from the outer to inner areas of the central city gradually. The density of the elderly in poverty, on the other hand, goes to the highest in town centers and the inner city areas, followed by outer central city and the fringe of the central city. These results provide evidences for the formulation of urban policies against elderly poverty in the city.

Key words: elderly poverty, spatial difference, poverty index, aging, urban communities, Beijing

GAO Xiaolu, WU Danxian, YAN Bingqiu. Measure and distribution of urban elderly in poverty: An empirical study in Beijing[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(8): 1557-1571.

Figures/Tables 8

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Comparison of different thresholds for poverty line

贫困线门槛		≤ -0.5倍标准差			≤ -1.0倍标准差			≤ -1.5倍标准差			≤ -2.0倍标准差
贫困样本总数(个)		197(31.8%)			82(13.2%)			35(5.7%）			8(1.3%)
属性变量	水平		贫困样本数(个)	贫困比例	排序		贫困样本数(个)	贫困比例	排序		贫困样本数(个)	贫困比例	排序	贫困样本数(个)	贫困比例	排序
年龄(岁)	< 60	55	0.382	1	25	0.174	1	10	0.069	1	0	0.000	4
	60~64	58	0.360	2	18	0.112	5	10	0.062	2	2	0.012	2
	65~69	26	0.295	4	10	0.114	4	4	0.045	5	1	0.011	3
	70~79	45	0.265	5	21	0.124	3	8	0.047	4	5	0.029	1
	≥ 80	18	0.321	3	8	0.143	2	3	0.054	3	0	0.000	4
性别	男	59	0.253	2	17	0.073	2	8	0.034	2	2	0.009	2
	女	138	0.358	1	65	0.168	1	27	0.070	1	6	0.016	1
居住安排	独自生活	21	0.309	3	6	0.088	2	2	0.029	3	0	0.000	3
	他人同住	2	0.333	2	0	0.000	4	0	0.000	4	0	0.000	3
	老人同住	62	0.250	4	20	0.081	3	11	0.044	2	2	0.008	2
	子女同住	112	0.377	1	56	0.189	1	22	0.074	1	6	0.020	1
人均可支配收入 (元/月)	≤ 1000	77	0.928	1	52	0.627	1	31	0.373	1	8	0.096	1
	1001~3000	118	0.459	2	30	0.117	2	4	0.016	2	0	0.000	2
	3001~5000	2	0.010	3	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	2
	5001~10000	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	2
	> 10000	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	2
文化程度	1	40	1.000	1	33	0.825	1	21	0.525	1	7	0.175	1
	2	138	0.505	2	47	0.172	2	14	0.051	2	1	0.004	2
	3	18	0.101	3	2	0.011	3	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	3
	4	1	0.014	4	0	0.000	4	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	3
	5	0	0.000	5	0	0.000	4	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	3
身体健康	非常健康	103	0.376	1	55	0.201	1	26	0.095	1	8	0.029	1
	基本健康	82	0.281	2	23	0.079	3	9	0.031	2	0	0.000	2
	部分自理	11	0.250	3	3	0.068	4	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	2
	无法自理	1	0.111	4	1	0.111	2	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	2
精神健康	非常健康	100	0.266	3	37	0.098	3	14	0.037	3	1	0.003	3
	基本健康	92	0.388	2	41	0.173	2	19	0.080	2	6	0.025	2
	部分自理	5	0.833	1	4	0.667	1	2	0.333	1	1	0.167	1
	无法自理	0	0.000	4	0	0.000	4	0	0.000	4	0	0.000	4
健康支出	1	106	0.555	1	69	0.361	1	33	0.173	1	8	0.042	1
	2	43	0.352	2	8	0.066	2	2	0.016	2	0	0.000	2
	3	23	0.193	3	3	0.025	3	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	2
	4	19	0.188	4	2	0.020	4	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	2
	5	6	0.077	5	0	0.000	5	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	2
	6	0	0.000	6	0	0.000	5	0	0.000	3	0	0.000	2

Tab. 3

Fig. 1

Tab. 4

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 5

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变量	定义		有效样本(N = 619)
变量	定义		样本数(个)	比例(%)
居住社区类型	R1	中心城区混合社区,西城区白纸坊街道里仁街	101	16.3
居住社区类型	R2	廉租房社区,东城区东花市街道广渠门北里小区	62	10.0
	R3	旧城四合院街坊社区,西城区什刹海街道	97	15.7
	R4	单位大院,海淀区万寿路街道万寿路5号院	84	13.6
	R5	经济适用房社区,昌平区回龙观街道龙腾苑6区	98	15.8
	R6	普通商品房社区,朝阳区平房地区国美第一城小区	94	15.2
	R7	县镇老旧社区,昌平区东小口镇小辛庄	66	10.7
	R8	城乡混合社区,丰台区南苑地区大红门街道	17	2.7
年龄(岁)	1	< 60	144	23.3
年龄(岁)	2	60~64	161	26.0
	3	65~69	88	14.2
	4	70~79	170	27.5
	5	≥ 80	56	9.0
性别	1	男	233	37.6
	2	女	386	62.4
教育程度	1	小学以下	40	6.5
	2	小学毕业	273	44.1
	3	初中毕业	178	28.8
	4	高中毕业	69	11.1
	5	大专以上	59	9.5
人均可支配收入 (元/月)	1	≤ 1000	83	13.4
人均可支配收入 (元/月)	2	1001~3000	257	41.5
	3	3001~5000	204	33.0
	4	5001~10000	64	10.3
	5	> 10000	11	1.8
住房面积(m²)	最小值		8
	中值		70
	最大值		1000
健康支出(元/月)	1	≤ 100	191	30.9
	2	101~300	122	19.7
	3	301~500	119	19.2
	4	501~1000	101	16.3
	5	1001~3000	78	12.6
	6	> 3000	8	1.3
身体健康	1	非常健康	274	44.3
	2	基本健康	292	47.2
	3	部分自理	44	7.1
	4	无法自理	9	1.5
精神健康	1	非常健康	376	60.7
	2	基本健康	237	38.3
	3	部分自理	6	1.0
	4	无法自理	0	0.0
居住安排^*	1	独自生活	68	11.0
	2	他人同住	6	1.0
	3	老人同住	248	40.1
	4	子女同住	297	48.0

		主成分				矩阵旋转后的主成分因子
		1	2	3	4	1.资源	2.健康	3.独立性	4.性别
固有值/分散		2.013	1.646	1.205	0.900	1.716	1.694	1.279	1.074
百分比		22.36	18.29	13.38	10.00	19.07	18.82	14.21	11.93
累计百分比		22.36	40.65	54.04	64.04	19.07	37.89	52.10	64.04
因子矩阵	年龄	0.395	-0.241	-0.136	-0.070	0.028	0.454	-0.377	-0.295
	性别	-0.259	-0.100	0.443	0.741	-0.161	0.014	0.037	0.924
	居住安排	-0.226	0.141	0.536	-0.629	-0.150	0.059	0.895	-0.105
	住房面积	-0.202	0.418	0.381	0.015	0.289	-0.205	0.574	0.300
	人均可支配收入	0.330	0.519	-0.006	0.131	0.821	0.035	0.009	-0.045
	文化程度	0.296	0.510	-0.098	0.061	0.775	-0.045	-0.011	-0.134
	身体健康	0.451	-0.196	0.381	-0.098	0.105	0.801	0.014	-0.065
	精神健康	0.254	-0.396	0.325	-0.014	-0.237	0.672	-0.065	0.057
	健康养老支出	0.470	0.111	0.304	0.141	0.492	0.588	-0.028	0.071

ID	居住社区类型	样本数 (个)	贫困样本数 (个)	老年贫困人口比例(%)	95%置信区间 (%)	人均可支配收入≤ 1000 元/月的老年人口比例(%)
R1	中心城区混合社区	101	6	5.9	2.8~12.4	5.0
R2	廉租房社区	62	10	16.1	9.0~27.2	8.1
R3	旧城四合院街坊社区	97	4	4.1	1.6~10.1	3.1
R4	单位大院	84	0	-	-	3.6
R5	经济适用房社区	98	5	5.1	2.2~11.4	10.2
R6	普通商品房社区	94	10	10.6	5.9~18.5	20.2
R7	县镇老旧社区	66	38	57.6	45.6~68.8	47.0
R8	城乡混合社区	17	9	52.9	31.0~73.8	41.2

功能分区	地域范围	面积（km²)	城市老年人口^*(千人)	城市老年贫困人口(千人)	城市老年贫困比(%)	城市老年贫困人口密度(人/km²)
首都功能核心区	东城、西城的32个街道	92.5	364.3	19.1	5.24	206.5
城市功能拓展区	朝阳、海淀、丰台、石景山的68个街道	594.7	929.5	60.1	6.47	101.1
城乡结合部	朝阳、海淀、丰台、石景山的25个地区办事处	445.2	111.2	20.4	18.35	45.8
中心城区以外	其他8区的22个街道	223.3	134.9	47.4	35.14	212.3
研究区合计	147个行政单元	1355.7	1539.9	147.0	9.55	108.4

Measure and distribution of urban elderly in poverty: An empirical study in Beijing

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